Milhouse

The UKMO is a case of spot the difference for Sunday and Monday with a massive high right over the UK. Most areas would be very warm with little in the way of sea breezes due to the highs position. The ECM mean for early next week also showed the high positioned over the UK so its only the GFS 12z at the moment that shifts it further north. Nevertheless Saturday is looking a cracking day with widespread mid 20s.

Paul Hudson on Look North mentioned temperatures up to 27c by the weekend in Yorkshire. Not often is it announced so much in advance given recent failings so the Met Ofice must be pretty confident about this. Looking at the models i can see why. They have been consistent in showing a strong area of high pressure developing and lasting Temperatures up to 23c for Thursday so not long now before the warmth arrives.

i was looking at some records for Spurn Point which is a very remote spit of land jutting out into the North Sea at the Humber Estuary. During the 1976 heatwave it still got to 20 or 21c with an onshore breeze, so the point is it could still feel warm on the coast and go 10 miles inland and the temperatures should be several degrees higher. The GFS 0z is just epic. The chance of at least mid 20s right out to the 18th. Its a shame it will be soon erased by the 6z.

But even on the ECM mean at day 10 the 10c isotherm remains over northern Scotland suggesting a continuation of the very warm conditions even if the centre of the high has slipped away.

Have you been abroad since 2006 or something. I for one can help but notice the last 6 summers have been a bit wet.

Given winds for your location will be coming from the east from Saturday onwards i wouldnt bank on there being much cloud at the weekend and on into next week. It looks the perfect setup for a weather map full of sun symbols. With an easterly tracking across the land ruling out any sea breezes it could lead to some particularly high temperatures as well.

After the previous summers where its been a case of low pressure arriving, putting down its anchor, and staying over the UK for days its now the turn of high pressure to stick around for a while. From Saturday to Monday it really isnt moving at all, instead its been inflated by more high pressure arriving from the SW.

Saturday through to Monday look very warm or hot on the ECM. The question at the moment looks to be while areas will see the peak of the warmth. With high pressure centred over the there will always be light sea breezes keeping the coasts cooler but i dont see there being any extensive low cloud and cool temperatures anywhere. From Tuesday onwards the high begins to drift back out into the Atlantic so low cloud may become more of a feature in the east but the high temperatures would continue elsewhere, with the chances of 30c being concentrated in the south coast e.g Bournemouth.

The ECM gets the settled spell going with a decent looking day on Thursday. It may start cloudy and damp but as pressure rises the day should end fine and warm for areas south of the Midlands. All going to plan for Friday as well with high pressure building and a decent looking day in store for most including Scotland and Northern Ireland. It will, however, be cooler in the north as the warm air is yet to arrive here. Becoming very warm in the south though.

GEFS mean has high pressure once again centred over Northern England next Monday.

Not quite. The warmth should get going on Friday and its impossible to say when it will last to. The GFS 12z slowly removes the warmth from the north throughout next week but the SE remains very warm all week. All models are pointing towards higher temperatures than what we saw on Sunday.

The fine spell lasts into Tuesday

A slightly stronger high over the UK on the GFS 12z than the 6z. Could ensure it sticks around for longer.

Predicted temperatures for Sunday

Impossible to tell that far away. Today doesnt feel very summery here either but the models have tended to upgrade high pressure for Wednesday and Thursday so before the main high arrives it should turn quite warm and humid again around the middle of the week.

UKMO as expected builds high pressure strongly over the weekend and ends with a breakdown nowhere to be seen.

Somewhere in Yorkshire e.g Leeming in the vale of York looking the hot spot on Sunday at present.

ECM as well Wouldnt be suprised to see the high 20s right up into Scotland given the position of the high

I didnt think i'd see a chart like my avatar anytime soon but the GEFS mean places a strong high centred right over northern England at T+168

2 things ive noticed from the ECM mean. Firstly it supports the rise in presure from the south and the warm upper temperatures in the SE on Thursday. Secondly at T+240 look at the extent of the warmth.

Even though the high is retreating westwards into the Atlantic it doesnt mean that cool weather would result. At T+240 warm air is being pumped so far north towards Iceland which is descending south towards the UK around the high pressure. There would be an increase in cloud however but temperatures would be still mid to high 20s.

Then you have the UKMO to pin your hopes on.

I think we could call it a heatwave if the ECM verified. To end the run its another very warm day and even though winds have moved round to a northerly direction all areas with the exception of northern Scotland are under >10c upper temperatures.

Not much changes into the new week but low cloud might proove problematic for North Sea coasts. Inland it continues hot and sunny where i dont see there being much cloud at all.

Temperatures would probably range from the low 20s in northern Scotland to as high as 30c in the SW. The bulk of England and Wales and favoured spots in Scotland could well see the high 20s. I would fancy a 30c along the south coast or somewhere like Hereford.