Snowmadsam
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Posts posted by Snowmadsam
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How confident is everybody for this coming Sunday night into Monday for the snow starved South?
Wait and see, the dividing line for rain-snow can be VERY thin in these setups
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As these Northerlys are low pressure areas at the moment it's important that we keep an eye on any little sneaky lows (they are very sneaky!) they may increase shower activity
- just keep an eye out over the w/e -
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Remember it is VERY difficult with these Northerly scenarios, it won't take much for small disturbances to turn up increasing shower activity
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Confidence is still medium on cold spell, thats why Meto hasn't issued warnings yet. As always dividing line is the key issue between deciding to issue a warning for rain/snow.
Details still sketchy!
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We still need to be EXTREMELY cautious with how this low enters, back-edge snow possible but little idea until tomorrow when hi-res models come into range.........
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When is the colder air coming in proper seems rain across most of the region totally lost about this cold spell
It's on the way
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Models are still slipping I see.
Tonights precipitation in the Wales and West, appears to be moving slower than forecast, sleet/snow also occurring in places according to radar
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front seems to be moving slower than forecast, NEVER a bad thing, better than quicker, allows colder air to come in as we get later to the night
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Are you in Cardiff mate?
Nope, still home aha
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that rain is SLOWY turning to sleet/snow now, temp here is 1.0
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Keeping an eye on the GFS! Further west is always best for Wales, as it means we don't get the warm sector
Let's see what the 12z's say!!!
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Potential Dangler midweek Sam if only its cold enough..
Fingers crossed that Low is further West then......
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With your height would not rule out snow in the next week.
Feels like a March or April showers set up at present, chilly but warmth in the sun now.
From this and as per Spring I would expect further surprise snowfalls in these marginal synpotics, with obviously hills doing the best. Not sure that any snow if it manages to settle below 250m will hang aroung so long, but nice where you get it, as was the one here earlier in the week
I'm also being prepared for surprise snowfalls
I'm trying to stay home this week and not go back to Cardiff!!! Snow days are always best at home -
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Potential for Tuesday
Still too early to be looking at the line of rain and snow. Wintry showers around today
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The fly in the ointment is still showing on some of the charts:
Won't get anything here whilst that remains.
Uppers are NOT everything, if you have dewpoints at or below 0 snow can fall even at -1 850's and there is evaporative cooling as well....
Best go and see how the ECM went
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So the para isn't verifying ahead of the old Gfs !
Still in third despite the increased resolution.
There is no parallel version of my GFS now, the Parallel is the operational, so opinions and bias has to be reset
Looking interesting tonight, that rain/snow barrier is still too far way to look at.
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Any chance of posting some precipitation charts Andy?
No point at this stage, it's way to far out to even draw a rough line between rain/snow
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To be deep enough to produce strong winds, you'd certainly see rain that far south.
You guys in the south want a shallow, flabby and slow moving low.
Correct, too deep and your warm sector gets wider...IF the GFS 12z holds some features further West it would benefit most parts of the UK as the warm sector would not pose as much of a threat.
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I think quite a few places above 100m will see some snow this evening/overnight.
I do agree with this, not just cause I'm 100m up! but because of the temperatures that are being recorded are already lower than predicted....
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frequent hail showers here, seems to be cooling the temperatures rapidly as the cold air comes in!
Here it comes folks!!!
Regarding the warm sector over the weekend, if we can get the front to occlude early enough or make the system go further east it will increase the chance of snow
- but more on that later - details still v.sketchy! -
I wouldn't agree with that analysis in complete and what he did say was anywhere south of the m4 when it comes to frontal snow. But then there's strong model agreement on a cold week ahead and GFS and UKMO have many snow opportunities chucked in (as always with snow its far to early to forecast) but it looks like most places (As it currently stands) should see snow through tuesday/wednesday next week, this will definetly change but the trend is colder and its not boring cold either. As always with frontal systems from the west and lows it all depends on their source, how much mild air is mixed in and how far they track.
But if you took the models as gospel they are ready snowfest at the moment and I would say unless you lived on Skomer you are very likely to see snow next week(but then I would defy what I've just said in that, its far to early to say).
Meanwhile how about some wintry potential in the next 48hrs and over the weekend, methinks we will see some falling snow tomorrow again but very little settling.
Snow is always a surprise event! Mr.Murr does have experience yes, but the dividing line between rain and snow is always problematic! One of the reasons why this is difficult is because of the warm sea to the west (Irish sea) but when things are the correct side of marginal, snow can become even heavier than forecast due to the Irish sea acting as a convergence zone. Upper air temperatures are not everything when it comes to snow, they are extremely useful for snow, but as what happened here yesterday evaporative cooling can turn rain to snow quickly! The way I use to describe evaporative cooling is like whipping cream. It changes all of a sudden.
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Any chance of snow next week? Hope there is after last nights rubbish.
It's far too soon to look ahead past friday Jay. Everything is so sketchy.
If you read the netweather guides you should be able to answer your own questions
that's how I learnt!!!Gusts going to 45-55mph here!!
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Ahh....fatal error!.....don't look at the precip charts post T48...........
.....or you'll go from
to this
deprssion.jpgback to this
happy-face-72dpi1.jpgreverting quickly to this
deprssion.jpgand ending up permanently like this
stock-photo-16181215-crazy-man-in-straight-jacket-with-crossed-eyes.jpgWELCOME TO THE MAD HOUSE!!!
On a more sane note, don't look too far ahead folks!!! I'm preparing myself for the all new GFS (ooooo!!!)
Still all to play for, the uncertainty really highlighted by control runs of the GEFS and GFS!!
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ECM would be a total snow fest for large swathes of England barring the EXTREME SE of the UK.....
Also GFS p still singing the easterly
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2015011312/gfsnh-0-156.png?12
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland DO also exist as well....with most seeing snow under that particular scenario
Devil is as always in the detail, but I'm content with the current situation lets just see how it develops/what it develops too
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- just keep an eye out over the w/e 
Wales - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
It's as if the ground is saying snow on me, ground bone dry now (haven't seen it like that for a while), gonna do a quick cloud check then lamp-post check