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Everything posted by Kentspur
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kentspur replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A little sprinkling here in NW Kent id be happy with a dusting tbh now were nearing mid March by this stage -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kentspur replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well I spy a blue pixel around about Steve Murrs house 5-10 miles south of me perhaps I could take a trip to see the elusive white gold -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kentspur replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mild weekend on UKMO unbelievable how quickly the pattern deteriorates! How id love the GEM 0z run to come off were nearly all back in minus 8-10c uppers by Sunday and most places seeing some of Andys Welsh white gold even much of Ireland and Cornwall! And Scotland gets buried as it does also on the GFS run which shows falling but not settling snow for us Southern&SEners. -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kentspur replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Start the day as you mean to go on. Lets hope for short term upgrades- slight upgrade on Icon 0z compared to the 18z for Wednesday even Cornwall's inside the 0c 850HPa. Thursday also a similar difference though Cornwalls in the + 850s by this stage but looks better for those central/ northern areas id assume. -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kentspur replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Best precip chart of the afternoon so far for the most populated mass in the country, as others said GFS is fine for high ground/ away from all of the south and EA etc but poor here. Btw anyone know what happened to William wordsworth aka Tight Isobar?? -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kentspur replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can I order #1 please for the largest urban masses -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kentspur replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Was this mid to late January 2013? -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kentspur replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Reminds me of 24th or 25th the January year before last! I was a few miles east of the white stuff in Central London who had a nice covering while we had rain and occasional sleet despite being forecast snow -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kentspur replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hadley cell expansion due to climate change -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kentspur replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Is it just me or is it more often than not the control run whether it be GFS or ECM that shows these wonderful looking charts most of the time -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kentspur replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS again showing the risk of some Wintry showers in the SE next week -8c HPA temps and a ENEly flow if only it was a month earlier! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kentspur replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's a catch 22 with the BFTEs they rarely seem to be of much use the further we get into March as the cold pools at our latitude to our east begin to wane, and by April for instance Northerlies have more bite than Easterlies obv not the best for us southern regions but as others mentioned convection can come into play with the increasing solar input. Just for once id love the GFS 6z to come off for us southern softies 28th Feb- 2nd March as much as its unlikely -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kentspur replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GEM 0z looking much colder compared to yesterday's 12z run also! Things are gathering pace for months end into the new month... -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kentspur replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lovely start to the day Daniel love your positive posts on here and twitter btw -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Kentspur replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
There will be another factor such as solar maximum in the way by then as well as the ever warming climate unfortunately. Always a complication -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kentspur replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kentspur replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kentspur replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kentspur replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I remember it well 18th the day I flew to Cork! My first ever visit to Ireland! -7c at Stansted under snow cover and clear skies and + double figures when I landed at Cork Airport an hour later in strong winds and horizontal rain it was insane! Let's pray this is the start of the ensembles such as ECM flatlining picking up on the SSW fallout promise -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Kentspur replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kentspur replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kentspur replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Makes me think ECM is going to be closer to the truth after all -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kentspur replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kentspur replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And back down to earth this morning again with just a few sub -5c ensembles showing for London including the op briefly but getting into February and the strengthening sun issue it prob wont cut it down south -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
Kentspur replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Shame its not settling stuff shown for many of us that haven't seen any this week but just for fun at that range anyway