Milhouse

After 1 cooler day on Sunday the warm uppers are lurking ready to push back in. High pressure asserting its dominance

This is the GEFS 12z mean chart for next weekend. Just looks like a normal reload of high pressure with a temporary cooler period.

The GFS 6z has the cooler northwesterly for next weekend bypassing the UK with warmer air remaining over us as high pressure topples in off the Atlantic. Temperatures do fall back to average values but soon rise again as a southerly develops. This is the GEFS mean take on things on Sunday which is the day when cooler air makes its way furthest south before it warms up. Upper temperatures at their coolest are still average for this time of year. The ECM mean has a much more pronounced northwesterly though so it will be interesting to see which one ends up being right.

Really not too fussed about heat now. I just want dry useable and pleasant conditions to last as long as possible. Fortunately the upcoming week looks just right for me. Pleasant temperatures and bags of dry weather on offer. I have really enjoyed this August so far. Its not too far behind July actually, because July saw some days of cool easterly dross whereas even when its been cloudy recently its still been warm. Even yesterday was warm and humid and not cool at all.

Well, its looking dry and settled today and much of the upcoming week. Not bad to get 2/3 decent days in a bank holiday weekend. Friday looks like it may mark the beginning of a cooler spell of northwesterlies but the mean outputs this morning show it as a temporary blip before warmth comes back in off the Atlantic.

If August finishes on 16.8c then that will mean a Summer CET of 16.23c. Since 1989 there have been 5 summers warmer than that. 1989, 1995, 1997, 2003 and 2006. 2004 would be the same and there would be 18 cooler summers including 1990, 1994, 1996, 1999 and 2005.

Plenty of dry, pleasant and perhaps sunny weather persisting until the end of the month, according to the ECM.

ECM 12z not so keen for low pressure to dive southwards next week. It has moved more inline with the UKMO and GFS. Next week is looking progressively dry now according to the big 3. The op runs do shift around quite a bit but the 12z looks more inline with this mornings 0z mean.

Me being one of them. I may be found venting my displeasure from time to time after a dull and raw day in mid January.

Well we still have the warmth but the heat may have to wait till next year. There is still the potential for warmth to persist for another month but i do get what you mean about the general decay that is witnessed at this time of year. The foul smell of manure spreading round here is a sure sign that Autumn is coming and is so different to the fresh fragrant aroma of late Spring. Still, it doesnt stop me liking days such as this though as it felt very warm today with a max of 24.3c. But like you i will slip away from the model discussion shortly as the interest in Atlantic storms and frosty nights increases.

It's hardly the failed settled spells of the last 6 summers where we were teased by high pressure in FI only for low pressure to vere more south as we got closer to it. If you cast your mind back a bit further before the warm charts appeared the ECM was showing a rather cool and unsettled picture. Then we were teased by some good charts for a couple of days and now it's been watered down somewhat. It's hardly early last December when biting cold easterlies became mild westerlies. I heard yesterday that eastern areas could see 29c on Friday which is the sort of max temp the GFS has been showing all along. Longer term, there looks support for the high to reassertion itself to the west of the uk as per this mornings UKMO and GFS

The answer is a resounding yes it does

Indeed, the GEFS mean looks promising for a continuation of high pressure roughly centred to the south west of the UK until the end of August. ECM 12z out to Tuesday shows a progressively more settled bank holiday weekend with Tuesday seeing winds veering more northwesterly. High pressure not too far away though which may or may not force its way in as the run progresses.

16c max Over here in East Yorkshire it was 23.8c and is still 21.6c out there.

The UKMO shows the entire BH weekend fine and warm so thats probably what Bubsy was looking at. The GFS 12z has a wet day on Saturday followed by drier conditions pushing down from the north on Sunday and dry for all on Monday. Mixed signals from the models but starting off unsettled, getting drier is the general picture at the moment.

Worse than August 2007 in that respect but have we seen anything like this. this this or perhaps this Not sure you looked back so fondly on a month 1c below average at the time.

By T+216 cooler air is slipping south over the UK as high pressure builds northwards to the west of the UK. Remaining mostly fine and settled.

A rather pleasing chart at T+168. Low pressure on a more northerly track than this mornings 0z allowing the Azores high to influence the UK settling things down. By T+192 the high has not suprisingly being flattened somewhat but it does mean some warmer upper temperatures will make their way over the southern half of the UK warming things up again.

I see high pressure incoming judging by that chart. Even over the weekend its looking half decent with some bright and breezy conditions with nothing notably wet. Although i imagine northern Scotland wont fair too well given Sundays chart.

It would be criminal if this month finished below average given its been mostly nice and pleasant. Very few cool days, but not that many very warm ones either.

We have 3 cricket matches remaining in the local league. If they can pass off without any significant rain then it will make it a whole season where we havent once had to go off for rain. Pretty remarkable. This summer is close to challenging 2006 and 2003 as the best summer in living memory. Just need the final 10 days of August to be predominantly warm, dry and sunny.

A bright and breezy sort of day with plentiful sunshine although during the late afternoon it turned cloudier. A max of 21.4c which is about average.

Apart from the unsettled conditions affecting the northwest on Tuesday and Wednesday we are looking at another fine week of summery conditions. This week doesnt really compare to July but if it had sat during the summers of 2007 or 2012 we might have been calling it the best week of the summer. I feel a bit of perspective is needed with regards to the breakdown. Its a very summery breakdown (if you can call it that) because temperatures look set to remain on the warm side and there will be lots of humidity around, so essentially its a summery outlook, becoming quite tropical if we get some very warm air pulled up at the end of the week and into the weekend. As for becoming cool and unsettled to end the month. I am not seeing it, and nor is the ECM at day 10.

All looking good tonight after my brief scan of the models. It's been a lovely summer so far and were in for another spell of high pressure to top it all off.

I think this summer has been made all the more better by the relative absence of them. At least here there are only a fraction of the amount in recent summers.