Milhouse

I recall that day quite well. I was playing Cricket over the river in Immingham and there was a torrential downpour mid way through the afternon after quite a warm and sunny morning. After the downpour we were back out and actually managed a result despite the pitch resembling a swamp.

ECM mean suggests that an easterly flow it likely to develop throughout next week with upper temperatures on the rise. The op looks to have been on the cool side compared to the mean as well.

Nothing set in stone yet, but the big development in recent days has been to remove low pressure in the north sea that was threatening to make a return for the weekend hindering the building of high pressure. All 3 main models tonight have shifted high pressure further east over the UK.

On the whole its a good ECM with high teens/low 20s favoured. The odd location may scrape 24c but thats as warm as i see it getting going by the ECM. The GFS and UKMO (if it continued further) would give us slightly higher temperatures.

Of Course. Temperatures of 17-21c would feel very summerlike in the very light winds and sunshine. Baring an unexpected turn of events the ECM should continue to build high pressure and increase the warmth.

ECM an absolute peach.....so far. With cool oppers it wouldnt be that warm though with high teens, perhaps 21c in the south.

No great suprises on the GEFS 12z ensembles. Well you could say a high pressure start to Summer is a suprise given recent poor summers. Increasingly looking like Summer will arrive right on time with high pressure ridging in on the 1st of June.

Repeated ridging of the Azores high throughout the GFS 12z with low pressure never managing to make any inroads towards the UK thanks to the blocking high over Scandinavia. Temperatures would be in the low to mid 20s throughout.

Thats a nice high on the UKMO which should have the strength to last quite a while. The direction its going may indicate something potentially very warm is not that far away.

Doesnt have to be that way though. Numerous Summers in the not too distant past have had more prolonged settled periods. Nothing to say one wont occur this year.

14.9c

The first 3rd of June is looking good at this stage. High pressure still on track to arrive by the end of the week and low pressue may not make such a return as was first feared judging by the 00z this morning.

The 12z ensembles looking much better and mirroring the GFS 12z op in bringing high pressure into play for the weekend much more than the 00z showed. Not much changes into FI with high pressure indicated to be high over the UK for the first 3rd of June.

That troublesome low looks like it may spoil things at the weekend, but on the plus side Thursday and Friday look good for the majority of the UK with just a few showers around. GFS 6z shows a max of 22c in the south on Friday which is not to be sniffed at. Then it gets complicated with low pressure, having affected the UK at the start of the week, coming back again to affect the eastern half of the UK for the weekend. How close it gets to the UK is still undecided but the eastern half of the UK always fairs worse in this situation. The best of the dry and sunny weather across southwestern England. The 6z so far is making much less of the weekends low pressure so things are no set in stone just yet. By Sunday its a little closer but notice all the warm air just to the east of the UK. By Monday the low has all but vanished and high pressure takes over.

Lots of variation there with the positioning of the high so not all areas will see warmth but the general trend is promising for a good start to summer. Also note low pressure firmly over Greenland at t240 on the ECM.

I had a lovely week in Wales at the start of August 2005. It was warm and sunny every day except for the last day when we went home. Looking at the charts it appears it was cooler and showery here on the east coast at the time so it was the perfect week to head to Wales with all the nice weather over there.

This is the closest the trough gets to the UK on the GEFS mean before pressure rises once again into FI.

At least they are generous to send some of it our way for the second half of the week. Might be enough to give 20c on Thursday and Friday.

2005 did have a very warm Autumn so the summerlike warmth petered out gradually instead of coming to an abrupt halt at the start of September. 2005 was actually a very good summer for southwestern England, which has endured the very worst of recent Summers. Temperature, sunshine and rainfall were all the right side of average.

2005 is widely acknowleged as a good summer but it was characterised by some very good spells but also some very cool ones too. As i quickly get irritated by long spells of coolness during Summer, im not sure if i would want a repeat of that. 2004 was average but wet at times, so not sure i would want a repeat of that either. I say bring on another 76 or 95. In my time of model watching i've never experienced a proper heatwave so it would be great to see one materialise.

Its been anomalously cool for too long. Bring on a significantly warmer than average month (or 3) for once and the perfect time for it to occur is in Summer.

UKMO in agreement too for next weekend with a decent ridge of high pressure building north. Ideally we need low pressure to slip away east across Europe to allow the high to descend over the UK cutting off the coolish upper temperatures.

Its a nice outlook as we enter Summer. But i cant wait till we see the dark oranges and reds on the charts indicative of the first proper heat of the summer.

Dry nationwide by Sunday with average temperatures.

Thursday looking good on the GFS 12z with 20c quite widespread. I guess this will be dependant on lengthy spells of sunshine. If it remains cloudy then i see the mid to high teens more likely. Friday looking warm for most but cooler air slipping into western Scotland as the Azores high approaches.