Milhouse

Just keeps getting better and better

ECM actually brings in the fine conditions on Thursday. With upper temperatures in the SE similar to those of today it could be another very warm day depending on sunshine amounts. Friday looks fine nationwide and increasingly warm.

Before then, as i've said, Thursday looks an improving day with the main rain band moving off into the North Sea with showers following on behind. With a humid SW wind on Wednesday it probably would feel quite pleasant and with us being between rain bands it will be a day of scattered showers and good dry spells inbetween. Working backwards here, Tuesday doesnt look good at all but tomorrow should be mostly dry with only a scattering of showers for the northern half of the UK. Temperatures up to 21c in the south. Not a disasterous week then, before the summer looks set to arrive in style on Friday.

Temperatures up a notch for Monday. The 12z is shaping up a splendid run.

UKMO in agreement. A light southerly. 30c maybe?

On into the weekend the high builds further and it begins to hot up. 28c by Sunday. Perhaps more cloud across the far NW but almost everywhere would be basking in the warmth.

Thursday is shown to be a rather unsettled day but most of the rain will be across the northern half of the UK at first before this clears off into the North Sea to leave an afternoon of sunshine and showers. Temperatures reasonable on Thursday with high teens perhaps low 20s in the SE. Then almost out of the blue there is a rapid rise in pressure with high pressure right over the UK and 25c in th south.

OK so june is drawing to a close and with 1 more day to go its looking like a fairly average month with some summery days sandwiched between some wet but not exceptionally wet spells. But what are peoples own experiences and what mark would they give it out of 10. I would give it 4.5. Too many cool days at the start of the month here but some lovely sunny days to compensate. From then on there has been quite a bit of rain but this was from a couple of very wet days as opposed to a wet period. There have also been some dry days mixed in as well which felt warm but theres been no proper summery temperatures to speak of. However not a single Saturday cricket match has been affected by rain all month so thats a big plus in my opinion.

Cross model agreement for a settled end to the coming week. Next weekend could be very warm and summery but we will have to wait and see. Before that we have a pleasant few days to come but different in terms of temperature with tomorrow likely to see widespread 23c+, but Monday will see most parts stuck in the mid to high teens with an annoying finger of 0c upper temperatures stretching down from the north towards the UK. Dry to start on Tuesday before low pressure moves in to herald an unsettled spell midweek before high pressure is shown to rapidly move north later on. Thats how it looks at the moment.

Early days but i see no reason why not. We would have to see high pressure remain stuck over the UK for a considerable length of time though.

Becoming very warm, even hot in the south.

A dry and bright start but cloud tended to increase throughout the day. Becoming rather dull around midday but some sunny spells developing. Max 17.4c

Increasingly settled from the ECM with Saturday and Sunday seeing more in the way of dry weather than we will see in the remaining days of this week. Monday looking dry and fine too before low pressure nears the NW of Scotland on Tuesday but most parts having another dry and warm day. After that it could get interesting.

It seems its been 2 steps forwards 1 step back from the models in recent days. We were looking at low pressure sinking south into the north sea at the weekend. bringing a return to cool conditions. Then we had a big turnaround to a big Azores high with warm temperatures nationwide. Now we've gone backwards with less warmth and more cloud around but still better than what was being shown 5/6 days ago.

I'm stuck between playing it safe or going for a hot month as the models suggest. I'm going to say 16.8c.

Just a bit to go before the cool uppers depart for what could be a very long time. Good riddance i say. The past few days have had a chill in the air here not summerlike at all.

Its a sublime GFS in FI with very warm or hot easterlies swamping the whole country. Furthermore, there is good support for a pressure rise from the south to start July with some proper summery charts showing up and both GEFS and ECM means are looking very encouraging. In the meantime its a warm but rather cloudy picture with the weekend possibly having more sunshine which should push temperatures into the low to mid 20s.

The pressure anomaly chart from the ECM 0z mean at T+240

Its a pity that any settled conditions this June have often been associated with a cool northerly/easterly airstream which has brought in a lot of stubborn cloud and cool temperatures for eastern areas. Whereas western and northern parts have seen warmer and sunnier weather. I guess that shows how this June has been different to the general pattern of summers recently where the best warmth was to be found in the SE with the NW cooler and wetter. Here we've seen quite a bit of rain this month so i am relishing a dry 7-10 day period and winds coming from a warmer direction for us on the east coast.

Ridging of the Azores high with westerlies over the UK isnt ideal as it often promotes a lot of cloud and temperatures further north can often be on the cool side as cooler air tucks in from the north from time to time. Southwesterlies or southerlies are better as they remove any possibility for cooler air to get in from the north. But i am looking forward to the increased humidity and warm evenings even if sunshine amounts wont be that great.

That is true. This weeks settled spell was meant to be a bit warmer but several ECM runs had it coming to an end this weekend. The current ECM 12z has high pressure strong across the south then building across all parts to end the run.

Next Wednesday looking very warm in the ECM with upper temperatures touching 14c in the south.

On one hand you could say that the models have downgraded the extent of high pressure at the weekend but you could also say that there is not a low pressure waiting in the Atlantic to swiftly turn things unsettled again. So esentially a dry picture for the forseeable future with quite a bit of cloud around at times but also some sunnier days which should make it feel warm.

Certanly dont need any rain here.

ECM mean has pressure relatively high to the south of the UK out to day 10. Very warm conditions likely to persist for a while