Snowmadsam
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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The FI outcomes just show how uncertain the weather is for the next month or so let alone next few days in terms of “will it snow in my backyard??!!?!??!??!” This winter is likely to throw up some surprises based on looking at model output over this past year. It could be amazing....it could be rubbish...AGAIN The difference in just the GFS 6 and 12z provides the scale of the uncertainty of the synoptic pattern -
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
'ello! Been lurking for about a week! This is a blocked pattern coming up. This week was never gonna deliver a snow fest when it comes to this low. Relax, its still November. Things take time. The pattern is much more favourable than any I've seen for a good while. Long way to go! -
Rain. You may have some rain outside.
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Sorry Andy, but you come on here when it gets wintry. Not all year round. Weather forecasts are a daily thing, if you were a weather man we wouldn’t hear any weather for most of the year. Also, JayinCardiff I can confirm it snowed for you. You may have some
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Heyyyy Emma, I’m ok thanks for the offer but I’d prefer a few inches rather than just being wet.... band on the way, still watching for surprises...shattered this week
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Sliding eastwards is better, it gives more opportunities. But as always expect last minute changes
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I have never seen so many snow memes....so naturally as youth I feel like I should take part An amazing ECM. I need to sit down for a bit. Won't need to do ice baths after the gym now. I can just run outside into -14 uppers! Perfection! No but seriously, a stalling low, heavy snow? This is dangerous weather. I will not be surprised to see a red warning appear sometime this week. -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Rubbish isn't it. I was hoping for -16C uppers. A rubbish ECM all round. Still only one run -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You could always do a one off @Nick L looking VERY cold -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Even western areas could get showers out of the increasing scenario next week...lots to be watching -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And now on BBC One, it’s time for an unmissable ECMenders! DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUFF DUF DUFF DUFF I am so impressed by the remarkable accuracy of the GFS runs at the moment! I’m just interested to see what sways it! -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It finally seems like we are getting a form of stability now with something special being seen across models. I am still expecting the tail end of Feb to be the most likely time for the evolutions that the 6z and last nights ECM 12z to actually come off.... -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Been looking for a man for while now AJ and no luck as of yet! Volatile is how I’d sum up relationships let alone weather models! This SSW was always going to cause the models to go topsy turvey inside out! If people took the runs seriously are they are now, god knows how they’d cope watching Eastenders! The 8-10 day period is by no means settled yet! Plenty more twists in the tale to come over the next few days I feel! -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Oh that’s naughty, stop that! Too early for such arousal! I knew it was a good idea to take time away from the models for a few days -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I shall leave that to your imagination... I’m still not sure at what stage however we will get cross model synoptic agreement, but I’m expecting it to be very close to day 5 -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’ve eaten too many sausages in my time.... ECM and GFS seem to be singing from the same sheet BROADLY in that it will get colder from a vqtr thanks to the upcoming SSW. It remains to be seen the location of blocking and snow etc. Watch this space I’d say -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m needing to sit down again on the 18z... its fascinating watching a SSW being modelling, and I suspect even more interesting seeing what develops from it. For inexperienced people like myself, this month will really build on knowledge. 18z is going to have another round by the looks of things... -
Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)
Snowmadsam replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I wasn’t a fan of the new graphics! Weatherscape did the job fine, to me Scotland looked too small and the motion looked too sickly. Theres all differences between a UK view and a regional view which means features on a micro scale won’t be seen nationally. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m also biding my time and waiting until the warming is actually been and gone before actively looking for signs on charts as we don’t know the turn around time of the warming (qtr). Models may shift patterns rapidly after warming takes place - for newbies to know. Take anything +144 (7 days) onwards with the biggest pinch of salt! Nice surprise in Pembs this morning with big flakes falling out the sky! -
Question answered for you Jay. it will snow in Cardiff
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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It wasn’t worth getting hyped up for anyway, I know it’s a pain. But it is always best to be prepared for issues like this to occur. The weather for this week will still be cold regardless! Let’s focus on that and the possible SSW. I’ll await the 18z and 0z suites with interest. But take everything post Sunday with a pinch of salt if I were you. Surprises will appear yes. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
TMI ??? GFS brings in a brief mild sector before cold north westerlies come back. SSW still signalled -
Model output discussion - mid January
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think I actually need to sit down. Holy guacamole! What is that 18z?! what is this?! WHAT IS LIFE?- 2,804 replies
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Model output discussion - mid January
Snowmadsam replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I know, but look what has happened before. I'm keeping my feet on the ground or I will start checking every model run again! haha!- 2,804 replies
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