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Kentspur

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    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    Seems unlikely with +4 860 temps for much of the S though

    image.thumb.png.47bc244491ea0befacfcec4176c078b7.pngimage.thumb.png.8c5982555fdc3994b0aab5e170bd3de3.png

    GFS snow chart not bad either away from far S Not that these mean anything right now.

    image.thumb.png.2ba283aa6f32151a88f0e8628ada79c0.png

    A little patch of blue brushing NW Kent there. GEM is notoriously poor at forecasting upper air temps at range remember when it always used to forecast 40c days before we'd ever seen that. 

     

    Early days atm and I'll be in the pine forests of East Anglia first few days of December so that will do on either model just nice to see these wintry scenarios being churned out!

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    30 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Nice little snow event for central areas in just over a week’s time on the GFS 0z.

    IMG_3018.jpeg

    IMG_3019.jpeg

    Ooh looks lovely when I'm on break number 2 at Elveden forest having been under a Baltic beast for several days😍 All this overtime I'm working will be worth it barely had a day off work this month lol

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Hay guys,...not posted in a while but i have been lurking,...i just want to express my fealings before i post some charts,i have not posted because i had an illness of depression thanks to some personal issues but i am finally on the mend, @blizzard81 so sorry mate to here this and i wish you all the best

    the way i see it is trough into Scandi with heights in the mid Atlantic and the Urals and because of this the low preasure systems are tracking more NW-SE instead of a west-east movement,this forses the jet more south thanks to wedges/ridges gaining more of a northerly latatude than previously seen back in the last few weeks

    mean jet out to 16 days,also you can see more of a raging jet through the Aleutians,this in turn amplifies the jet through N America and the Atlantic

     

    gensnh-31-3-384.thumb.png.ef32e9885ddbb5162b15a54ba5a75528.png

    A nice geo pot heights mean at day ten illustrates higher heights to our NW and urals blocking with neg heights NW Europe

    gensnh-31-5-240.thumb.png.02991cc809901cdbfc89d4df831ac6de.png

    CPC  days 6-10 and 8-14

    610day_03.thumb.gif.6d419b5a8c2e942cf640a66b02b9b8cc.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.05d6fc85c01e2b8ca787c7b97618e490.gif

    I will leave it there for now but a promising start to the first winter callender month is looking good

    night guys😉

     

    Sorry to hear matey hope you're feeling better now and these charts have cheered you up

    • Thanks 2

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    6 minutes ago, TillyS said:

     

    Those are the charts for Stockholm, which I think you ought really to tell people no?

    The GFS 0z for London ensembles do not show the operational to be anything far out of the mean and even in the later stages it certainly is not a mild outlier:

    Screenshot2023-11-21at06_36_07.thumb.png.8d424700be050dcfe67d67a35d2728fe.png

    2metre temps for HERE are showing it to be on the warm end but I get ya drift

    Screenshot_20231121-064143_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Just now, Kentspur said:

    2metre temps for HERE are showing it to be on the warm end but I get ya drift

    Screenshot_20231121-064143_Samsung Internet.jpg

    And 850s too for the timeframe in question def at the warmer end of the mean

    Screenshot_20231121-064119_Gallery.jpg

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    9 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    How it started..

    F_QDx1dXwAAfTqQ.thumb.jpeg.48825ccfb4d36d91f533a27062333164.jpeg

    How it's going.. 

    gfsnh-0-102.thumb.png.9387b68f8036a6bbdba4fce7482e7d9a.png

    You can see the difference in the positioning of the high and just how much the GFS has shifted things SEwards in the last day or two. From Greenland highs and a split trop vortex to something far more watered down. I know the teleconnections have been snubbed by some in the last few days (I suspect due to a lack of understanding) due to those that follow them talking about them not being supportive of the first image but that's exactly what we're seeing come to fruition now. 

    High latitude blocking & Greenland highs don't just come out of thin air, they require appropriate forcing, when that is largely non-existent then chances are it's not going to happen. This mornings UKMO is even worse! 

