Kentspur

I havent seen the BOM MJO forecast been posted for a while? Does this suggest it's inaccurate for our part of the world? As atm it's hardly covering itself in glory.

NAO also finally forecast to turn negative often I've found more cold spells have relied on this even more than a negative AO here but clearly both is what we need ideally Would be wonderful to have a decent 1987 like January for once in our life I was only just born a few months before that so dont remember it clearly

GFS leading the way again?

A good clustering of colder ensembles for even this far SE 12z GFS and surprisingly some snow spikes

The time the AO looks to go negative too

Jan 04 here in the SE I remember playing footy outside then boom a crack of Thunder and Light rain turned to fairly heavy snow in no time and had a few cms settle at 0c a drop in minutes

AO looking better tonight towards New Year

Funny u say this I thought I was replying to the post in the mad thread then it must have got moved lol. As for runways I'm not so sure I had 1.5hr delays due to there being a snow plough needing to clear the runway and also de icing the plane. Then I landed at Gatwick after circling while Gatwick apparently was slipper by due to a light frost just to add to my delays

Sigtuna where according to Mytrueancestry.com I have ancient ancestors from! As do many Brits (vikings) It's the oldest town in Sweden def worth a day trip the place that Christianity was first practiced in Sweden and the transport networks fantastic a 3 day pass bus train tram which goes far out of the city cost something like £30-35 quid.

Reminds me of Sweden a fortnight ago funny thing is they will lose their snow cover this week by the looks of it! As I was leaving there was several inches more snow there too so glad I visited I'm looking at doing short breaks to Denmark and Norway next maybe Lapland when the budget allows lovely photos pal!

Latest 12z GFS op is one for the bin. Off the scale amongst its ensembles especially further North!

Huge difference to our NW (for the better) on the 18z vs 12z Boxing day

I said this yesterday while not exactly 99% confident the odds surely are better value than normal

And this is precisely the reason why I've put a few little bets on a white Christmas if only thete was one on solar flares or AO and NAO signals or MJO phases we could all cash in a few days ahead A couple of these odds are a bit strange Aberdeen looks very good! Paris surprised me as they average slightly colder than London in winter for example maybe they think any snow will come from the N with Newcastle and Manchester low odds

Until a solar flare ruins it 3 days before Christmas like 2 years back!

I think everyone's fave model CFS has lost the plot early on today or is it doing what it does best spotting a new trend ahead of the more medium range models? Already blocking appearing in a weeks time and it doesn't let go further into the run

Though it looks more certain for Athens Istanbul and Crete than our part of the

It appears my -9c I had in Stockholm in the week was mild compared to this I must admit it definitely didn't feel as cold as -9c feels here! 6inches of snow when I landed and 9inches of snow by my last day was most welcome!

A beast with -14/15c uppers over the SE on the shortest day as we enter Christmas week, yes please CFS! Please be right just for once!!

Slight partial dusting after some huge wet flakes fell this morning for a little while feeding the muntjac bucks here on the Suffolk-Norfolk borderlands. Feels very seasonal here! After being in Sweden and then encountering some snow showers the morning after I came back back home ive now seen atleast a small amount of snow falling on 5 of the last 6 days a memorable period I wont forget 20231203_052746.mp4 20231203_082733.mp4

Shoulda gone to Stockholm

GFS 0z ensembles still have several members especially into fi that want to bring a colder spell even a few snow spikes showing which I dont usually see that far away! Still not giving up hope with a set like this. If all else fails Ive seen snow 4 days in a row- 3 days in Sweden walking around in 8inches of fresh powder snow was fun then came home yesterday and it snowed and laid on my car and grass/Walls and then tomorrow a chance of a small amount where I am in Anglia in the morning looking at the various precip snowfall models

As soon as I did the Jameson Whiskey tour in Ireland I went off JD. Its barely distilled American crap, basically Irish whiskeys generally are the most distilled hence the triple distilled 3 diff pots used to process it iver sever days. Scottish are mainly double distilled we tasted all diff whiskeys there, also the Irish are much more environmentally friendly which is cool Ireland buy a lot of single used barrels that the Americans simply throw away to waste after only one barrel of whiskey is made, not to mention Jameson tastes way smoother than JD etc. But each to their own of course. They have to be a higher price due to the whiskey evaporating over the years. As for the weather- I'm up in inland East Anglia until Monday now my attention has now switched to the snow to rain event Sunday morning. Dont think those wintry showers on the Norfolk coast will make it as far inland as my phone app suggested but its super cold and icy here! The winter lights are on here in Elveden Forest feels very festive! 20231201_193357.mp4

At the airport snows coming down thick and fast again. Hows the white gold going back home? Absolutely dreamy in you know where went to visit my ancestors town Sigtuna the oldest town in the country a viking settlement. I thought I'd share some photos got around 8 possibly 9 inches of snow here now up from about 6inches when I landed 2 days ago. Off to Suffolk/Norfolk border tomorrow until Monday, hows the models looking for there I saw we have a yellow warning!