Milhouse

The ECM mean in FI suggesting high pressure will be building from the south as next weeks low responsible for the potential plume slips away northwards. Average temperature likely.

But the heat is building for a couple of days prior to the big arrival of the 20c uppers.

Add NAVGEM and JMA into the mix and we have all models predicting some sort of plume.

The ECM is really the holy grail of plumes and produces uppers 5c more than the one that brought 33c late in June 2011. That time we had 15c uppers as far north as the Humber. The ECM is showing 20c uppers as far north as the Humber.

All 3 main models have some sort of plume for the middle of next week but vary in how far they push the heat northwards. The ECM at t+ 120 is as much as NW/SE split as you are ever likely to see.

I recall the 'warm' spell at the start of June when eastern England was seeing 13-15c in sunny skies and an easterly wind. That seems awfully cold now in this incredible warm spell.

GFS still sends a bit of that continental warmth our way next week with the SE seeing 28c. But as the temperature and precipitation charts show it could be much cooler and wetter further northwest. UKMO is rather more promising for heat to push further north.

ECM mean supports a pressure rise from the south in FI. Upper temperatures at this stage look fairly average so I suspect temperatures would be around the seasonal norm 21-24c. This is supported by the GEFS mean at the same range roughly t+240. Before then I would say a very warm 2 days is still on for next week but the settled/ very warm zone has been pushed more SE.

Its nice that the winds have switched round to a southwesterly as it prevents a rapid cool down that occurs with an onshore wind. Its lovely and warm out there with not even a hint of a chill in the air. Perfect summers evening as far as i'm concerned.

A plume of sorts developing on the ECM for the middle of next week.

GFS 12z goes in a more unsettled direction for next week but the GEM has an impressive hot spell.

The latest GFS doesnt make much of next weeks plume unfortunately but what it does do is produce another warm week with a mixture of dry, sunny periods and showers or some longer spells of rain. So in essence, its another mixed week to come with no sign of anything unseasonably cool. Temperatures average or above with more mild nights.

Blue skies from dawn up until around 7pm when clouds start to build and i can hear distant rumbles of thunder. It would be dry up until sunset and the heavens would open around 10pm as a thunderstorm passed over. Temperatures would peak around 28c mid Afternoon falling to 22c during the evening and 16c overnight.

On Temperature, Sunshine and Rainfall this month is performing very well. Definately the best summer month since July 2006 and could even end up warmer than the memorable August 2003.

Temperatures once again into the high 20s, but this looks one of those SE is best events. The warmth would diminish furtther north but still mid 20s likely as far north as Newcastle

Run the ECM along and what is noticeable is that low pressure isnt going anwhere in the Atlantic other than spiralling round and round. Its close enough to send some quite active fronts across the UK but it also is having the effect of dragging up high pressure reinforcing whats already there across Europe. Obviously its dragging up air from the south so it will stay warm too.

Tuesday sees high pressure building into central Europe leading to a rise in temperatures for the south and east of the UK, with the north and west staying cooler and more unsettled closest to low pressure. Compared to this mornings run its an upgrade of warmth and high pressure for next week.

Sunday looking very unsettled on the ECM as low pressure pushes north across the UK, followed by a much drier day on Monday with signs of high pressure building from the south indicating a short lived very warm/hot spell.

Quite good support for a ridge of high pressure early next week, which may or may not develop into something hot as next week progresses. Actually looks better on Wetterzentrale, even though they are showing the same thing

Dont really think anyone takes developments after 300h seriously. And to be honest theres a lot of summery conditions to come in the next 7 days so i wont be bothered about warmth showing in FI when its already here. In the medium term, a mini plume at the start of next week is gathering support.

The ECM mean shows a mixed picture over the next 10 days with all areas likely to see some showers or longer spells of rain at some point. But with low pressure never in total control we should also see some decent dry spells. Later on there is a still indications of a north south split with the south east benefitting from a semi ridge of high pressure at the start of next week similar to what the GFS is showing. Winds remaining S/SW throughout so it will remain on the warm side of average with another peak of warmth possible at the weekend.

ECM keeps the UK under a warm SW air flow. In the hottest part of the year even this unspectacular looking chart would see 21-24c i imagine with upper temperatures slightly above average.

Very warm air still very close to the SE at the weekend.

According to Tomasz Shaffernaker we may come close to beating the all time record minimum tonight. A low of 23c shown for London

At the moment the GFS and ECM agree on a removal of the warmth towards the end of next weekend with a more typical north/south split following on from that. But in the meantime plenty of summery warmth and storms to enjoy with any arrival of cool/wet weather still a long way off.