Kentspur
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Posts posted by Kentspur
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NAO also finally forecast to turn negative often I've found more cold spells have relied on this even more than a negative AO here but clearly both is what we need ideally
Would be wonderful to have a decent 1987 like January for once in our life I was only just born a few months before that so dont remember it clearly
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A good clustering of colder ensembles for even this far SE 12z GFS and surprisingly some snow spikes
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29 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
It’s going for it in FI again
The time the AO looks to go negative too
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30 minutes ago, Fergpfc said:
Hi,CF,had it here (Portsmouth)Jan 03.heavy rain turned to heavy snow in no time had 2 inch snow in less than an hr if I recall correctly. Amazing seeing the lighting light the snow covered landscape as it was evening time.hope you get to experience it soon
Jan 04 here in the SE I remember playing footy outside then boom a crack of Thunder and Light rain turned to fairly heavy snow in no time and had a few cms settle at 0c a drop in minutes
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AO looking better tonight towards New Year
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8 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:
Great pics both! Post them on the MAD thread for a wind up.
I didn't think Scandinavia and Finland were going to get any more snow what with global boiling etc.
They must have been taken well away from the heat radiating runways mind.
Funny u say this I thought I was replying to the post in the mad thread then it must have got moved lol. As for runways I'm not so sure I had 1.5hr delays due to there being a snow plough needing to clear the runway and also de icing the plane. Then I landed at Gatwick after circling while Gatwick apparently was slipper by due to a light frost just to add to my delays
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1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
Whereabouts in Sweden is that street? Looks lovely. I've only been to Stockholm but it was a very different vibe to that. Very modern and minimalist.
Sigtuna where according to Mytrueancestry.com I have ancient ancestors from! As do many Brits (vikings) It's the oldest town in Sweden def worth a day trip the place that Christianity was first practiced in Sweden and the transport networks fantastic a 3 day pass bus train tram which goes far out of the city cost something like £30-35 quid.
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2 hours ago, danm said:
-12c in Lapland. Snow knee deep where it’s been untouched. Pristine, white, powdery snow…wish we got more of this at home!
Reminds me of Sweden a fortnight ago
funny thing is they will lose their snow cover this week by the looks of it! As I was leaving there was several inches more snow there too so glad I visited I'm looking at doing short breaks to Denmark and Norway next maybe Lapland when the budget allows lovely photos pal!
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Huge difference to our NW (for the better) on the 18z vs 12z Boxing day
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18 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:
Given the weight of evidence towards Christmas cold, I think for those of a betting nature, a flutter on a white Christmas might be a good shout this year…
I said this yesterday
while not exactly 99% confident the odds surely are better value than normal
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7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
We are in early signs of potential change. The change that will gather momentum imo. Even at this early stage….encouraging. Today in Surrey with the windchill…it was really cold and NOT mild. Real Cold is ‘on tap’ this winter imo….Can we tap in? Chances are very much there…..but I think ‘plunging lows’ NW/SE or trough to our NE is the way ahead around Xmas week
BFTP
I
And this is precisely the reason why I've put a few little bets on a white Christmas
if only thete was one on solar flares or AO and NAO signals or MJO phases we could all cash in a few days ahead 
A couple of these odds are a bit strange Aberdeen looks very good! Paris surprised me as they average slightly colder than London in winter for example maybe they think any snow will come from the N with Newcastle and Manchester low odds
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4 hours ago, Northwest NI said:
There is a real sense this year that all of this, including our recent “taster” cold snap, is building up to something.
Until a solar flare ruins it 3 days before Christmas like 2 years back!
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I think everyone's fave model CFS has lost the plot early on today or is it doing what it does best spotting a new trend ahead of the more medium range models? Already blocking appearing in a weeks time and it doesn't let go further into the run
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1 minute ago, That ECM said:
Bound to be uncertainty at T240. That’s a lot though.
Though it looks more certain for Athens Istanbul and Crete than our part of the
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20 minutes ago, carinthian said:
Evening all. This was the temperatures outside my daughters home in Stockholm earlier today. One of the coldest December nights on record there. It appears looking at the models for next week the Atlantic lows hit the buffers and undercut against the entrenched cold across Southern and Central Scandinavia. I am just wondering whether this is going to help veer the flow quicker than expected across the UK and return the cold ? Could be some surprising runs over the coming days !
C
It appears my -9c I had in Stockholm in the week was mild compared to this I must admit it definitely didn't feel as cold as -9c feels here! 6inches of snow when I landed and 9inches of snow by my last day was most welcome!
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29 minutes ago, ScottSnow said:CFS on wetterzentrale leading to Christmas.
I don’t place much faith in it but it did ‘seem’ to pick out the late Nov cold well.
A beast with -14/15c uppers over the SE on the shortest day as we enter Christmas week, yes please CFS! Please be right just for once!!
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Slight partial dusting after some huge wet flakes fell this morning for a little while feeding the muntjac bucks here on the Suffolk-Norfolk borderlands. Feels very seasonal here! After being in Sweden and then encountering some snow showers the morning after I came back back home ive now seen atleast a small amount of snow falling on 5 of the last 6 days a memorable period I wont forget
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3 hours ago, MattStoke said:
Longfetched SWly winds from the Canaries and PV back over Greenland-- the norm showing on GEM luckily its right at day 10.
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3 hours ago, MattStoke said:
Shoulda gone to Stockholm
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GFS 0z ensembles still have several members especially into fi that want to bring a colder spell even a few snow spikes showing which I dont usually see that far away! Still not giving up hope with a set like this. If all else fails Ive seen snow 4 days in a row- 3 days in Sweden walking around in 8inches of fresh powder snow was fun then came home yesterday and it snowed and laid on my car and grass/Walls and then tomorrow a chance of a small amount where I am in Anglia in the morning looking at the various precip snowfall models
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6 hours ago, Vortex3929 said:
Already a little slippery out there by 5pm. Walking home and wasn't the most secure on some steps. The only thing I really dislike about winter is ice, unless it's in a JD and coke.. that's acceptable
As soon as I did the Jameson Whiskey tour in Ireland I went off JD. Its barely distilled American crap, basically Irish whiskeys generally are the most distilled hence the triple distilled 3 diff pots used to process it iver sever days. Scottish are mainly double distilled we tasted all diff whiskeys there, also the Irish are much more environmentally friendly which is cool Ireland buy a lot of single used barrels that the Americans simply throw away to waste after only one barrel of whiskey is made, not to mention Jameson tastes way smoother than JD etc. But each to their own of course. They have to be a higher price due to the whiskey evaporating over the years.
As for the weather- I'm up in inland East Anglia until Monday now my attention has now switched to the snow to rain event Sunday morning. Dont think those wintry showers on the Norfolk coast will make it as far inland as my phone app suggested but its super cold and icy here! The winter lights are on here in Elveden Forest feels very festive!
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At the airport snows coming down thick and fast again. Hows the white gold going back home? Absolutely dreamy in you know where
went to visit my ancestors town Sigtuna the oldest town in the country a viking settlement. I thought I'd share some photos got around 8 possibly 9 inches of snow here now up from about 6inches when I landed 2 days ago. Off to Suffolk/Norfolk border tomorrow until Monday, hows the models looking for there I saw we have a yellow warning!
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I havent seen the BOM MJO forecast been posted for a while? Does this suggest it's inaccurate for our part of the world? As atm it's hardly covering itself in glory.