Milhouse

But at least it would be dry from Tuesday onwards which enhances the feeling of pleasantness. But a high to the west, low to the east setup is never going to give high temperatures.

On the ECM eventually low pressure to the east of the UK manages to pull down some warm air from Scandinavia into the mix. Thats happened a couple of times during May if i recall right which helped to produce a warm day on the 31st with temperatures up to 22c. By T+240 there is quite an impressive Azores high which isnt in a great position for long lasting warmth for the UK. However due to its strength and >10c upper temperatures even a westerly or northwesterly could produce the mid 20s. But the more northerly the wind gets the greater chance of cooler air filtering south.

Got to agree there. Its all those lovely warm looking colours that give the impression that it would be a very warm day. But, in light winds further west it would be feeling pleasant with high teens, low 20s.

That low close by to the east on the ECM isnt really concerning me, as its not like its been a feature of the long range models lately. Its just the usual variability of the ECM in FI. What is still encouraging is the strong and robust Azores high thats making advances towards the UK. Low pressure also makes a quick exit from the UK so by Monday many areas away from NE coasts should enjoy a lot of dry weather. But with cool uppers over the UK it wont be that warm.

ECM 12z mean looks supportive for a substantial pressure rise from the southwest by day 10. The difference between this and last summer is quite evident with a quick return to settled conditions for the southern half of the uk being indicated by the ECM after a very unsettled weekend. Still no sign of greenland high pressure forming, in complete contrast to this time last year.

A fairly encouraging ECM mean from the 0z with quite a decent pressure rise

Not looking a good weekend at all with a horrible looking low over the UK bringing cool and unsettled conditions. The positive in the long run seems to be that there isnt another low queueing up to take its place when it eventually departs. Indeed, the GFS 12z shows the low slipping off to the north to be replaced by drier conditions for next week.

Well i didnt see that coming

Rain can make summer events a misery at times but thankfully there seems to be more dry weather around this June compared to last. A far cry from last year with several event cancellations due to waterlogged ground. Today was a nice suprise here with mostly blue skies from Midday until late Afternoon and the only shower came early this morning.

Nothing at all, as the chart below ilustrates from a much more reliable timeframe, although still miles out in model terms.

Could be much worse this evening. No heatwave on the horizon, but the models have removed low pressure pushing up from the south later in the week. So generally a lot of fine and settled weather to come this week with temperatures edging up during the first half of the week and tending to drop away during the second.

Summerlike, no? Settled midweek from the ECM 12z. A lot different from last night. Low pressure coming up from the south on Thursday, but i did say a taste of Summer, not a spell.

So with all the big 3 and the lesser models placing low pressure on a northerly track i wonder if i can consign last nights awful ECM to the bin. The ECM does seem to have swung back in favour of a more settled start to next week. Low pressure may be close enough on Monday to deliver rain to Southern England but the general trend from Sunday through to Wednesday does appear to be a settled one with temperatures rising. Wednesday is looking a particularly warm day at the moment before low pressure pushes up from the south to deliver a wet and possibly thundery day on Thursday. But one more showery day to come tomorrow and then a taste of summer.

Not a bad UKMO at all, all things considered. The northwest would be prone to more unsettled weather but for the bulk of the country its looking settled and warm with a bit of a continental drift for southern England to raise temperatures there.

Once again the GFS 18z delivers a pleasant run for next week with plenty of dry weather under fairly high pressure. Temperatures would also come close to the mid 20s in selected spots. The contrasts between models looking 3 days ahead is more than I can ever recall. You've got the ECM which wants to send low pressure back north across the country next Monday. Then there's the GFS and Ukmo that push it off onto the continent.

ECM is a dreadful run. The 0z ensemble mean indicated much better though. Every now and again the ECM seems to throw in a run that sends low pressure crashing eastwards removing everything in its path, only to be followed by a more promising run with low pressure on a more northerly track.

June 1991, one of the coldest Junes ever lead to a very nice July and August.

At least the UKMO has removed its low stuck over the UK for the start of next week, to now showing a gradually improving picture during the first half of next week. That chart above looks reasonable but the big question is is the ridge of high pressure over the UK strong enough to keep low pressure on a northerly track over the UK thus prolonging the fine weather.

Across the 3 main models i see northing to suggest a lengthy unsettled spell, or a lengthy settled one. Just a continuation of the largely average June conditions. Some rain around interspersed with some good settled periods. Temperatures high teens or very low 20s. But considering we are meant to be in an unsettled spell right now it makes last June seem like a tropical monsoon.

The makings of a good spell of weather are much more evident than this time last year. We just need everything to fall into place.

FWIW NAVGEM 18z not far from the GFS in drawing in some continental heat and humidity early next week. Interesting times ahead. Damn those good 18z models for keeping me up

36c just over in Belguim

Uppers of 20c, 31c in the south and some torrential downpours for the southwest on Wednesday. Now that's summer.

Aye, the 18z is a good run with Sunday seeing a lot of tropical humid air being brought up from France but we will still have a fragmenting band of rain over the country. By Tuesday the impressive heat over Europe has made it over to southern England with 28c being shown.

Its very hard for the models to handle the second low at the weekend with the ridge of high pressure also building out in the Atlantic. At least there has been a backing away from a wet Sunday from all but the UKMO that was looking likely.