Milhouse
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Posts posted by Milhouse
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That is the plus point about the current outlook. That is that it will be still dry useable weather for most with any outdoor activities being unaffected. Temperatures in the south still look like reaching 20c so not too bad. Its not like 2012 when we had to wait till the 23rd of July for our summer.
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There is certainly no heatwave on the way, Chasing cloud and a few showers this week before we see the high declining out west and seeing more unsettled conditions ushering in. Ecm looks awful for Summer at T+240......
True it does look uninspiring with a cool northerly air stream but its FI and the 0z mean doesnt really support such an outcome so maybe its one for the bin.
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I was in Scarborough on Wednesday. Was glorious with temps around 22c which is very good going for a seaside resort on the North Sea. Next week will see a different wind direction so temperatures will be pegged back at nearer 15-17c but its going to be dry which is good.
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ECM mean showing the high pressure is going to stick around for a while yet. Wind directions looks to be north/northwest round the top of the high so the best temperatures are to be found along the south coast. Where winds veer more northwest instead of north thats when eastern parts would see temperatures recover.
GEM ends on a stunning note with high pressure anchored over the UK similar to July 2013.
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Not the ideal position of the high though on the UKMO. Its a case of the charts looking better than the conditions that it would actually produce.
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Its pretty unlikely at the moment, we'd require June to finish on 16.4C for that. 15.3C would put us in 2nd place though.
The previous highest first 6 months on record was 2007 with a mean of 9.70C.
Next month things get interesting though as June and July only need a total 0.6C positive anomaly between them for the warmest first 7 months on record.
Thankyou for confirming that
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The GEFS 0z mean indicating a much needed drier period is just about to begin and could last a while too with high pressure becoming slow moving across the UK bringing plentiful dry and pleasant conditions. Its exact position will affect where the best of the warmth will be experienced. The general idea seems to be that the E and SE will be best for warmth this week. On into the weekend the high will slip westwards shifting the warmest temperatures to the S and SW.
Makes a change to slow moving low pressure
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Warmest first 6 months of the year a possibility?
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Don't want everywhere do die off completely like 1976 but would like to see the familiar signs of a good summer emerging such as the grass slowing down and turning slightly yellow instead of being rampant as its been this year so far. Several days of baking are required from the strong June sun.
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Starting to get irritated by this rain now! I was hoping yesterday and today were going to be dry but both have had heavy downpours which, despite being the most interesting form of rain, are only adding to the growing rainfall total for June. I want to see rock hard ground, no puddles and yellowing grass at this time of the year.
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And if the UKMO went beyond t+144 it would likely push the high slightly northeast which would assert its dominance over the UK. It wound mean cooler air filtering in from the NE across southern parts but it would be dry for all which is a plus after all the rain of late.
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This is the closest the GEFS 12z mean gets to a northerly. In the mid term it has a much stronger ridge developing during next week as well compared to what the 6z had. Ties in nicely with the improved ECM.
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By the end of the week all parts would be settled and there is no indication at all for a northerly developing at the weekend on this run. Very interesting stuff.
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A better ridge of high pressure on the ECM too so, despite my initial surprise at seeing the GFS, it has some support.
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Sadly the UKMO sticks with the northerly outcome but on the plus side look at all the high pressure waiting in the wings out to the west.
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Much nicer from the GFS 12z this evening, took me rather by suprise i must admit. A much more robust high bringing more widespread warm and settled weather to end the week.
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And on the flip side, last week looked horrendous but was it really that bad. The truth is with showers you cant really tell until the day itself but NW England wont be the best place to be next week i will admit. It will feel summerlike in the SE though.
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UKMO showing some signs that a longer settled spell may develop in the not too distant future with low pressure in the Atlantic looking in no hurry to affect the UK. Its a fine balance though as the lowering heights over Scandinavia do promote some sort of northerly airstream. Its a question of whether and how quickly high pressure can push far enough eastwards to cut off the cool flow and maintain some pleasant summery conditions like what GEM is showing.
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GFS coming round to previous gem runs although all 3 models at day 8 are different in how progressive they are this morning.
And now the GEM has high pressure firmly in charge instead so plenty of opportunity for changes to occur towards a warmer more settled outcome. Meanwhile the upcoming week looks mixed but it will continue warm.
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Acceptable early summer weather on the way looking at the models tonight A fair bit of dry weather around and temps in the low 20s. In a lot of the good summers early June wasnt much to right home about so we arent doing too badly. A far cry from the poor outlook about a week ago that got all the doom mongers all excited.
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Temps would be rising towards the end of next week if the ECM is anything to go by. Perhaps rising into the very warm category before the high slips out into the Atlantic as low pressure topples down, albeit very slowly, from the north. At day 10 most of the country is still fairly warm and settled. GEM in FI has the summer equivalent of a bartlett with direct northerlies bringing upper air temps of below 0c. Not what we need to be seeing as we approach mid summer.
A rather good chart from ECM for next Friday. Dry and very warm for most.
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Looking forward to next week. Ideal set up for providing warmth to us on the east coast so a trip to the beach shouldnt be too chilly. Low 20s in Bridlington as opposed to mid to high teens today with an onshore breeze.
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GFS 6z suggesting many eastern parts will stay dry till late on Saturday.
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CET already in familiar territory, that is above average.
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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Not a bad GFS 12z in all fairness bringing a rather decent weekend with some continental warmth pushing across southern England on Monday and remaining dry for most. Do i detect the Northerly is becoming rather disrupted. Hopefully the trend continues.