Milhouse

Sunshine was a bit hazy this morning but the clear blue skies are back this afternoon. Feeling pleasant with light winds and a max of 16.9c.

That chart from last year brings back memories. It was just after the lovely spell of late May and the models were hinting at another settled spell to take us into Summer proper. However as the days passed the troublesome low over Scandinavia remained stuck with the Azores high ridging too far west to be of any use. It only served to reinforce heights over Greenland. Thats how it stayed for the next 7 weeks.

A pleasing GFS 6z it has to be said. Towards the end of the week we will see winds switch round to a more northerly direction but not for the first time this month it will be bringing down warm humid conditions rather than cool ones. Then on into the weekend high pressure builds with Sunday looking the day likely to see more in the way of widespread warm and potentially sunny weather. Then a gradual breakdown into the following week but presssure remaining fairly high.

Its a difficult Spring to give my opinion on but I would say its better compared to last year because despite the cold March it has been a good Spring for getting outdoors. There have been very few washout days and even in the cold March, at least the wind was getting to work drying everything out in preperation for the milder second half of Spring. And 2 nice May bank holidays is not bad either. But compared to 2009-11 it was fairly poor.

Thursday loking a decent day too with warmish uppers over the UK.

Had a few days off after a shocker of an ECM 12z, which made me think we were heading for a dreadful start to June. I come back and things are looking a lot more positive with high pressure from the Azores making a visit towards the end of next week. At the moment it looks like it will orientate itself as so to bring average warmth rather than any notable heat but in light winds it would give most parts a nice start to Summer. Temperatures not that great but a 1030mb high in June would be

Good post Damian. The building blocks are there for a settled start to June. It's just getting low pressure to shift from the near continent that is proving troublesome. The weekend is looking good for most with temperatures recovering to average values or just below as warmer uppers come down from the north behind the cold pool of Thursday and Friday. But it's following the weekend that the ukmo takes a much more settled route than the gfs and ECM.

If we are to see a persistent northeasterly soon then please let it be like June 1995. Sadly, Horrible for us on the east coast but the mid to high 20s in the southwest. The rest of Summer was a cracker.

But we are 10 days from summer, why should the discussion be aimed towards the cold lovers all 12 months of the year. The past few days have brought some more seasonal temperatures that one would expect at this time of year. Why should i hate that and want something colder like what weve had for the past 8 or so months.

Point taken TWS but the GEFS ensembles look decent with the op on the cool side of the mean for much of the run. Admittedly it looks like a NE flow is favoured but with warm uppers it will feel warm the further you go from the north sea. June 1988 was actually above average temperature wise. 0.9c warmer than last June.

If we had an easterly popping up for the last few frames of the ECM in December would you expect people to be talking about the mild stuff to come before it. ECM once again throws in a lovely finish with a strong ridge of high pressure to the southwest of the UK. The mean will no doubt support a pressure rise in FI but i await positive developments closer to the reliable timeframe.

1984 often gets overlooked being after 1983 but there was a good spread of fine spells over all 3 months and every month was above average.

If the GFS 12z is anything to go by it shows that even with air sourced from north of the UK it doesnt have to translate into cool for the UK. Today is a fine example of that with the low 20s in Scotland. With high pressure over Scandinavia its drawing a lot of warm air westwards which is then shown to spill south over the UK for the start of next week. The cold spell at the end of the week is very much associated with a cold pool of air rather than a continuous stream of polar air. By Sunday warmer uppers are back over the UK and it turns warm in the south west.

1947 certainly the pick of those 3 for warmth and sunshine. The coolest summer month in 1947 in relation to the average was July but that was still 0.3c above the current 81-10 average of 16.7. The first 2 months of Summer 1979 were reasonable with a lot of high pressure around bringing decent warmth but no real hot spells. They it all fell apart in August. Summer 1963 was mostly dreadful apart from a warm start to June and a few nice spells during July.

High pressure set to dominate across southern half of the UK during July . Its worth a thumbs up even though its still a long way off, it sounds pretty good though.

High pressure trying its best to nose in to end the month but it will be a messy transition i feel. Encouraging signs at least for a more settled start to Summer. Infact the upcoming days look likely to contain some long dry periods (the south west favoured) but with temperatures falling back to below average.

GEFS mean shows low pressure slipping away southeast with a cool and dry weekend looking likely.

There is so much uncertainty for what the start of Summer may bring but its encouraging for the Met Office, after recent bad summers, to be seeing signs of a dry first half to June with some decent settled summery weather around. They say no heatwaves, but they wouldnt be bold enough to forecast a month of heatwaves would they. Whilst high pressure is around the UK theres always the chance of some very warm conditions developing.

Things are still uncertain with the models flipping alot between runs. Longer term theres an encouraging dry Met Office forecast for June

Promising from the UKMO tonight with low pressure moving down the east coast of England rather swiftly at the end of the week with high pressure tucking in behind. Good prospects from then on for a ridge to build from the SW 144h onwards. Before then Thursday looks horrendous for much of England, especially so for eastern coastal counties.

No bad indications for June then. The absence of any talk about rain is very encouraging

Lots of developments since i last posted in here. Good to see the ECM has backed off its cool low pressure domination that was a feature of some runs a couple of days ago. It turns out the GFS, which always maintained a settled spell through the coming week, has won out. So not a bad week to come for most areas, although it will remain frustratingly cool in eastern areas until winds swing back to a westerly direction. Lots of dry and pleasant weather to come in western areas this coming week with temperatures up on recent days at generally 15-18c throughout next week. More like the low teens for eastern coastal counties.

June 2012, joint with July 2007 as the worst summer months in living memory.

Nice try, but the charts for the stunning summers are there for all to see on the wetterzentrale archive so theres no escaping what summer can potentially be like in this country. I, for one, believe that another glorious summer isnt too far away. For instance Summers 1983, 1984, 1989 and 2006 all had northerly outbreaks late May and early June. I am still confident about this coming summer being drier than average, but less optimistic about the temperatures though. Think they may be just average.

Since mid April its been very pleasant indeed. Even during the current unsettled spell most of the rain has come at night and today has been very pleasant. I would gladly take a repeat of the last month during summer, just with 5/6c added on to reflect the warmer temps expected in July as opposed to April/May.