Ben_Cambs

Morning all, Wet start to the morning as expected with plenty more to come. Sadly, more flooding is likely today.

A look up to Boxing Day using the models: A band of heavy rain will move eastwards during the course of tomorrow, not clearing the east coast until the evening. Up to 30mm+ possible in some areas towards the south coast (GFS 06z PPN accumilation up to 00:00 on Sunday): http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs4214.gif NAE 06z PPN accumilation up to 00:00 on Sunday: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/12/21/basis12/ukuk/rsum/12122300_2112.gif The area of LP will introduce a mild sector of air into Sunday: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn422.png Very mild overnight, not falling below 9-10C in some areas. Sunday will be a very mild day for the time of year and will be mainly dry for all though quite windy, with temperatures up to 13C. Into Christmas eve, a bit more uncertainty, but to my eye it's not looking as wet as it was looking yesterday: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax84s.gif?20-0 Some light rain around, particularly towards the south of the region, but clearing into the afternoon. Still mild, though not as mild as Sunday, with maximum temperatures of around 10C. Onto Christmas day, at the moment it's looking mainly dry with a risk of a few showers. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif Temperatures varying from 7C in the north of the region to 10C on the south coast. A slight frost into Boxing Day. Boxing Day again appears mainly dry with the risk of a few showers, though in a cooler airflow temperatures will be lower than Christmas Day, with maximum temperatures between 4-7C.

Nice photo Coast, quite a similar scene to here. I do remember back in June the streams running very high, though not as high as today!

When I was out earlier I saw plenty of raging streams and drainage ditches at brimming point. Should've taken my camera out with me! A lot of surface water on the roads, take care.

18mm since the rain started now, a bit more to come possibly then a respite tomorrow. Weekend, particularly Saturday not looking great: GFS PPN accumilation up to the end of the weekend: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs9014.gif FAX's suggest that Sunday may be dry for many after a wet Saturday, though windy: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif More rain into Monday however: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

16.2mm has fallen since the rain started last night.. more to come during the course of today. Saturday also looks pretty wet looking at the models, though tomorrow should be dry.

Had 3mm of rain from the heavy pulse of rain that recently passed through. Weather not looking too great in the next few days with a wet weekend likely too, particularly Saturday. GFS 12z precip. accumilation up to Sunday: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs9614.gif Feel very sorry for those in the south-west, sadly more flooding is likely in parts of the south-west over the next few days. Further out to this Christmas period, at the moment it is looking likely LP will dominate the weather, temperatures around average with the risk of rain and windy conditions at times. GFS for Christmas Day: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png ... and ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif Not mild but certainly not the Christmas weather we are all after!

GFS 12z would be perfect weather for Christmas Day! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.png

A wet end to the day coming up tomorrow and into Thursday as portrayed by the FAX charts: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif GFS 12 PPN accumilation up to lunchtime Thursday: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs4814.gif Most rainfall further south and west in the region. As a comparison the NAE 12z: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/12/18/basis12/ukuk/rsum/12122012_1812.gif Again going for substiantially more rainfall than GFS. Judging by recent performances, I'd expect GFS to be closer to the mark out of the two. Possibly more rain on Saturday. Towards the weekend the models diverge, with the possibility of a continental influence to our weather by the weekend as per the GFS 12z (even some snowfall on Sunday from the GFS 12z on this run) , however equally the Atlantic may break through as per UKMO 12z. Also, happy birthday Jason!

Morning all, Three years ago today many of us were looking forward to heavy snowfall in the evening... Currently 5.2C here and mostly cloudly with a light breeze.

Evening all, hope you had a good weekend! From what I gather from this thread and the MOD is that an easterly, or some form of easterly influence later next week is looking highly unlikely, though at this stage cannot be ruled out. It does seem however that a deep area of LP is likely to be a major player in our weather around the Christmas period. Where this tracks will have an impact upon whether we see some standard wet and windy British weather or possibly something more interesting than that. Meanwhile this week is looking pretty average weather wise for December, not too mild but overcast for a lot of the time with rain returning mid-week.

A look at the next 5-6 days using tonight's model output: After a frost during the first half of the night, milder air will filter into the region during the early hours with an increasing breeze. A band of rain will cross the region during the course of tomorrow, with some gusty winds up to 50-60mph particularly on the south coast, as represented by the tightness of the isobars on these charts: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs241.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs271.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs301.gif Rainfall will be a feature of tomorrow, predicted totals by GFS 12z up to 00:00 Saturday: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs3614.gif And NAE 12z: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/12/13/basis12/ukuk/rsum/12121500_1312.gif Highest rainfall totals likely across the south coast tomorrow. Temperatures much milder than of late, maximum temperatures 9-11C. Over the weekend, still quite windy for all. Both days will have some showers, heavy at times though some may get away with a dry weekend, with some sunny spells. Temperatures maxing out at 7-9C on both days over the weekend, though both nights will remain frost-free due to the overcast conditions. Into the new week, turning less windy and most likely a couple more dry days Monday and Tuesday with a weak ridge of HP building in: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png Frost increasingly likely again overnight with temperatures during the day between 5-8C with sunny spells. Going further ahead, the models diverge with different solutions past T+120, dependant on the track of the low out in the mid-Atlantic, which could provide some interesting synoptics on the models in future runs as shown by tonight's output.

