[Model output discussion - mid January]

Just a reminder folks to contain yourselfs...remember ONE run. Gotta have that trend.

Just trying to keep the feet on the ground

[Model output discussion - mid January]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Explanations always help....;) 

Models are still back and forth with ideas or a cold(er) pattern. Much to be resolved.

[Model output discussion - mid January]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

FI - GFS 18z - down the pub - SNOWMAGGEDON

I think it's been more than down the pub. It's taken some highly illegal substances!!

It's gone on a mad one! That come down is gonna be nasty on the 0z.....

But still very interesting to watch, as many have thought. Feb seems to be the time to shine

[Model output discussion - mid January]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Leading to battle ground from the west what can possibly go wrong

North of the M4: 

South of the M4: 

The intrigue continues on todays runs with more interesting options on the table....

[Model output discussion - mid January]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The site I use is down is due to the US government shut down though It wouldn't make much difference with the fire which I wasn't aware of earlier this morning

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

 

 

With a congress passed deal, NOAA should be up again later today

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

storm 'Fionn' is now re-named storm 'Feeble'. i've had stronger farts!

 

But are they as smelly, or silent but deadly?

18z coming out, how many shots has it had?! Storm not looking as bad as it looked 5 days ago thank goodness

 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I don’t know whether to laugh or cry it would be hard getting out of that. Classic +NAO signature.

I wouldn't do either to be honest. Models are in a variety of ways. Everything needs to be taken with a pinch of salt and humor at the moment if you ask me, the ECM shows the amount of uncertainty by two polar opposite runs this morning and this evening

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Just now, Daniel* said:

GFS 12Z offers a transient widespread snow event late Saturday into Sunday.

Away from the Western parts of Wales, which is where I am! Showers here today have been intense but upper air temps too high! So it's been sleety! Not holding out for anything else now! If it were to stall however.....

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

2 hours ago, ajpoolshark said:

ah, cheers Sam.....I wasn't sure what you meant, and at that time of the morning, the best I can muster is 3 question marks....lol

Don't worry! I was only awake because the dog was barking, and thought I may as well check! 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Surely the ECM just over amplifying the azores high? How many ECM Easterlies in the last 5 years have actually happened when shown at 168+. 

Don't get sucked in.

Bearing in mind we don't know how the next 48 hours will turn out, I'm not taking anything for granted atm. It is all just for fun, lets remember that

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

4 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

???

Showing the tension AJ! 

Could be what ecm ens have been saying for while...are we going to be lead up a garden path again?

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

*inhales deeply*

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Looking at the ecm mean and it looks like a huge push from the east between days 9 and 10. I think there will be many very cold runs post day 10  showing on the debilt ens tonight. 

I'm not even calling tomorrow yet! Here in the West of Wales! Let's wait and see! Imagine if it got into the op....

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

So if i go by the icon  i need to keep an eye on my roof.  but the GFS says not enough to fly a kite.  dont you just love it.

Who's gonna say it....MORE RUNS NEEDED

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Storm substantially weaker on the 12z, more of a 'kink'

 - 48h

 - 54h

 - 60h

Interesting developments....

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Here we go, a ridge in FI! Oh no, here we go again!! Oh dear me! 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Not good enough. Same as saying a ten quid win on the lottery will change your life. 

Got me out of my student overdraft  

I still think things could happen before thursday, if not. I'm not worried. Always later on, or feb. If you want snow badly buy a snow machine.

Plenty of time of adjustments as models edge closer yes to this colder spell. But small things may help!

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

I’m not calling this now or next week, I’ll call it at the time. The runner is the issue, we have to see where it goes. That’s it in a nutshell I think. 

Lets see what ECM says, you never know this can still turn around

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Ah the Shakespearean tragedy of model watching! I was wondering when it was going to fall apart. If it’s too good to be true - it probably is!

Try and keep the faith folks! But remember the models are a guide as to what MAY happen. The only thing that will happen will be decided by the weather

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Just finished my 1-9 shift and well what a stonker and then, what a stinker. The variability of the GFS alone shows it hasn’t really got a handle on the specifics of the pattern further ahead than Monday imo.

Bed is calling me! I may do an interesting post tomorrow, with some colourful charts!

How exciting!

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Just now, MidnightSnow said:

I know it's clutching at straws... but any chance that black hole will suck up the M4?

Only the north side of it I’m afraid  

Much to be watching, pleased I have work today so won’t be as active! But the model runs show the variability of the storm system and what happens next!

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

5 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

OMG!  Black hole heads for Wales!

   

Even after a downgrade, the GFS 06Z still predicts a nasty storm with wind gusts over 80 mph.  Surely even the most ardent storm fan would not wish for these conditions over the UK - almost certain structural damage and injuries - or worse - would result.

As a South West Walier, this storm really does need to shift further south. It does concern me with these gusts.

This really is red warning territory we are getting into wind wise. 

If the system does not deepen so much I would expect yellow/amber warnings in the snow line areas

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Just now, andymusic said:

wales and the midlands gets pasted again from the low

Like another 50 miles? If that could happen, that would be great!

More IMBYness but why not? I knew I should have given the 18z that extra shot of tequila! 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

4 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

Accidents can be good...

Or bad, as my parents found out the hard way....

I will still say, surprises can happen

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No clearance of the trough on the GFS 12hrs run with a hangback of low heights nw wards.

Its flatter upstream and only saves itself because the Russian high comes to its aid. Whilst it still delivers because it keeps those lows weak as they approach the UK and they manage to slide it looks like a more complicated and messier outcome with more that can go wrong.

The UKMO is cleaner upstream and has that high ahead of the Canadian low.

I'd much rather this limpet trough could clear as that really increases the chances to lock the cold in and the GFS just looks like an accident waiting to happen.

 

Agreed. As cliche as this sounds, I'm going to hold fire and see what the ECM does say. I may also take a break from model watching