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Kentspur

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    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    17 minutes ago, danm said:

    Yep i think they do sometimes. Sheltered from snow showers in an easterly, often too far north for battleground snow, don't really benefit from snow showers in an artic northerly etc. 

    N London I find a half decent spot for our region to get snow. Last year it was sweetspot in Dec 22 pretty much. Then December 17 which was rain sleet south of the Thames here. Late Jan 2021 I think we missed out London had a good covering sleety rain here. when I lived in Herts was always 1.5-2c colder than by the Thames here Feb 06 I think I saw twice as much snow in Herts& N London as back in Kent from a Channel low and lasted 2 days longer up north of the Thames too! The rare October 2008 snow only settled Central London northwards too I believe Cheshire gap made it there!

     

    Nothing here then there's many other north of the M4/ Thames events. Jan 05 I believe there was also a smaller snow event that made it to where I was living 04 to 07 in Herts but missed back home. Prior to this era I remember I was often too far West my mum in Medway would often see NElies deliver snowfalls that narrowly missed Gravesend where I am now and Dartford where I'm from.

    It feels like here relies on the 1% perfect set up to see any snowfall were always milder than surrounding areas too which doesn't help nor being flat in the urban Thames flood plain other parts of the SE have more elevation including a lot of North and South London so any marginal setups fail to deliver here even if nearby places get some.

     

    I hope we all get a proper snowy Easterly soon I really do!

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, throwoff said:

    I think this is one of the closest no shows we have had in a fair while. Hurts all the more 

    The thing I will say is that it may not have settled even if it had fallen my friend in Normandy says they're expecting a mix of rain sleet and snow there so we'd probably be complaining about that rarely do Northerlies deliver anything decent roll on the February- March traditional Easterly chase I say...

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, SnowBorder said:

    I often see the Chapmans van making deliveries 🐟 - last Monday, we had lying snow on rooftops and grass but nothing on the pavements. Knockholt and Halstead on the north downs probably did better. As you drive up Star Lane towards Knockholt, you can often see the snow line half way across the farmers field. 

    Interesting some of my ex colleagues it was a random job I took to get out of a completely diff career ive since worked in a completely different career since them days much better😀. I like the areas around their Borough Green was where the depot relocated too loved driving through Meopham and Wrotham Hill when it snowed there like a different world to here!

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, SnowBorder said:

    From the 6 weather apps on my phone, only accuweather is showing snow for Wednesday morning, although the app does claim to have ‘superior accuracy’

    I need to relocate your sorta way always do so much better than low lying parts of our side of the county by the Thames here! Did u have any accumulation a week back? Nothing settled at all here I used to work for a company Chapmans of Sevenoaks for a few years I remember getting stuck in the snow during the beast there was way more that way than here then too

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, snowblind said:

    GEM seems to be the keenest on something across our region on Wednesday. Again pivoting the system into Kent and dragging something in across East Anglia.

    The others are pretty much the same as previous runs, GFS just clipping into Kent. Icon and UKMO, a bit further south.

    image.thumb.png.57bef12eebe7d016abc6a0deac04a986.png

    Haha couldn't make it up haha 😆 🤣  I'm in the start of that dry gap between the band over the rest of my county and the one over EA hopefully the signal strengthens be lovely to see us all get atleast a small amount

    • Like 1

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    Central London 1-2c colder than parts of NW Kent tonight 0 to -1c here -2c there by the looks of it, backs up my point were usually warmest in a lot of setups hence the failed snowfalls of recent years except last December . Late January 2021 I think it was? Even central London had snow cover while we had mainly rain and a bit of sleet a few miles east here!

    Screenshot_20240115_154759_X.jpg

    Screenshot_20240115_154814_X.jpg

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    3 hours ago, Reefseeker said:

    A beautiful winter's morning here in Surbiton, after a hard overnight frost (the closest to anything looking like snow we're likely to get!), the air is crisp and sunny under blue skies, although rather raw walking into that wind. I'm loving the seasonal weather personally, but am disappointed at the lack of the white stuff later in the week. We're off to Prague for a few days on Saturday, so the cold weather will be good practice for correct clothing choices; hoping that storm doesn't come in too early and disrupt the flights.

    Its funny as standing outside here in 5c feels colder than -9c when I was in Sweden there's def a different sort of cold on the continent for sure a shame you're not in Prague a bit earlier they have snow in the next few days hope it stays for when you're there have a great time! My 2 trips to Northeast Europe so far have been lucky for me had snow not only in Sweden in November but also a couple inches in Riga, Latvia on my only other trip to the other side of Europe highly reccommend that place for a Christmas break Unesco world heritage site the whole city and great value much cheaper than Scandinavia food was awesome and biggest market in Europe

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    41 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    I always have respect for this model mate. 

    Icon did very well here in the damp squib on Monday it correctly forecast a fair amount of falling snow showers here with a few heavy bursts that we had too but it also showed no settling snow by the Thames, but this time it does on Wednesday... anyway still too early for specific details from a complex setup ECM etc so no atm

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    I'm sure many in here will agree this is the best outcome for 'all' because it brings snow to the south east 😉

    Common conception is that frontal snow is bad because it always means a return to mild weather, which simply isn't true. Plus, frontal snow doesn't need as cold an airmass as convective snow.

    Just things that frustrate me in this forum. It would though be surprising if there weren't other smaller features popping up in such an unstable and messy looking flow. They're just always likely to be more localised and often but not always smaller amount of snow than from a front.

    Seems to be more than the Southeast look at the north! Scotland N England it wants to shut down most areas here 😀.  The earlier GFS straight-line Northerlies were showing mainly cold dry conditions for most E/NEly seems much better for much more areas even western areas there

    gfs-16-306.png

    gfs-0-300.png

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1
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