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Snowmadsam

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Posts posted by Snowmadsam

    Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The FI outcomes just show how uncertain the weather is for the next month or so let alone next few days in terms of “will it snow in my backyard??!!?!??!??!”

    This winter is likely to throw up some surprises based on looking at model output over this past year. It could be amazing....it could be rubbish...AGAIN

    The difference in just the GFS 6 and 12z provides the scale of the uncertainty of the synoptic pattern 

    • Like 3

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, andymusic said:

    he was literally smiling like a Cheshire cat - he must practice in the mirror at home in Barry - to make sure he looks good on the tele - but that's not what he's there for and the week before this - and i'm sure he was following the gfs and ecm - or maybe he just delivers the news and doesn't even look at the models - I just don't get why he laid back on this - people's lives are at risk - idiot - I find him arrogant and egotistical when I've tried to converse with him on twitter in the past too, head stuck up his own ******* comes to mind - but his 1st responsibility should be to the people of wales to keep them safe - AND HE PLAINLY DID NOT DO THAT - SO HE SHOULD BE SACKED END OF

    Sorry Andy, but you come on here when it gets wintry. Not all year round. Weather forecasts are a daily thing, if you were a weather man we wouldn’t hear any weather for most of the year.

    Also, JayinCardiff I can confirm it snowed for you. You may have some

    • Like 2

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, Seasonal weather required said:

    Hello Wales - it’s me Emma .

    Where is Andy musics house ?

    And whats all this nonsense about a dry patch ?

    Im very generous as you can see , have you all been good boys and girls ?

     

    ...

    56C7666B-80D4-4E36-8FDC-DA4E03102FFC.png

    Heyyyy Emma,

    I’m ok thanks for the offer but I’d prefer a few inches rather than just being wet....

    band on the way, still watching for surprises...shattered this week

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I have never seen so many snow memes....so naturally as youth I feel like I should take part ;)

     

    Image result for snow memes

    An amazing ECM. I need to sit down for a bit. Won't need to do ice baths after the gym now. I can just run outside into -14 uppers! Perfection!

    No but seriously, a stalling low, heavy snow? This is dangerous weather. I will not be surprised to see a red warning appear sometime this week.

    • Like 5

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, ajpoolshark said:

    I think I'm becoming a tad desensitized to the outputs now.....let's look at the 12z ECM.......hmm, lots of snow forecast for next week?....how much?.....12 inches?....just 12 inches?......T850's only -14C?.......boring!.........change the record....seen it all before :80:

    Rubbish isn't it. I was hoping for -16C uppers. A rubbish ECM all round.

    Still only one run ;)

    Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

    In the nicest possible way, I think a few members need to get a life.......or a girlfriend or something.....open your stuffy dark bedrooms and let some fresh air in....lol.......Models are all over the place, this is what happens when you get a potential pattern change, i.e model volatility!......all one has to do is to go back 10 days or so and the potential for much colder weather is much better now than it was then......take the model runs for the past few days...yes, there has been volatility, but the general theme is for colder weather with an easterly component and I'll quite happily bet a few quid that that's what the UK will end up with eventually......So let's have a bit of sanity prevailing and no more "waaaa..waaaa, it's not showing -50C easterlies!....it's not fair!.....my life is over" nonsense!....cheers all :drinks:

    Been looking for a man for while now AJ and no luck as of yet! Volatile is how I’d sum up relationships let alone weather models!

    This SSW was always going to cause the models to go topsy turvey inside out! If people took the runs seriously are they are now, god knows how they’d cope watching Eastenders! 

    The 8-10 day period is by no means settled yet! Plenty more twists in the tale to come over the next few days I feel!

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I’m also biding my time and waiting until the warming is actually been and gone before actively looking for signs on charts as we don’t know the turn around time of the warming (qtr).

    Models may shift patterns rapidly after warming takes place - for newbies to know. Take anything +144 (7 days) onwards with the biggest pinch of salt!

    Nice surprise in Pembs this morning with big flakes falling out the sky!

    Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

    144 cold getting well mixed out via ec-12z!!!!

    ECM0-144 (4).gif

    It wasn’t worth getting hyped up for anyway, I know it’s a pain. But it is always best to be prepared for issues like this to occur. 

    The weather for this week will still be cold regardless! Let’s focus on that and the possible SSW. I’ll await the 18z and 0z suites with interest.

    But take everything post Sunday with a pinch of salt if I were you. Surprises will appear yes.

    • Thanks 1
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