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Kentspur

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

    Same old story ! These cold pools are so sensitive to minor changes in the position and orientation of the high .

    Still not possible at this point to forecast if there’s going to be any decent convection off the North Sea .

    The ECM brought a chance for the far se , the GFS 06 hrs has some flurries for the east .

    Hopefully we can get a resolution to this tonight as it’s now around T96 hrs .

     

    The Icon brings a sleet and snow risk for NW Kent and S Essex morning of the 8th January 😉

    Screenshot_20240103_144828_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20240103_144819_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    35 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

    GFS 18z shows the mean getting down to around -6C at 850hPa, definitely has wintry potential to low levels. Of course one or two ensemble members still want to spoil the party, but the trend is a good one.

    We don't absolutely need super cold 850hPa temps to get snow to low levels - anything in this sort of range should be good enough for many of us. This is also now approaching the reliable.

    In terms of the longer-term outlook, I think there's still far too much scatter beyond the first third of the month at this stage. Mean is going cold-mild-cold with the 850hPa temperatures, as others have noted, it could still be cold at the surface under an inversion. The scatter becomes huge beyond the 10th though, so probably not worth worrying about exactly what will happen for now.

    The one point to make is that very mild seems to be off the table, which is the first time we've been able to say that in a while. There are no ensemble members wanting to take the 850s up into double figures, even in furthest FI.


    gfs-london-gb-515n-0e(16).thumb.png.b6cc96f79ba219f6481ae2c867ea6cbf.pnggfs-leeds-gb-54n-15w(2).thumb.png.1e0b773cd2c6e36a1c82a9e8ef67d905.pnggfs-aberdeen-gb-57n-2w(11).thumb.png.f8c24493980e225c91c0e94929014e4e.png

    And that's only -6c mean because of a couple of very much milder outliers I like to look at the biggest ensemble cluster which looks a bit colder than -6c I'd say so we're good as you say 

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    I think it is worth noting how cold it is across Sweden for example..

    Any winds from the NE will have some chill...!!

    Think I must have started something when I visited Stockholm locals were telling me it was their coldest in November since 2010 that got me thinking of that year the last time we had a really big snowfall at exactly the time I was in Sweden the last 3 days of November!.. I landed to 5-6 inches of freshly falling snow then by the time I left there was a gradual top up to around 10" let's hope we see something in the coming weeks and yes not just Kent haha 

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, AFCBSNOW said:

    I got caught in Gravesend for that. I couldn't get my car out of the Premier Inn car park.

    Oh better than me- got stuck for 6 hours trying to get to work had to turn around then wait for a tractor to clear the road and then the next day my car head gasket blew up 😆 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    19 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Convection wont be on the level of 27th February 2018 and never said it would. All I'm suggesting is with a tight easterly show on the ECM, light to moderate winds with -8/-9 uppers over a mild North Sea is enough to produce some significant streamer activity. Forecast for January 8th 6pm.

    image.thumb.png.06df8293302844beb37a5b0b6fb6c2ae.png

    Blue centred right over my areas of work&living 😀 interesting JMA is similar but is more NEly than the ECM ENEly flow cant stress enough how much we need that ENEly flow for any possibly precip to arrive in SE London/NW Kent else it will merely be a EA coastal& East Kent Clipper with occasionally as far west as Medway joining in as we seemed to find a lot in the 1990s and early to mid 00s

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    20 minutes ago, Derecho said:

    You've shown a chart from the BFTE in 2018 instead, overnight the uppers were much colder (the snowy weather took hold on the 27th Feb)

    image.thumb.png.ab916fb3cc0756120fa1ecb11bd22c2d.pngimage.thumb.png.703abc2c23c49a4d2849146ac1ac45c5.png

    Completely different scenario, the BFTE had -10 to -15 uppers at the end of that February with the centre of the high well to the north of the UK.

    We may get upgrades if an area of low pressure develops but that easterly flow itself would just deliver a few snow showers.

     

    Also here are the snow totals for Feb 2021, big totals in Scotland came from days prior to this event and as mentioned the snow in the SE came from an area of low pressure affecting the SE at the time that cleared into the continent.

    image.thumb.png.aef35c1dc379aa53123f40df5126e478.png

    The below examples are what would cause big snowfalls from an easterly.

    image.thumb.png.e343414a7cfa7ff856f70cd2109df4a3.pngimage.thumb.png.87d74781073d0e6df18c9fb578ed6467.pngimage.thumb.png.63cab43677114689fabe71691b7951e7.png

    10 was epic 3 days of near constant snow here, 09 was best around Surrey/South London pretty decent in my area but only half the snow 2010 gave us here IMBY. 2018 too much of a ESEly/SEly looking at the reanalysis I can see why it failed to deliver as much for London Surrey and W of Kent and more places further north and likes of East and Mid Kent did better

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    A good example of an easterly which didn't produce much snow accumulation in the South East. Uppers being too high were the culprit, -4/-5 only here vs the -7/-9 forecast on the ECM. That extra 4/5 degrees is enough to drop the snow line by 1,000ft and significantly increase convection. 

    image.thumb.png.daa91213459af5bd9d69198d8888d24d.png

    image.thumb.png.988255db24e4a72a3b4035bc9030a2e3.png

    Isobar not particularly tight either and for here in NW Kent&S Essex/London/Thames etc there's too much N of East in the flow more conducive to a light East Kent clipper

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    26 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

     

    Not really - the main thing here is the tightness of the easterly flow and relatively warm SSTS. On this night 30cm fell in the South East with largely speaking similar 500mb heights as forecast on ECM.

    image.thumb.png.d81fde806aa17653ff053f3fa75f665d.png

    ECM forecast:

    image.thumb.png.edc61a419ccc8a1870394b7e23cfe320.png

    Mid Kent had a decent fall when we had a bit of a brief Kent Clipper NEly flow (dry here) but then after instead of our holy grail ENEly we ended up Too much East of South flow ESEly and About 2miles north of.me northwards got the goods while we had dregs max we had fall at any time in Gravesend, NW Kent was 4inches the day Maidstone etc had more than double that, the main thing I recall from the Beast week was the depth of cold powdery light snowfall and the howling wind turning my tables and chairs upside down on my balcony by the Thames. Swly/Wly winds our default are barely noticeable where I am as I'm also at the bottom of a North facing road that's hilly and slopes to the Thames. Had slightly more snow fall in last Decembers surprise fall on the 11th than during the beast!

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    3 minutes ago, Gowon said:

    That'll end up being cold rain, or sleet at best.

    Way to far out to specify its showing that now but quite often if other models come on board the modelled airmass is colder nearer the time I've found on past experience of my 20years on this forum on GFS and streamers arent picked up well in advance either.

     

    Although the climate has warmed since then. Often Croydon is a good spot when a Thames streamer sets up more inland and a little more elevated than where I am flat as a pancake

    • Like 3

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    1 hour ago, TN9 said:

    Merry christmas to a fantastic bunch of people and i guess my boy is as mad as me ,wish i could of gone with him ,hes half way up Ben Nevis ,why ? He wanted to see some snow ,nut case 

    Merry christmas 

    20231225_105528.jpg

    That's awesome sorta thing I'd do haha like my break to the wilderness in snowy Sweden last month

    GFS ensembles giving hope for these sort of conditions being possible here 2nd week January- with a looming SSW anythings possible!

     

    Merry Christmas 🎅 🎄 ❄️ 🏔 🌨 ☃️ 

    Screenshot_20231225_123344_Samsung Internet.jpg

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