Milhouse

No arguments there as that is what it shows. But still 10 days away. High pressure still putting up a fight on the ECM Uppers of 20c not far away

Temperatures falling slightly on Saturday before rising again on Sunday as winds turn easterly.

Just what i like to see. Hopefully the others follow suit. I see the Azores high ridging back in once again so no breakdown there.

Only a max of 22c here but that will still do.

Pleasing to see more in the way of a plume type scenario developing from Sunday onwards with winds swinging round to the east and eventually the southeast drawing up some impressive heat and also leading to the greater chance of some thinderstorms. ECM until recently had more of a northeasterly but has now moved in the direction of the UKMO.

35.9c at Cheltenham

When i see charts like this from 8 days ago it shows how much the heat has been extended. In reality

GFS has shown more indication of a breakdown because it goes out further then the ECM. Run the ECM on 6 more days then i'm sure it would show a breakdown of sorts. Anyway any talk of a breakdown is pure speculation. ECM hinted at one a few days ago but has now backed away from that idea. Just shows you cant predict anything that far out.

Run the ECM on one more day then we might well be in record breaking territory.

Soon some serious heat is to push out of Spain into France. At the moment it looks like the UK wil be under the influence of an E/NE flow this weekend. If winds can tilt round to a southerly like the ECM is suggesting in FI then we could be looking at some very high temperatures.

Later on the high nudges east with the heat remaining and less of a northeasterly for eastern coasts. t+240 should be epic.

If it stays like this for the rest of the month, which the models indicate could happen, then it would put this month up there with the very best alongside August 95 or July 83.

UKMO supporting a hot easterly developing

This mornings GEFS 6z mean indicates a renewed building of high pressure from the south towards the end of the month. Upper temperatures still above average

24c max here and another lovely summers day

A breakdown of high pressure doesnt have to mean a removal of the heat as the GEFS mean shows for Saturday 27th. However, It would mean the increased chance of some thundery downpours which have been lacking so far this summer.

Sensational from the ECM tonight. Another 10 days of the heat would follow if it verified and temperatures would be on the rise too with a more continental influence, coniciding with the hottest part of the year would deliver the low 30s. So tonight we just cant be sure when the heat will end. the GFS 12z entends the heat 3 more days than the 6z showed and we have a ECM to rival any so far this summer in terms of heat. Yes a breakdown will of course eventually come but certain members seem fixated on this and refuse to believe or discuss anything else.

Rather toasty in the office today and lots of people saying it was very warm which i would agree with. But we have lives outside work for which this sort of weather is ideal for chilling out on a evening. Hull reached 28c which doesnt happen that often but i cant say it felt too warm outside. It was lovely to be out in it.

This is the GEFS 12Z ensemble mean chart at t+300 and the associated upper temperature mean. People can come to their own conclusions about this.

Decent UKMO with the best of the warmth in the west with low cloud off the north sea becoming an issue at the weekend.

In FI on the GFS it does go sharply downhill but the wet and cool stuff doesnt arrive until 288h.

This is the chart that brought 32C on 29th July 1983. It does seem a very high temperature for somewhere on the coast.

Noticeable improvements on the 12z with high pressure remaining strong across the UK for the start of next week as opposed to the 6z which had low pressure looking quite threatening to the north of the UK. High pressure remaining strong on the GFS 12z for the remainder of the week. Not saying its going to be right as we are talking an awfully long way away but it does call into question the breakdown some are predicting.

GFS 12z has increased warmth towards the end of the high res section than the 6z showed. Winds coming off the continent rather than from the northeast. I wonder if it could make a difference for developments later on.

I love Skegness. Nice to hear its getting some warmth just like we are just up the coast