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Ben_Cambs

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  1. Ben_Cambs
    Going off GFS 0.5 and NAE, dew points should start dropping off within the next couple of hours.
  2. Ben_Cambs
    Hi and welcome to the forum!
  3. Ben_Cambs
    Hi all, hope you had a good day. So after this morning's snow which gave about an inch, it remained largely cloudy with an odd sunny break, until around 12:30pm. Some heavy snow at times this afternoon though was falling on wet surfaces. Perhaps 3-4cm on the grass, but looking lovely and wintry. Hopefully dew points should start to fall soon, with the chance of more snow a bit later on, I would of thought. Could be icy in the morning.
  4. Ben_Cambs
    Good luck to everyone today! Probably won't be able to come on again until the late afternoon (or later than that if conditions are bad! ). Still snowing lightly here.
  5. Ben_Cambs
    Morning all, nice covering here too and snowing lightly, a bit more to come too! Hopefully a taster for later on today.
  6. Ben_Cambs
    Going to call it a night - could do with a good night's sleep! Nice NAE 18z and GFS 18z. See you all in the morning!
  7. Ben_Cambs
    The main band is coming during the course of tomorrow.
  8. Ben_Cambs
    This latest Met office press release worth a read: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/ice-and-snow-continue
  9. Ben_Cambs
    Expecting amber warnings to be issued for most in the region by the Met office later for tomorrow, would be very suprised if they didn't.
  10. Ben_Cambs
    GFS 06z update: better for our region for tomorrow with the mild sector further west! http://modeles.meteo.../gfs-2-30.png?6 http://modeles.meteo.../gfs-2-36.png?6 http://modeles.meteo.../gfs-2-42.png?6 Will wait for GFS 0.5 to update to confirm..
  11. Ben_Cambs
    Morning all. Somehow I'm up this early (on a Sunday!) so an update on the models for tomorrow. NAE: First band of snow arriving around 6am: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/13/basis00/ukuk/prty/13011406_1300.gif Weakening as it travels east. NAE predicting only about 1-3mm of precipitation from this first band. Second band of precipitation arriving during the early afternoon: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/13/basis00/ukuk/prty/13011412_1300.gif http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/13/basis00/ukuk/prty/13011418_1300.gif Second band delivers about 3-6mm of precipitation. A look at the dew points from midday onwards. Need the DP to be 0C or below: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/13/basis00/ukuk/taup/13011412_1300.gif http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/13/basis00/ukuk/taup/13011415_1300.gif http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/13/basis00/ukuk/taup/13011418_1300.gif http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/13/basis00/ukuk/taup/13011421_1300.gif Looks OK for most of the region. Perhaps the risk of marginality towards the SW of the areas covered in this thread however this can and will change. GFS appears to be a bit more marginal particularly late afternoon. First band is fine as all snow: http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011300/30-574.GIF?13-0 http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011300/33-574.GIF?13-0 However more marginal in the afternoon as the second band arrives, again more towards the SW of the region but the marginality on the GFS affects more of the region too on the 0z. http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011300/36-574.GIF?13-0 http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011300/39-574.GIF?13-0 Partly down to this milder wedge of air mid-afternoon, travelling south-east. http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011300/36-7.GIF?13-0 http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011300/39-7.GIF?13-0 As for the UKMO and ECM models regarding Monday and the 850hPa temperature, UKMO would look fine to me and ECM it's difficult to say because of the 24 hour period between charts, but has -6 850hPa over the whole region between 1am Monday morning and 1am Tuesday morning, admittidly not too sure where the mild sector is on this run, but looks OK to me. Met office forecast for east of England for tonight and Monday: FAX's will be interesting this morning to see where they place the mild sector (last night's didn't have it near this region). Also for further interest, 3-5 day outlook for the east of England: All to play for. A more general model update shows the cold spell lasting untl the end of the weekend at the earliest, so more snow potential and cold- v.cold conditions over the next week I would of thought.
  12. Ben_Cambs
    See you all in the morning! Will try to do a morning model update if I'm up early enough (might be a struggle considering it's a Sunday tomorrow lol). As has been mentioned, snow showers possible tomorrow across Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex.
  13. Ben_Cambs
    Just like to say good luck to everyone on this thread for next week! Hopefully it will deliver for everyone.
  14. Ben_Cambs
    Well tonight's FAX's look great for our region! The mild sector should be less of an issue for EA + 3 counties. Do expect changes though in the models tomorrow, however I'm confident at the moment that Monday will deliver a snowfall.
  15. Ben_Cambs
    Norfolk will be fine!
  16. Ben_Cambs
    Evening all, hope you had a good day. Tried to keep up with the latest developments, though sadly came across 'this winter is terrible' posts in the MOD. Unfortunately my phone isn't good enough to sign in and keep up with this thread! Thanks to John Pike for the update. Monday isn't set in stone, it will come down to radar watching and now-casting. Don't forget, the models don't control the weather..
  17. Ben_Cambs
    I'm noticing the fact that the GFS is putting any breakdown further and further back. But anyway, still looks fine for Monday's, into Tuesday's snow on the 0z.
  18. Ben_Cambs
    Haha oh dear, my apologies, somehow missed them! Shall take a look at them!
  19. Ben_Cambs
    Hi John, sorry I was referring to the updated FAX's (T+96 and T+120)
  20. Ben_Cambs
    Hi Jason, hope you are well. Wonder if the other models will begin to pick up on this second shortwave tomorrow. Unless I'm mistaken only GFS is picking up on this second shortwave on Tuesday, interesting to see the model output tomorrow and if they begin to pick up on this feature!
  21. Ben_Cambs
    Yes Wednesday could also provide heavy, penetrating snow showers from the North Sea! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011118/gfs-0-120.png?18
  22. Ben_Cambs
    Hi John, Yes it could be a very tasty chart! Please keep up the FAX updates, I enjoy reading them as I'm sure many others do too!
  23. Ben_Cambs
    Monday's and overnight into Tuesday's snow on 18z: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011118/gfs-2-66.png?18 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011118/gfs-2-72.png?18 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011118/gfs-2-78.png?18 Then a shortwave delivers a second band of snow later on Tuesday: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011118/gfs-2-96.png?18 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011118/gfs-2-102.png?18 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011118/gfs-2-108.png?18
  24. Ben_Cambs
    GFS 18z looks similar to 12z in regards to Monday/Monday night/Tuesday. Interestingly, the shortwave that appeared on the 12z which could potentially deliver a second band of snow on Tuesday is on the 18z aswell.
  25. Ben_Cambs
    Here's an amended post similar to one I made this morning. Snow possible for areas south of the M4 corridor tomorrow, with a light covering in places. Snow showers on Sunday in Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex and maybe Kent, some showers pushing inland at times too. Monday into Tuesday could provide a significant fall of snow for the vast majority in this region. Snow potential continues thereafter, cold - v.cold conditions continuing with sharp frosts overnight.
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