Kentspur

I heard the BBC apps use raw ECM data? Correct me if im wrong. The good thing about GFS 0z op run being a huge outlier this morning is that we havent got long to wait atleast for the 6z run

144 ECM 12z looking interesting!

Early stages but GEM is marginally better than its 0z at the same timeframe HIGH further west a little

My only gripe atm is that the temp anomalies are far from impressive given the pressure anomalies forecast. But after such a warm year not not surprise. Hopefully it trends colder nearer the time In the meantime another top 5warm month for November?

Is that almost a "sausage high" over Scotland& Southern Scandinavia. If only it could go a tad further north . Speaking of Scotland I'm there on Sunday for a few days looks like a lot of rain this time

Yes right over my place as usual . No its a 21c I'm sure because of the colour contours look at the 24c in France several shades more red though id love a 24c in the 2nd half of October!!

Looks "crunchy" for my next Scotland holiday in half term this time starting by the Fife might take a seasonal skinny dip. Looking forward to it after hitting a scorching 41c here in Gravesend this summer on the thermometer for the first time!

It can stay west based NAO for another month or 2 to allow us to top up the Southern&Eastern rainfall totals long as it shunts further east in time for winter!

One of thise days where my location is usually the warmest place car vs home thermometer almost identical Edit- identical!

Crazy warm still here in Gravesend temps only just dropped below 20c at nearly 00.30! Nor far off the average September day temp! The map is realistic to me feels humid!

Could really feel the difference driving from the outskirts of SE London back to Gravesend a good 2-3c hotter in the former that bit more inland my thermometer says it briefly touched 31c in Gravesend though cant have been for long my car thermometer was 3c less as I drove between Greenhithe and my place only 3.5-4 miles away!

Remember it well my younger brothers 15th Birthday Saw Tottenham beat Arsenal at the Lane wearing shorts in October!!! Let's see what the longer range models start conjuring up for now I wait the Navgem 30+ and GFS with interest

Most likely lol! Such a nice breeze 27c and 28c in Dartford my town of birth where I am today, slightly more inland just about comfortably warm seems strange seeing temps in likes of rural Somerset 3-4c hotter. Which model are we backing for the correct temps this time? GFS seems to have been good this summer better than ECM

About time someone took the stifling heat from my little microclimate heat bubble it.was actually cooler today then yesterday with a lovely Easterly breeze blowing up the Thames we only made 27c which with a breeze was bearable it will be interesting to monitor the rest of this heatwave given the wind direction helps knock a few degrees off the temp this side of London. I'm confident my weather station is pretty accurate also which if that's the case we hold the unofficial highest ever temp it got to 40.6c here on 19th July. #Bringbackgravesendbroadness!

You can blame me whenever I've had Annual leave this summer and had a staycation its been perfectly hot and sunny not a drop of rain. A week in June which saw an unusual 32c in Devon! and 3 weeks at home in the SE with the mega record breaking heat week. That late August wet period you mentuon I'm flying out to Menorca before it . So no doubt I'll come back and you'd all have had some welcome rainfall as per GFS run and it's ensembles. But it will be back to heat the way this summers gone for me

I'm fearful for what this week holds in store I wouldn't want to be a fireman this week that's for sure

Although it's all down to personal interpretation I guess we're not talking 40c this time and the west usually has probably twice as much rain as East Anglia and the SE so many may welcome it there.

Anyone else glad that this latest heat burst features a flow with some sort of Easterly vector? The temp shot up quickly here in Gravesend making 30c an hour aagounder light variable winds but have since dropped now the wind elements come to the rescue. For a change those further west should see the highest temps this week which is fine by me-, touching the low 30s for a few days will be more than enough here atleast there will be a lovely breeze in my east facing first floor sweatfest of an apartment!

Apologies, I actually meant to put this in the summer chat thread so feel free to move accordingly mods. Aside from that there's also no model chat in your answer either that seems purely out for likes which is certainly showing evidence of lacking scientific quality information!

And yet somebody thought we wouldnt see 35/36c again this summer an outrageous claim by knowledgeable respected poster to make for so close to the hottest period if the year

Now this is more like it! Perfect outdoor working temps we hit 20c not long after 11am and warm ever since -25c now

You're not wrong! A first lovely refreshing morning here after the sweatfest of the past.... weeks/months. And look whats in store for next week.. May be on for a record amount of 30+days this year! Back to high heat and humidity like where my old man's from-

Yet another pretty hot day here in Gravesend, Kent again warmer than the weather forecasts will have us know! Temps didn't drop below 20c last night here and its not fat off of 30c albeit less humid now! Both car and home thermometer. I always know these are never more than 1c wrong, previous cars I've had overestimated temps by 1-2c as most seem to. When the local forecasts go for frosts and +1c or +2c in winter for example I know we're good here to avoid em (too mild) I always add on atleast 1.5-2c to what forecasts showed and BBC had 25c in London, and 26c in Kent with possible 27c for usual hotpots such as here! So 29c is spot on!

Up to 32c for all of about a minute lets see if it goes back up again?! One of those late summer set ups where Gravesend Broadness was always atleast a degree hotter than any other station given netweathers showing 2 seaside resorts along the outer Thames as top current temp locations and they are usually not as hot as here being surrounded more by the sea, and have less of a foehn effect too but of course the official max will go down today as less than this!

Currently in the low 30s here though thankfully due to the skies clearing a few hours ago the high humidity seems to have dropped considerably