Milhouse

I will never be convinced that there are any advantages to the darker evenings and i cant see myself ever getting pleasure from seeing the sun set whilst i'm still at work, and i will always breathe a sigh of relief in that day in mid December when the look north forecast shows sunset at 15:39 instead of 15:38. I sometimes wish i could see the upsides to winter so it could be an easier season to cope with but i'm struggling. The short daytime hours i find restrictive in the way they confine you to the indoors, thus removing the choice that you get on a midsummers evening. I actually do find the early sunsets appropriate for my general dislike of the winter season though. I would hate for there to be increased light in the evening in December only for it to be wasted on dull raw mucky days where venturing outside is more a chore than a pleasure.

The ECM so far has a cold front sweeping away the warmth on Sunday followed by a cool, breezy and showery day on Monday. The Azores high looks poised to move in, if it doesnt get flattened as per this mornings 0z.

Rain amounts do indeed look small but as always under a n/s split Scotland will be more prone to rain from passing fronts. Further south the GEFS mean indicates very little rain at all next week. The warmth and increased humidity will be back next wednesday according to the GFS 12z.

The GEFS 12z mean is a slight improvement over the 6z with a stronger area of high pressure building across southern England throughout next week. So after a cool start to the week with temperatures in the high teens to low 20s it looks like it should warm up. Thursday sees 10c upper temperatures back into southern England

Just need the ECM to leap onboard the idea of a pressure rise throughout next week. The GFS and UKMO like the idea (the GFS very much so) but the ECM this morning was ghastly in the latter stages. But for a month now the final 3 frames always seem to have been showing something very cool and wet. The GEFS mean highlighs the possibility for high pressure to transfer east for a time drawing up some very warm air so the GFS 12z isnt without support.

Theres nothing like this showing though. And this was in the best summer of recent times.

Its not looking as interesting as last August thats for sure. But in comparison to the low pressure dominated August of 2011 and the relentless northwesterly August of 2010 its looking quite good.

Very good summery there Frosty. Temperature wise, the outlook is about as average as it gets with no sign of any heat or very cool weather over the next 10 days. temperatures always in the range 18-22c north to south. As is often the case with weather fronts moving down from the NW, It should be fairly dry in the SE with the rain tending to fizzle out.

The rest of the month could be very average and i still would be very pleased with this summer. Im satisfied to have experienced 30c this year and a month with a CET of over 18c. There is no sign of low pressure dominating the charts so there will always be some good useable summer weather to be had. Perfect for the summer holidays.

The July heatwave has boosted the economy apparently so the hot weather went much further than just satisfying our weather desires.

The GEFS mean suggesting an arrival of something cooler from the northwest is likely early next week before high pressure from the azores brings a warmer flow in from the west.

Thats what i do like about August, particularly early on in the month. Look at todays chart and you wouldnt expect the south east to be mostly dry with Norwich seeing 26c. Warmth is so easy to achieve and it very rarely feels chilly in the evening here due to the higher SSTs than in June.

I agree there is something atmospheric about a wintry sunset after a cold day with shallow mist hanging over the fields. But all too soon we are plunged into darkness by 4pm and you are stuck indoors until 10pm. However last winter i did discover a liking of going running in the evening along a route that was sufficiently lit by streetlights. But i didnt like doing it in anything under 6c as it was too cold.

The 12z GEFS ensemble mean indicates reasonable support for a very warm and dry spell developing in time for next weekend

This is looking a less rapid decent than what we saw in July 2009 when the month started off very warm and ended up going down to below average. Instead of wet and cool (as in July 2009) there are still some warm/very warm conditions on the horizon which should make the decline more gradual this time.

The GEFS mean is moving away from its hideously cool and wet outlook in FI that its been showing for quite some time.

UKMO moving towards a settled start to the weekend as well, more especially for southern areas. Sunday would be showing something more unsettled though.

GFS 12z showing a decent rise in pressure from the south to end the week and persist into the weekend. Temperatures wont exactly be increasing that much due to the already warm temperatures of the coming week. However it would mean a dry weekend would be on the cards for much of the southern half of the UK with northern Britain seeing more unsettled conditions. The coming week isnt looking bad either once tomorrows rain clears away. Tuesday sees a weak area of high pressure over the UK but the odd shower cant be ruled out. Towards the end of the week the Azores High ridges across southern areas to bring increasing amounts of dry and warmish conditions with temperatures peaking at around 24c. Could be as high as 26/27 next weekend though.

Next weekend starts with high pressure still strong over southern England with most of the southern half of the UK dry with average temperatures. Furthern north we will have to watch that low pressure closely. The 6z looks to be sending cooler air southwards at T+186.

If the GFS 6z is correct then its a continuation of the warm/very warm weather with Monday the only day to provide a cool and wet blip. Tuesday will see a scattering of showers but in any dry sunny spells it should feel very pleasant with temperatures slightly above average peaking at 24c. From Wednesday until Friday, showers will still feature but these should be well scattered and temperatures still doing well, into the mid 20s in the south. Summer continues.

Perfectly acceptable day today with plenty of warm sunshine and a keen breeze blowing. Up to 19.6c so i can see a max around 23c.

ECM this morning has moved further in the settled direction with warmer and drier conditions developing as next week progresses. Even the plunge of cooler air from the NW in FI is being toned down.

Slightly cooler than this time yesterday but still pleasantly warm at 20.9c with a warm breeze.

A mixed ECM 12z it has to be said with a fairly dry and warm weekend with temperatures a little above average, althouth there will be a scattering of showers on Saturday. On into next week it looks like it will start off cool and wet on Monday but there looks to be a drying and warming trend throughout the week with next Friday once again seeing temperatures into the mid 20s. Hopefully the trend to a warmer end to the week will be reflected in the ECM mean when it comes out. Next weekend it turns cooler from the northwest but FI has shown a cooler spell many times since late June and it has never come off.

August 2003 had the same CET to July just gone but had a more notable and warmer 10 day period at the start. That shows that the remainder of the month would have been good but hardly anything special. The last 3 days of August 2003 saw some cool northerlies which much have taken the shine off the month at the time.