Milhouse
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Posts posted by Milhouse
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Yesterday was one of the worst days in Summer i can recall for a very long time. And a look at the radar showed how unlucky the eastern portion of the country was with the front stationary for 12-24 hrs. Much nicer today with plenty of sunshine and a nice breeze.
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A nice bit of heat showing up on the models. Thats what this summer has been missing so far so its nice to finally get something proper summery. After yesterdays deluge here its nice to see better things around the corner.
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For you it might have been nice, but for those who lost their belongings and entire homes to the flooding, it might not have gone down so well.
Quite right. 8000 homes affected by flooding in Hull alone. The 25th June 2007 was a very dark day for this region.
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Its been reasonable i agree, and a long way from 2007 which was the year without a summer here. I still want somewhere to see 30c and the chances are still there looking at this mornings models, but i dont like the way things seem to be heading. We low pressure to stay back in the Atlantic allowing the Azores high to have a chance to build in.
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*Sigh*. Hasn't it been warm enough,for long enough as it is? This excruciatingly tiresome summer seems to have gone on,and on,and on,and on,more than any other before it..... and it's still only early soddin' July. Just needs to go away now.
No it hasnt been warm enough actually. Consistent warmth has been a feature but i'm still waiting for some very warm or hot days.
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GFS 6z has all the building blocks in place for a potential hot spell. Low pressure stalling over iceland, blocking high over Scandinavia and a the Azores high pushing up from the south west. Game on!
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Nah, sunshine and heat along with the odd torrential thunderstorm. The fuzzy feeling from that is much, much better!
Yep, its summer after all. Cold stuff doesnt belong in this time of year and luckily in July it never gets that cold anyway. Im liking the predicted temperatures from the GFS for the upcoming week or so.
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Ecm has been the leader of late.....
Which is good because the latter stages of the ECM 12z mean show the heat building and pressure rising from the south.
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It's very strange that synoptically, we are under low pressure, but the general theme of the weather we have today is more often associated with higher pressure. Beats me, I'm not complaining!
I thought exactly the same today. Ive seen cloudier skies under high pressure than what i saw today. A look at the radar shows very little shower activity for an unsettled looking chart. It could have something to do with the origin of low pressure from the NW rather than the SW.
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ECM has a fairly messy outlook in the latter stages with winds tending to come from an easterly direction. Despite the chart at T+240 looking quite cool it still has 10c 850hpa temps spilling down out of Scandinavia. The possibility of rain coming from the east around midweek needs watching closely though.
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Plenty of warm and humid stuff on the GFS 12z. Rain for most at some point but not a bad week of summerlike conditions. Wont be cold thats for sure.
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The north Norfolk coast is very hit and miss. On days like today with strong southwesterlies it tops the table. But with a light NEly around high pressure you can half the temps seen today, even in July.
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The warmth building all week across the south mostly with Thursday looking a very warm day. Friday sees a breakdown coming into northern and western parts whilst the warmth hangs on across the south.
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Very summerlike end to the GEM.
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Quite stunning from the GFS, considering what it was showing for Friday just a few days ago. Looks like the Euro high has been upgraded in recent runs which is keeping low pressure away to our north.
On into FI we see a renewed build of high pressure from the Azores so i would definately say that prospects have improved as we enter high summer.
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The MOD isnt quite the same without his informative and enthusiastic posts
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Ignoring the dodgy output from the ECM, it throws up a rather good FI too with warm winds wafting up from the SW after a brief unsettled spell at the end of the week. Summer looks like its back on!
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The GFS shows temperatures around the 80F ballpark for Wednesday/Thursday and Friday. UKMO looks less good but still ok.
ECM....... looks like there is some problem with the run.
It does appear that there is an issue with the upper temperatures. Its like all of a sudden they rise for no apparent reason. But thats all thats wrong with it. Its looking very good out to Wednesday with all areas warm and settled. What a turnaround.
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Thursday sees widespread mid 20s
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Good news that both the GFS 12z and UKMO have upgraded the settled and warm weather this week with southern England looking like it will stay dry all week. GFS 12z is now showing temps into the mid 20s which was unthinkable just a few days ago. The breakdown does come but its a brief affair before high pressure moves back in.
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Starting to see signs of low pressure moving away off to the NE in the final stages of the ECM. After the fine spell early next week we should have a better idea of how and when the low pressure later next week will clear out of the way.
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Not a terrible chart for next Thursday with low pressure centred just to the SE of Iceland. North south split likely with warm conditions hanging on in the south.
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Plenty of dry weather to come between Sunday and Wednesday, even Thursday in the south. So plenty of opportunity to get out and about.
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31.3c at Charlwood sometime in August from a plume. 6th August i'll say.
Summer 2014 thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
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A long overdue change in wind direction next week to a light westerly. Lets get some warmth over here!