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Snowmadsam

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    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Morning all, GFS ends with winter dream charts which looks a reasonable outcome to me. However, in the medium term there seems a variance to the flow profile at 144t between the UK/ECM run and the GFS. The chart below shows a more westerly flow at that stage . ThIs 500mb pressure /temp profile chart from UKMO at 144t highlights a tightening pressure and upper air temperature gradient to the southwest and what looks like a wave formation to develop. So not that straight forward to cold into Southern Britain as the south /SW  could yet be in line for some very stormy weather by the end of next week. Longer term looks cold for all with snow in favoured locations as Polar Continent air mixes in with the unstable Pm flow. Looks very interesting weather next week that should keep many cold fans interested in developments. Will get back this afternoon with a report from our Portal weather Service providers, specifics regarding UK next week.

    C

    U144-21UK.gif

    Yes this does concern me, could be a rain event on that day looking at upper air temperatures. Someone feel free to correct me?

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowmadsam

    12 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

    anyone who' moaning about the current models and the wintry offerings showing in the latest charts either has an igloo in the north pole or possibly hasn' seen a snow flake so far this winter 

    hoping the 12z upgrades 

    Cursed it now, never ever say that ??!

    Models will all have variability, before the 12z’s roll out a reminder to try and keep cool. We are all excited but let’s not get carried away :)

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    There is a reason NWS is stating NW Britain, and this may shock you...... He basically stating what the models show, its almost as if hes actually using this thread for its intended purpose. 

    I agree, but next week is still ages away, no point in making snow predictions yet. Remember this is a COLD ZONAL flow. Surprises could be ANYWHERE. The weather will do what the weather will do ;) 

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Ooz p-stamps 500 geo-pot snaps!..

    Some stark, notable's...

    All with waa/atlantic-and scandi' developing heights...illustration of a very potent pm incursion and a south diving jet!..

    Later on we can see 'again' the want of heights transfer via greenland and scandinavian want-of link.

    Looks very likely we are walking into a real slot of some worthy winter weather as of monday next week, with things setting up for greater possibilities thereafter!!!

     

     

    EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_216.jpg

    EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_192.jpg

    Fascinating to see that ALL ensemble members keep us on the cold side of the jet. One to bank for sure!

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Tiny differences will make all the difference at this point, it was clearly further North when I posted and it clearly is at 120 still, when you are in an already marginal situation (particularly those midlands southwards), the last thing you want is it moving northwards, plus the trough isn't elongating quite as much as on the 12z.

    The only time we will know it’s true position is when it happens. Models are a SIMULATION, not a reality. They are to guide, not give an answer 

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowmadsam

    With this cold zonal flow due to arrive next week northern AND Western areas should be prepared for some surprises as has often happened in this flow.

    I do expect some streamer events to occur in the week, maybe a Cheshire gap and a possible dangler (but that maybe hard to get going). 

    Also take note of evaporative cooling, the winds around this system are cold yes, but the faster they flow the more readily precipitation may turn to snow and a warm Irish Sea will also potentially play a part in igniting some convective precipitation. There is no point in predicting exact timings as of yet. I will be doing something of a more in-depth post later this weekend. Model output in the medium is also looking interesting as does the potential SSW in the longer term. A lot to be getting our teeth into. 

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Wow, goodness me. It’s 11pm. Why on earth are we all screaming and shouting at each other. Come on guys, let’s chill. If models are really frustrating you then simply press that button on your device to put it into sleep mode and recharge the batteries. 

    An interesting 18z tonight, has it been to the pub or is it on dry January? But it has been nice to see something different for a change. Goes in line with what teleconnection posters on here have been saying. 

    I’m off to rest me eyes.

    Things like this can get frustrating I understand but if you are that desperate for snow. You can always buy a snow machine or move. Or even put your head in the freezer to see what -20 feels like (but not for long otherwise you will most likely die! - 5 seconds at most!) 

     

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    GFS continues its nudge west

    84 sees -4s over the UK developing in situ

    However more important than that the sustained SE flow induces enough surface cold to have the front as snow as it hits Scotland...

    get a bit more SE flow = snow further south...

    12z V 18z

    153ABB18-E364-4280-A456-615B263C18EB.thumb.png.dca3c54ad7a3b17104fae4990c7e7c6c.png7E2577F4-DF7B-427E-9604-08C4DDABDBDA.thumb.png.15bd4ffd1be65d3100fc3ed3ebab8e77.png

    also track evolving with every run... edging to UKMO / JMA blend

    29% @Steve Murr living dangerously, I'm monitoring the SSW now. That maybe the only constant thing this winter. That or all the rain....models are still flip flopping and I need a drink. It's only tuesday!!

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowmadsam

    4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

    Uppers of between -7  in the north to -4 in the south east  it looks like again on this run midlands north could see some of the wintry stuff.  Seems to be a recurring pattern this winter  we shall see 

    I'm just gonna put it in my signature now, you do not need uppers of -5 or below for snow, dew points are essential. ECM keeping the Easterly flame alive for a time.....

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