Milhouse

By T+168 warmer air is beginning to topple back in.

ECM is a bit poor tbh. To see upper temperatures below 10c drifting in can only mean cooler and cloudier weather. The UKMO and GFS are making less of this incursion of cooler air. The gfs and ECM at T+144 are quite different though.

100% cloud cover now after a sunny morning. Still feeling rather warm and humid at 21.2c

Dry sunny and increasingly warm. 21.6c

That was last nights 18z.

Here are the delightful charts the ECM was serving up exactly a year ago today.

I thought the high was moving in a rather concerning northerly direction but it decides to topple back over the UK to prolong the warmth into the week after next.

Astonishing . I've never seen a run like it. Tonights GEFS London ensembles. The mean doesnt drop below 10c until the 16th.

JMA is probably the best of the lot tonight. From Sunday to Thursday high pressure remains virtually unmoved.

Impossible to tell if that shows high pressure is retreating or a renewed Azores high moving back in.

Indeed, but just happen to be on 2 weeks of annual leave till the 15th. Quite convenient really.

I imagine it could once again see some very high temperatures. Oh the thought of those lovely vast beaches, clear blue skies and warm temperatures

High pressure lessens its grip over the UK, but it just declines in strength rather than being pushed away so the very warm and sunny conditions would persist.

In the immediate furture it doesnt look a high conducive to the low 30s due to the lack of any influence from off the continent. But what we lose in potential max temperatures we make up in the longevity and scale of the warm spell. All areas should experience some high temperatures at some point. Here its Thursday to Sunday when i expect the highest temperatures. Maybe 26c at the weekend before its back into the low 20s for the start of next week. But inland its mid 20s for the forseeable future. Sunshine amounts also deserve a mention. If this high remains stubborn over the UK then sunshine totals will rocket.

Latest GFS now has 24c in Yorkshire tomorrow so for some the warm spell will get going in less than 24hrs

The best settled Summer spell since 2006 is about to begin. What will be the highest temperature and where will it be. Its a bit drizzly here at the moment but very humid.

Thats better. I was getting a bit worried

GEFS 0z mean may remove high pressure from on top of the UK at the start of next week but we are still under the influence of high pressure to our west through to the following weekend.

GFS 18z settled and very warm throughout. Parts of the midlands would see over 10 days of 25c + if it were to occur.

But with warmer air coming back over the top of ths high. Anyway, one ECM op run doesnt equal a trend.

Anyway if it were to be 1035mb it would likely be over Northumberland which would not do

Identical from the ECM. Just need a small area of 1035mb to appear over Yorkshire.

This chart says it all really. Summer set to arrive for all parts.

Temperatures always fluctuate from run to run though. If the 18z were to show something more like the 12z mean then i imagine it would be showing higher temperatures.

What matters is the mean output, not the operational. And so far on Meteociel the 12z mean is looking almost identical to the 6z mean. Light onshore breeze for the coast south of the Newcastle but nothing much.