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Everything posted by Kentspur
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The ensembles must be seeing something the GFS op was mostly a warm outlier anyhow im keeping the faith and happy to wait it out... -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As expected GFS 6z op run an outlier towards the end (full ensembles not out just yet on wetterzentrale) but trending colder for north and south alike -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You're fine up in Scotland looks primed for some atleast temporary snowfalls being that far north. Anyway wheres our ECM clusters brigade to bring us some festive cheer? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Best signal yet for a significant SSW on the GFS ensembles now the clusters growing past the 0 mark. Merry Christmas all! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can someone nuke the M4/ Thames lol this WILL happen guaranteed as its the default set up -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Interesting although it's a bit of a cold outlier towards the end there does appear some support for almost as cold conditions even the control run leans cold with the ensembles seemingly splitting into 2 camps. What's most interesting is the supppsedly higher resolution Op and Control are in the colder camp! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well I always here about these 11 year cycles could we be aligning for another though I don't remember 2001-02 being anything special -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Common knowledge on here mate on average its a 2/3 chance so the Met have mentioned in the past just gotta hope it falls right for us and we don't end up too far east or west of any high lat blocking set ups -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wow best I've seen yet more ensembles going further down on both GFS and CFS! Getting increasingly confident in a significant SSW! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
AO and NAO both going negative in time for our increasingly likely decline in zonal winds Would be lovely to see a decent snowy spell in peak winter for once! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Euro heights delaying things? Late Jan best I'd say for a downwelling you'd expect anyway given lag time if any SSW in Early Jan -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's earlier this year pal almost perfect timing in early January effects wouldn't last past the back end of February/early March should it occur as predicted currently on GFS etc -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A backing off signal for a SSW? The model was hitting the magic 0 line before on CFS ensembles in early January -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
NEly Toppler post xmas on GEM lol better than recent charts though and more of a NWly too at Xmas itself for the north -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Back to a chilly Christmas again on the 0z vs 18z GFS the drama continues WSW flow replaced by a PM NWly again I know we won't see anything down here but id still be happy for more of the country further north to see a white Christmsas should it happen -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Keep seeing signs of some sort of high pressure flirting with the region around Iceland I wonder if we will see upgrades to this in the coming days... reminds me a little of mid to late January 2013 when we had a high pressure wedge around the same locale that ended up giving us a good snow event in the SE hopefully like then those Iberian heights disappear -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Anyone able to interpret this better? My understanding is that it's showing a clear trend to +NAO Jan to March periods and might explain why there were so many epic 1960s winters. And why so many more recent winters such as 1989-90 and 90s winters and recent ones have been so mild and poor. Is it the Hadley Cell expansion causing more +NAO winters/March's also? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Another swing back to cold I swear the 0z are usually the mildest runs in prospective cold snaps not this week it seems 0z GFS vs 18z huge difference once again -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Never seen so much flip flopping from Icon 0z best run yet for Xmas completely different from 18z a few hours ago with a Northerly rather than a NWly so uppers sweep further south seasonal would be nice atleast down here! Will Icon set the tone? I doubt the models have reached agreement just yet lol -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Another huge ECM outlier at the end there! Ensembles aren't that cold for (this is for London) but further north in Scotland is def in the game -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A white Christmas for Scotland is looking ever more likely IMO looking at the snow. Charts from GFS and GEM agree with places like Cumbria too showing the white stuff. ECM 12z a tad better than of recent today! Poor for us in the south and east of course still -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Kentspur replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Huge difference between 6z and latest 12z the NWly gets further south and digs in a little longer 850HPA temps a massive difference sure its not the end of the drama either!