Milhouse

What starts off as a nationwide settled spell over the weekend gradually gets eroded from the north with the settled and warm conditions becoming confined to the SE by the middle of the following week. But with high pressure making its way into Europe it always opens up the posibility for repeated ridges aided by low pressure to the west. T+240 highlights this nicely. This would be a very dry run for most with the exception of a brief unsettled spell at T+216.

Settled and warm so far from the ECM with tempratures rising towards the weekend. Perhaps becoming very warm for some. Theres likely to be rather more cloud and a bit of rain towards the end of the week with the passage of a fairly weak front.

Temperatures edging up over the coming days up to round about average by Wednesday.

UKMO, although settled is a bit mediocre compared to the ECM and, to a lesser extent, the GFS. Too much cool air being brought into the mix for my liking. The GFS 12z is a better run with warmer upper temperatures spreading across much of the UK during the weekend.

Dare i say we could even call the ECM 'hot' from 168h onwards. With >10c uppers over the UK the high 20s would be possible.

Cracking run from the GFS with a settled weekend and turning very warm for the start of the following week.

Promising signs emerging for next weekend with high pressure attempting to push eastwards.

At the end of the week more cloud is likely with some light rain possible but amounts should be small and remaining warm for central and southern areas.

Low pressure intensifying to the east of the UK which will keep a cooler flow for the eastern half of the country. Elsewhere its looking a dry day and again pleasantly warm. The Wimbledon organisers will be very pleased.

At least its a dry outlook, which is all the more welcome having seen the soggy scenes at Edgbaston. Pleasant temperatures to come on Tuesday. Not much to cheer about on the continent i see with cool temperatures and a lot of rain in the coming week.

Its so refreshing to see the models resembling summers pre 2007. By that i mean low pressure over Greenland and the Azores high much closer to the UK throwing up decent ridges from time to time. Have we got over the freak wet summers of 2007-2012 where high pressure was a rarity. I do hope so.

Compared to a few days ago it looks like the settled spell has been extended with the threat of low pressure moving down from the north next weekend being removed. Towards the weekend unsettled conditions will spread into Scotland and NI but for the majority of the UK it should remain fine and warm for a while yet. However as others have alluded to, it looks quite a messy arrival of high pressure this week with some niggling fronts underneath the high.

The 6z has the ridge persisting into Saturday as well so the weekend would start fine and warm, even very warm for some.

GFS 6z has high pressure building further north during next week enabling all areas to see some fine and increasingly warm weather out to the end of the week. As others have said, the high could be better placed for some heat and sunshine but after last years diabolical summer its looking a very acceptable outlook with temperatures as high as 24c by the end of the week. Low pressure in a more northeasterly track on the 6z so the high isnt getting flattened either.

Looking very nice next week and its such a welcome sight to see strong ridging of the Azores High at this time of year. On a positive note it seems that the ECM and GFS have put a more westerly tilt to the wind direction for early on next week so it may encourage higher temperatures to arrive sooner. From midweek onwards the proper warmth arrives and some parts could hit 25c. But on a negative note, low pressure looks like it will bring unsettled conditions into Scotland later on in the week which may spread further south to all parts during next weekend like the ECM op suggests. On the other hand, the ECM mean keeps high pressure strong to the SW of the UK. It seems quite likely now that June 2013 will go out on a fairly good note with a good spell of dry and settled weather, the best of this to be found across the south and east.

The Azores high is quite well placed just to the SW of the UK to maintain the ridge into central Europe and the decent weather for the UK.

Well it makes more progress eastwards than was shown on the 6z and it has flattened the high. But pressure is still high enough for a good deal of fine and dry weather with temperatures just the same as the 6z.

Encouraging GFS so far with temperatures rising to average or a touch above by Wednesday. 2 rather menacing looking lows either side of the UK but neither look like troubling us during next week.

Settled but cool start to the week with some cool upper temperatures brought down by the weekends low

Plenty of positive signs across all models this morning. Low pressure drags its heels a bit after departing the UK on the ECM but it moves north allowing the Azores High to ridge under it. Very nice from the GFS 6z too and turning very warm by the end of the week.

The problem with posting charts is that they always change in the days after posting them. The chart i posted showed a more long lasting settled spell.

Ukmo 12z is full of promise with the jet stream tracking well to the north of the UK where it should at this time of year. The chart at T+144 wouldnt be especialy warm bt the trend is to push high pressure east and north so temperatures on the up throughout next week which could be totally dry for many parts.

The south coast looks the place to be next week in the absence of any onshore wind and closer to the warmer upper temperatures.

Yes, its a certainty that for much of the UK the weekend will be an unwelcome reminder of what we had to endure throughout much of last June. Thankfully it looks like a temporary unsettled spell (just 2 days for some parts) before the low pulls away to leave Monday a drier day but with a scattering of lighter showers. The ECM mean paints a very encouraging picture from Tuesday onwards with high pressure in charge and upper temperatures gradually recovering.

And from 144h on Meteociel high pressure continues to build strongly before cooler but still dry conditions edge down from the north. So potentially a warm and settled period may be just a week away but thats a long time in weather terms unfortunately.