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Snowmadsam

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    Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I thought I would a little post to help out newer members :)

     

    The main difficulty is the dramatic contrasts in the models, a good example is this mornings GFS 0z compared to the 6z. The operational runs are widely contrasting with their outcomes (one run being mild and the other being cold). The GFS ensembles also don't give us a clear picture either due to the spread amongst them between the colder conditions and milder conditions. This flip-flopping way the models are running is usually a tell-tale sign that the pattern is set to change, but to what nature is NOT at all pinned down as of yet.

     

    Now, what is so useful for us is the use of the ECMWF model, this model DOES have credibility in terms of reliability, but it does also have its hindrances as well such as being firm on the selection of charts it has generated and does not have a sudden change of heart with weather patterns, it prefers to backdown slowly. What is interesting today from the 0z run of the ECMWF was that it's operational run (which is the run that can be seen on Netweather) was the mildist set of the whole ECM ensemble. The ECM ensemble itself tended to go for a cooler pattern, but it was very difficult to tell because of this flip-floping pattern that models are churning out.

     

    I'm not sure how many of you watch Gavin Partridge's videos, but he explains the whole process in a very visual, engaging and informative way. He also spoke about seasonal model output today and compared 2 seasonal models for a month ahead forecast - the Japanese model (JMA) and the CFS (American model), both had a colder signal to them which may suggest a higher degree in confidence in colder conditions occuring. But this is in no way or form a done deal.

     

    Stay Tuned to the models folks! There's a lot coming up! (It's almost like a soap!)

    • Like 12

    Wales - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    So I thought as a liitle region exclusive if you will, that I would help some of those newer members understand why we are having such difficulty in pinning things down post Christmas! (Please prepare your-selves folks!!)

     

    The main difficulty is the dramatic contrasts in the models, a good example is this mornings GFS 0z compared to the 6z. The operational runs are widely contrasting with their outcomes (one run being mild and the other being cold). The GFS ensembles also don't give us a clear picture either due to the spread amongst them between the colder conditions and milder conditions. This flip-flopping way the models are running is usually a tell-tale sign that the pattern is set to change, but to what nature is NOT at all pinned down as of yet.

     

    Now, what is so useful for us is the use of the ECMWF model, this model DOES have credibility in terms of reliability, but it does also have its hindrances as well such as being firm on the selection of charts it has generated and does not have a sudden change of heart with weather patterns, it prefers to backdown slowly. What is interesting today from the 0z run of the ECMWF was that it's operational run (which is the run that can be seen on Netweather) was the mildist set of the whole ECM ensemble. The ECM ensemble itself tended to go for a cooler pattern, but it was very difficult to tell because of this flip-floping pattern that models are churning out.

     

    I'm not sure how many of you watch Gavin Partridge's videos, but he explains the whole process in a very visual, engaging and informative way. He also spoke about seasonal model output today and compared 2 seasonal models for a month ahead forecast - the Japanese model (JMA) and the CFS (American model), both had a colder signal to them which may suggest a higher degree in confidence in colder conditions occuring. But this is in no way or form a done deal.

     

    Stay Tuned to the models folks! There's a lot coming up! (It's almost like a soap!)

    • Like 4

    Do genes make you gay?

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    It's hard to, despite the rantings of various puritanical right-wingers, that gayness can be attributed to anything other than genetics, knocker. Or am I mad?

     

    Can we not call it "gayness" it's homosexuality. Sorry it bothers me!! haha!!

     

    I don't think its genetic at all, surely we shouldn't be studying people to find out what causes homosexuality etc. It seems immoral to me.

    Weather Qualification coming for people hopeful in weather forecasting!

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    This is coming from the Royal Meteorological Society. 

     

    "RMet is a professional qualification awarded by the Royal Meteorological Society for members pursuing a career in meteorology, or working in a role supporting meteorological services. To be considered for accreditation as a RMet, candidates must have achieved (or be able to demonstrate) the requirements set out in the document below.

    The extent to which a candidate satisfies the requirements is based on evidence from a candidate’s self-assessment, referees’ reports and the interview panel." - Royal Meteorological Society http://www.rmets.org/our-activities/professional-accreditation/registered-meteorologist-rmet

    There will be more information in late January!! Keep your eyes peeled!!!

    Sam 

    • Like 2

    Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    EC32 model not offering much for December

     

    @MattHugo81 

     

    EC32 has had its upgrade, but provides not much insight into Dec with a particularly 'weak' signal for any one weather type. Any ones guess.

     

    With all these stupid headlines in the Express about winter you can just see this one coming in average or above today we have winter lasting till May!

     

    I don't think offering much is the correct termilogy to use...you could give the wrong impression..most people on here are cold fans.

     

    I think the word to say is that that there no clear signal as per matt hugo's tweet.

     

    JMA is interesting...

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I'm not that bothered about getting snow at the moment there's far more exciting things happening (Dr. Who, Christmas, new year etc.). Yes the models look bad from a cold POV (point of view), but then again do we really want a snowfest now? With the ground so warm? I don't thats for sure.

     

    Lets all take a chill pill (see I can be down with da beatzzz innit lol!) and relax. I know its so irriatating but we will get there. Slowly.

     

    Lets see what happens overnight and into the morning :)

    • Like 4

    Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->

    in Regional

    Posted

     yep sorry - just corrected it - trying to do too many things at once!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol

     

     

    definite upgrade for wintry/snow potential for WALES for wednesday/thursday now as the low trundles down from the north a little bit later!

     

    nae update to follow shortly

     

    Looks like a dangler for Sam with this update from the nae

     

    Posted Image

     

    Thats too far east haha...never happy xD

     

    Put a bet on with mum today that she will see snow see disagrees....£10 is mine hehe :D

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    These charts are awful. That's it winters over. I was only going to believe in the GFS anyway....

     

    (Sarcasm)

     

    Let's just keep our toys in the pram and wait to see what the ECM has to say. If your that desperate for some cold l assume you all have a freezer put you hand in there for a while and you can easily recreate a colder part of the world :D

     

    Simple :D

    • Like 2
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