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Snowmadsam

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Posts posted by Snowmadsam

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

    Have a think about that. If the dew point was significantly below zero there would be no frost (dew) forming until that temperature was reached. Current dew point in London is around -1C hence the reason you are seeing dew / frost. If it were much lower there would be no frost visible as the air would still be able to hold the moisture. 

    I believe -1c is below freezing 😉

    But insightful never the less

    thank you!

    EC is looking better than this morning 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    This isn’t over yet IMO.

    UKMO quicker with the initial low allowing a small ridge ahead of the second/spoiler low. 

    This keeps the spoiler low out west keeping the cold in place. 

    With the NH profile, it kinda feels like dec 2010, when all roads led to cold, even when the Ops and sometimes then ens were scouting out a milder option. 
     

    Great model watching 🙂
     

     

    Agreed. Getting a very big sense that this is no where near resolved.

    Even this evening in central London there was frost forming on the ground at 4pm. Dew points are certainly below freezing

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Interesting graphics on latest bbc forecast - best case scenario really with a spell of snow in the south later next week then a return to cold!! 🧐
    Thurs through to Sat below 

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    I wouldn't take these graphics so seriously. Especially when showing SLP charts as resolution is lower. Precipitation is there as a guide on not a guarantee. Will very depend how conditions are on the ground.

    ECM op looked tasty didn't it, however!!

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    i think they are complete rubbish anyway, Nick L used to post the correct data for the corresponding timeframe, and id guess on average they used to read a 5th to a 10th of those snow charts, in the run up to 10th Dec 2017, it showed 18 inches for Manchester City Centre, and its done similar many times, there has only been 6 inches here twice since 78-9 - it wouldn't surprise me if there has never been 18 inches here recorded even in the LIA.

    Agreed. I don't read them anymore either. Usually in these cases I close my blinds and wait and see what's on the ground. Saves the disappointment. All weather models are indicators, they aren't right or wrong they indicate potential. Usually when things verify there's always a strong suggestion that the potential has been matched. But I always read them as to what COULD happen as opposed to what WILL happen. That's why we have things like Ensembles, Control runs etc etc. 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowmadsam

    There is a huge lack of cross model agreement at the moment past that Azores low

    We do need to keep in mind that:

    1.) we are transitioning into a weather pattern that we know what models are inexperienced with

    2.) a tropical storm/disturbance forming in December is not at all that common.

    3.) this is a tropospheric rare event and not a stratospheric warming event

    They’re always were going to be wobbles and I expect these to continue for a small while yet.

    at this juncture, you’ve got more chance of predicting two weeks lottery numbers correct 

     

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    The only thing is those snow charts - how many times have i seen one with nearly the whole country with lying snow - loads - how many times has it actually happened - probably a handful in my life - the last around the turn of decade from the naughties into the 1ties.

    That’s why I ignore them and just look at the Synoptics. Saves the panic!

    18z is looking nooiiiccceeeee for cold fans 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, seb said:

    Agreed. However, we all know that once the cold is properly established in the UK surprise snow features pop up at short notice. One of the few occasions where our geographical location is an advantage.

    @WINTRY WALES ^ this 

    Once cold is embedded there’s usually ample opportunity for surprises. Features tend to be small so medium res models can’t pick them up 

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 hours ago, MattH said:

    Simply this...

    This place never changes, unfortunately, despite some really great input from pro's and amatuers alike. It's really off putting, especially to those who want to contribute and learn.

    Cheers.

    I do agree with this. People are giving their interpretations. People can misinterpret but it doesn’t mean they should be slated.

    Ultimately, the weather will do what the weather will do.

    Thing that are nailed on. It’s going to be colder for a significant period of time. There’s cross-model agreement on that. 
     

    The unknowns are on the grounds of an extended pattern and form of precipitation if any occurs and where it will be under a cold pattern. 
     

    If you are viewing run on run and find yourself getting stressed, step back for a few hours or get a refreshment. Moderation is always a useful mechanism.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    It will be interesting to see how the very warm sea temps modify the flow. You would imagine the warm seas and cold temps will only enhance the shower activity. To get this type of weather so early in the season really is special, perhaps some younger folk don't realise the extremity of what could develop!

    agreed, could easily see very shallow areas of low pressure develop in such a flow, plenty of convergence lines too. Good luck to forecasters doing FAX charts with these synoptics. 

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Ok, I've been here 10 years - on and off and lurking. 

    But I haven't seen these patterns for a very good while. Especially as what @Singularity has posted! Gosh!

    14 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Just tried isolating runs of days since Jan 1958 (start of records) with sustained high AAM in Nov (as we've seen lately) & the result was... interesting. 

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    I'm now waiting to see what's produced for Dec.

    A less organised low to our southwest on the 12z GFS compared to 06z as of Sunday. There's also less of a break being maintained in the high pressure to our west.

    Both should mean less northward advance of milder air across the Low Countries going forward.

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    These sorts of patterns do always take TIME to establish but as others have said on here today, it's much less riskier than a SSW (Severe Stratospheric Warming) event. 

    Personally, I'm only looking at 0z and 12z runs at the moment as I don't wish to get hung up on every run! But I may pop in for the 18z if this pattern is established..... MAYBE....

    I'm still going to await the EC ops and Ens however whilst this pattern really gets established.

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

    Ar, I’m so angry with the models this morning. I mean why couldn’t the developing North-Easterly for next week on the GFS be very very very very slightly stronger. The 850 hPa temperatures are 0.01% too warm and the blocking to the North of the UK could do being 0.0001% stronger. And seriously, that 10 day ECMWF ensemble mean is a joke. Why couldn’t that mean Low to the South of the UK just be 1 mile further East? Is making me feel so negative

    Urch don’t. The shape of the isobars annoys be. Why can’t they be MORE circular!

    ITS A WRITEOFF HONESTLY!!

    Nah, just on a serious note. Personally I’d take everything from +144 with a huge pinch of salt. NWP is not used to dealing with pattern changes like this one easily. 
     

    Any pattern change to cold was always going to take a significant period of time because of how warm it’s been throughout the year 

    • Like 1
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