Not again!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

Morning all, minimum of -4C overnight, currently -2.8C and sunny. Enjoy the last day of this cold spell!

So many fantastic photos on this thread today! Temperatures in some areas tonight falling to around -5C or -6C, so hopefully some decent wintry scenes tomorrow too. After tomorrow though, the Atlantic returns...

Morning all, currently -5.2C here. Perhaps an ice day for quite a few people today?

Was going to post this earlier, but then the forum went offline. Just a quick look using the models for the week ahead: Remaining cold over the next couple of days, temperatures struggling tomorrow and some areas may even have another ice day tomorrow. Into Thursday, some wintry precipitation possible for areas south of London. Remaining cold, but the colder weather will be broken down during Thursday night into Friday as fronts delivering rain and some gusty winds pass through, leading to much milder conditions than of late. Our weather will be dominated from a big area of LP in the mid-Atlantic as we head into the new week. However, it will struggle to get any further past the UK due to the huge block of HP over Russia, as demonstrated by the UKMO 12z T+96 through to T+144: T+96: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif T+120: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif T+144: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif Consequently, after our current cold weather breaks down on Friday, temperatures are likely to remain around average for the time of year, or even still slightly below: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Going out to around this time next week, I'd be confident of unsettled weather controlling our weather, however nothing too mild temperature wise, particularly after Saturday. Some longer spells of rain are likely aswell as some showers, with the risk of frost at night during clearer spells of weather. However, the wind is also likely to be a big factor in the weather and remaining breezy throughout at least. Currently -3.2C with thick fog here.

Afternoon all. After a thick frost this morning it has turned increasingly foggy in the past couple of hours. Temperature is currently -0.8C.

I believe the GFS is showing a little snow from the weakening occluded front that moves in on Thursday, introducing the milder air as the front passes through: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif By the way, I hope you all had a good time on Saturday!

I'd also like to wish everyone going to the regional meet-up tomorrow evening a good time! Who knows, maybe the outlook will of changed for the better in the morning?

Everyone on this thread really appreciates your input John! Your updates are a really valuable part of this thread!

18z model update for the morning: GFS: A little snow in a few areas north of London in the morning: http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2012120618/12-574.GIF?06-18 http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2012120618/15-574.GIF?06-18 NAE: Some snow over parts of East Anglia: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/12/06/basis18/ukuk/prty/12120712_0618.gif This is just the models view, I wouldn't be suprised if a few other areas that have not been mentioned did see a brief period of sleet or snow in the morning.

Currently 3.2C with a DP of 1.4C. Hasn't been much rainfall so far.

Good evening everyone. Here's my take on tonight's model output: After rain tonight, clearing in the morning with the risk of back-edge sleet and snow in a few areas, though mainly in East Anglia. Strong winds slowly dying down through the day, leading to frost into Saturday, which will be dry for all with some sunny spells though remaining cool. Another frost into Sunday, which will be dry but cloudier than Saturday with the wind increasing again. UKMO T+96: http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm961.gif GFS T+96: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn961.png ECM T+96: http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm961.gif Out to Monday, all three main models have a similar pattern. An area of LP over Germany feeding N'ly/NNW'y winds over the region. Showers likely over the eastern side of the region in particular. The showers will be mainly of rain on Monday, perhaps a little sleety at times. Maximum temperatures 2-5C. UKMO T+120: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif GFS T+120: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png ECM T+120: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif A little difference between the models by Tuesday, GFS and ECM going for a stronger wind off the North Sea compared to UKMO, GFS the strongest. Precipitation coming off the North Sea would turn increasingly wintry, particularly inland. However, there is little reason to comment on the potential snow risk, as we are still a long long way off forecasting wise, where troughs of organised precipitation for example may not be picked up until within 24 hours of time. UKMO T+144: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif GFS T+144: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png ECM T+144: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif Plenty more divergence from the models at this timeframe - however this is to be expected. For example, GFS and ECM are going for more a N'ly airflow a this timeframe. All three models though, show the cold, if not very cold conditions contiuing. Again, it would be wrong to comment on the snow potential at this point. GEFS London T850: http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png Mean goes to around -7C and doesn't really get above -5C until next weekend. The cold spell is nailed on now in my opinion. It's now a question of how cold and snowy it will get. Plenty of potential for snowfall and as has been mentioned, may not be picked up until a very short timeframe.

Separately, the 00z GFS doesn't show any snowfall tomorrow morning for our region, but the NAE has some snow again mainly for Norfolk: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/12/06/basis00/ukuk/prty/12120712_0600.gif Currently -4C here.