Milhouse

Becoming dry for all and temperatures staying in the mid to high 20s although as recent days have shown there will be variations in where the best of the warmth will be. Sea breezes once again developing in coastal areas.

Looking increasingly likely that high pressure will build back over the UK.

So far so good on the ECM with tomorrow out to Tuesday looking very warm and sunny but just the isolated shower possible over Northern England over the weekend. High pressure toppling in on Wednesday

Latest Look North forecast showing just 18c for Skegness tomorrow so still not great there. But go 20 miles inland and it should be up to 24c and perhaps 29c in the Vale of York.

And no obvious support for the GFS op for cooler air slipping south at the end of next week.

Indeed, The GEFS mean to 168h has stronger high pressure further north centred just off SW England. 12z

The change in the outlook from now until next wednesday has already happened and that was the removal of the breakdown a couple of days ago. Its too much into the reliable timeframe now to see any removal of the warmth. Another 5 days of warmth and sunshine is nailed on IMO.

At least the next 5 days look dry and very warm for the bulk of England and Wales. Crucially we will lose the northeasterly so Yorkshire, East Midlands and East Anglia should be substantially warmer in the coming days although i suspect temperatures will continue to be supressed right on the coast, but that is not unusual.

Awful day here with a nagging chilly feeling. Looking forward to seeing the back of this northeasterly.

Saturday looks like 30c could be reached in a number of spots. Much warmer up here too.

Once again its a very warm and dry picture being painted by all models for the forseeable future. The GFS 6z has temperatures in the high 20s for 7 days for southern England starting tomorrow. This warmth will spread north as well with Yorkshire likely to see the mid 20s for the next 7 days. However Scotland wont fair so well with a reduction in temperatures over recent values. The biggest winner looks to be eastern England which has been plagued by cool and cloudy conditions this week.

There's a reasonable chance that come the end of July Summer so far will be warmer, drier and sunnier than average. Its almost certain to be drier and sunnier. It's just whether July can cancel out the negative temperature anomaly of June

Going by tonights 12z models this thread could keep going for quite some time. Hopefully come Friday i will be reporting some temperatures worthy of the title, especially given its shockingly cool at the moment at only 12.4c

The ECM op has a look of late June/early July 2010 about it. Which, if you dont think the current spell is, was the best summer spell since 2006. So plenty of fine and very warm conditions to come going by tonights models with a more traditional NW/SE split emerging.

But the threat of low cloud off the North Sea doesnt look to be a feature with winds coming from a warmer W/SW direction. Todays temperatures over Yorkshire and the East Midlands were hardly indicative of the present upper 850 temperatures due to the cloud spilling from the north and a cool wind off the sea. A wind from the Atlantic will not be as cool. This will have the effect of switching the warmest temperatures to the south and east of the UK, with the west seeing lower values but still higher than the mid teens that the east coast saw today.

The ECM 12z mean is quite a turnaround from this mornings one. The ECM 12z op, although a fine run, actually brings low pressure closer to the UK in FI than the mean has. It also means that both the GEFS and ECM means now indicate a reasonable pressure rise from the middle of next week.

96-144h on the UKMO 12z shows generally a north/south split with low pressure quite close to the north of Scotland meaning cooler westerlies and unsettled at times for the northern half of the UK. For the southern half its a continuation of the weekends fine spell with a lot of dry weather and temperatures likely to peak around 27c in the south. High pressure firmly in charge in FI

Cooler air temporarily makes its way into Scotland and northern England on Tuesday before high pressure builds again.

On into the new week cooler air will gradually slip southwards. Tuesday on the GFS is shown to have maxima in the mid teens in Scotland but still well into the low to mid 20s for the Midlands south.

Then on Saturday the attention switches to southern England with 32c on the GFS 12z. Temperatures fall slightly on Sunday but for the second weekend in a row it looks perfect Summer weather for many.

Northern England expected to be 5-7c warmer in on Friday compared to tomorrow.

The fear of cooler air slipping south on Saturday into Sunday looks to have been removed now. This was indicated by the GFS more so than the UKMO and ECM but now all 3 are pointing towards a fine and warm Sunday as well as Saturday.

A fine and promising 6z GEFS mean thats for sure. This chart for next Tuesday is the coolest, most unsettled of the next 10 days (still mid 20s in the south) before high pressure builds from the Azores. So its insignificant if the 6z op was an outlier because of what the mean is still supporting a decent rebuild of high pressure.

I would imagine it would be those in the east and southeast who would say that summer 2010 saw better spells of fine and warm weather whereas those in the north and west would say that this will be the best settled spell for 7 years. Its worth noting that its not done yet. The warmth keeps on going in the south till this time next week so by that time all locations may have seen their best summer spell for 7 years. Over here i would still rank late June/early July higher up until now but looking at the charts for that period they do look very mediocre and nothing like the stunning high pressure charts of recent days.

We are now entering the warmest part of the year so we dont need exceptional charts to deliver very warm conditions. The GFS 0z and 6z both showed a very warm, locally hot weekend in the south and the warmth persisting into next week with any rain bands mostly fizzling out and not amounting to much at all. All areas will see a breakdown of high pressure but as far as the settled and warm conditions are concerned its the northern half of the UK which will see these being removed from Sunday onwards. The southern half will continue fine and very warm.