Kentspur

Perfect wind vector for a Thames streamer on 15th

Icon 0z doesn't show any snow Late Sunday/ Monday but it does show precip which I assume is likely sleet&snow in the Southeast Tuesday night and Wednesday Morning as we get a better ENEly flow which usually gives us a little Thames streamer set up here

As I'm on night shifts from tonight I'm up for the early morning runs. Thought I'd post a bit about the Icon 0z run. Seems to have lost the signal for any SE snow on Sunday into Monday but instead it brings convective style E/NE winds to the SE Tuesday night and Wednesday Morning by t150 it is much improved with the ridging towards Greenland compared to yesterday's previous run-- a big step towards the 12z ECM op?

See you there im off flying to Cork from there myself on that Sunday morning

Although the high resolution shows rain in my area by the Thames as usual aswell as parts of East Sussex&SW Kent further South etc. BBC and Met app both show sleet BBC then goes onto show heavy snow symbols for Gravesend light snow for me at work in Dartford on my 12hr night shift. Anyone post the 6z NMM earlier? Looks like it spreads from the east on here Monday morning. Fingers crossed for a region wide SE&EA snow event to set the Mad thread off

Sadly it's heading for Normandy instead it seems but there's hope with the latest Met warnings showing 2-10cms quite widely across the SE& S'ern EA

Hi all, first post for a while for some reason it wouldn't let me type until I added photos?!?! Strange anyway this was my first visit today to Snaresbrook in East London where my friend from Poland lives I used to work with, couldn't believe how beautiful it was and rural! Who'd have thought zone 4 of London was like this. I noticed it was much colder there than when I got back home to Gravesend too the thermometer was 2c less cold here! Was some lovely frozen lakes and forest shrubs there 2nd best only to snow!

9/10 when Turkey is warmer than average were the opposite ive seen it so often!

Please can it hang on im there for the first time in Cork on 18th lol

I live maybe 2-3miles SE of that blue blob

But when the op and control are so tightly aligned I often think of them more as a trend finder given higher resolution. We live in hope

I'm actually visiting Cork, Eire on 18th to 20th with my lil bro it will be sods law we get a Thames streamer then Anyway back to the models...

Wheres the dislike button for us southern softies Its North of the... Thames for me

Yes I remember this event well 5c brief but of drizzle then an almighty cracking of thunder and the heavens opened temp dropped to 0c for a few mins I was outside playing football it was like magic- that's the last time I remember us having a fews cms from a Nly/NNWly flow down here

I thought so, Thank you was quite shocked if im honest! Didn't expect anything here im sure it will change I find Met app usually the most accurate for us here in the lowland urban heat island by the Thames noticed its yet to even mention sleet for here. Anyway model talk- Hope GFS is right in that case!

Which model is this run by?

Can I just say Daniel you're like the positive, calming influence many of us need on this forum. I for one always look forward and highly value your posts on here and twitter

Hope not my bro literally just booked our flights to Cork in a couple weeks time was hoping to see a rare white Xmas down south of Eire ive never been across the Irish Sea before! Absolutely stunning charts tonight, though as a NW Kentish man IMBY if I was being picky I'd like to see this modelled 150 miles further SE with more of a ENEly rather than NNEly flow as don't get snow from any other direction it seems even 2 years ago when London and parts of Surrey and Essex had some we had rain and sleet here. December 2017 I think it was same again when there was the north of the M4&Thames divide, the Kent clippers are too far east of here. Today I was getting soaked visiting Canterbury Christmas Market due to a rainy one! But Medway Westwards where I am was sunny! Shows what the difference wind vectors do even on a more microscale

And yet it still shows rain south of that famous motorway. Northerlies/NWlys only benefit the Midlands northwards unfortunately most of the time See this is where I feel we should have a Easterly chase vs Northerly model output chase lol

When Jules isn't posting I know we have a positive run going for us, the other day he mentioned ECM showing the Romanian high hopefully that's dispersed now looking at the op& recent mean, although will be interesting to see if it remains in the clusters

A cold December ahead I reckon I'll go with 1.8c and 56.5mm we haven't had any December CET at 1. Something if I'm reading this right so there we go.

(North of the M4) Still too far away to be believed. You'd think the shorter sea track between here and the low countries would mean colder uppers but I guess we're also very low lying and urban in the SE

They've got it in for us and yet good old Kent is the oldest civilisation in not so Great Britain the cheek of it eh I hope the UKMO day 7 charts verified with those -8c uppers and Snowy east-ne winds then we will see who's laughing

Well for me the GFS ensembles this morning are much better on this 0z suite than last nights 18z. It's clearer further north id suggest but even for my location in Kent there's a strong clustering of colder options present. Even the likes of Nov-Dec 2010 had the odd blip along the road. Keep the faith

The mean on the ensembles for 850 HPA temps is the coldest GFS run yet latest 18z attached For my location Gravesend, Kent and Edinburgh, Scotland the later also has a decent clustering of snow spikes towards the end now aswell a few stray ones for Gravesend too Long may the trend continue!