    Well having checked the ensembles it seems in some places at various time frames this GFS OP runs a mild outlier...

    Screenshot_20231121-053541_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20231121-053556_Samsung Internet.jpg

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    2 hours ago, Crackerjack said:

    Yeh love Trance and I’m listening to it right now before I sleep 😊 have a great trip and enjoy the cold and snow ❄️ 

    Thanks pal I will do currently on a run of night shifts dont mind a bit of trance&dance music can think of worse genres. Now for a bit of model discussion-

    First out the blocks this morning Icon following the brief Northerly its showing a bit of a Scandi high of sorts and a slack NEly and -6c 850HPA temps in the East/SE 

    Screenshot_20231121-034525_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20231121-034533_Samsung Internet.jpg

    • Like 3

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    7 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:

    It was a joke Kentspur as you have mentioned you are going there a few hundred times already 😂 I’m jealous take me with you 🙏

    Haha I thought you might be. Are u in a trance-dance? I see your profile mentions you like that sorta music groovy grandad eh? could always join me at the Avicii experience 😉

    • Like 1

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Crackerjack said:

    Do you know someone going to Scandinavia soon Kentspur? 😜

    Yeah as its a model forum discussion and we have a couple Scandis in here good to get a bit of model analysis like Norwegian shortwaves going elsewhere also, we get input from members that live in Portugal and Alps and south of France etc so why not for there 😀

    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

    It’s hardly Dec 21 or 22 or  Jan 19 when the toys really came out…

    Anyway I really enjoy Jam’s posts on Twitter I think it’s a bit of good natured banter

    I think we only really get disappointed when there’s x model agreement and it falls apart 3-6 days out. 

    This time there’s never been any agreement and we’re collectively trying to figure it all out. I actually think the analysis - especially on the winter thread - has been really good. We have most of the big guns: Nick, Tamara, Matt, BA, Alistair, Aaron  and the rising stars such as my good pal @Kirkcaldy Weather on point and we have lots of new faces adding positively to the conversation.

    I’ve said it before: we can take quite a bit of stick online - the only way to alter  that is to increase the quality of our analysis and act with decorum and good humour.  (Eg not  seriously declaring winter’s over / getting all ‘told you so’ if the 18z is flatter…)

    We also have to remember that the ecm, while doubtless the strongest model, is wrong a lot.

    Tbh I think we’re doing better as a collective this year and we’re all looking forward to see how this potentially exciting winter, and indeed this particular spell, might turn out.

    In terms of where we are at, the signal for an Atlantic ridge at day 10 on the eps has increased since yesterday, my guess is it will improve further this evening

    image.thumb.gif.a6369d2da6f4e5d464451bb39a62f7f8.gif
     

    The GEFS have been really keen on this day 8-10 blocking, regardless of what happens in between… tonight’s big 3 are in more agreement about that than they are about days 5-7!

    GFS

    image.thumb.png.cdb4ca964387374c7e862baa5123c52f.png

    GEM

    image.thumb.png.fe9af4f81670950db997e3980432e7e7.png

    ECM 

    image.thumb.gif.a5855d266ae7c0e4425d29851256e4e6.gif

    And as for the ever reliable ecm, I wonder what it showed yesterday??

    image.thumb.gif.7dfa73944ec17d8d8a9d17a72f3a8019.gif
     

    I’ll get my ski coat!

    image.png

    Nice lil kinks in the isobar there over Southern Sweden 😉

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentspur

    1 hour ago, CoventryWeather said:

    Interesting towards day 10 that both the GFS and GEM are pretty similar. Charts below. 

    12_240_mslp500(1).thumb.png.986273b029c8f8fbe716b7731aa24e36.png

    12_240_mslp500.thumb.png.7dcea467828f1884320bbe46be0349f4.png

    Perhaps a sign of agreement in the mid range, it's just how we get to that stage (two completely different scenarios). Or perhaps it's just coincidence, still a lot of work in the short term to deal with. 

    Is that a snowy Easterly for when im in Stockholm 😉  Lake effect snow showers forming over the Baltic sea?

    • Like 2
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