Snowmadsam

It's as if the ground is saying snow on me, ground bone dry now (haven't seen it like that for a while), gonna do a quick cloud check then lamp-post check

Wait and see, the dividing line for rain-snow can be VERY thin in these setups

As these Northerlys are low pressure areas at the moment it's important that we keep an eye on any little sneaky lows (they are very sneaky!) they may increase shower activity - just keep an eye out over the w/e

Remember it is VERY difficult with these Northerly scenarios, it won't take much for small disturbances to turn up increasing shower activity

Confidence is still medium on cold spell, thats why Meto hasn't issued warnings yet. As always dividing line is the key issue between deciding to issue a warning for rain/snow. Details still sketchy!

We still need to be EXTREMELY cautious with how this low enters, back-edge snow possible but little idea until tomorrow when hi-res models come into range.........

It's on the way http://grab.by/DSVG

Models are still slipping I see. Tonights precipitation in the Wales and West, appears to be moving slower than forecast, sleet/snow also occurring in places according to radar

front seems to be moving slower than forecast, NEVER a bad thing, better than quicker, allows colder air to come in as we get later to the night

Nope, still home aha

that rain is SLOWY turning to sleet/snow now, temp here is 1.0

Keeping an eye on the GFS! Further west is always best for Wales, as it means we don't get the warm sector Let's see what the 12z's say!!!

Fingers crossed that Low is further West then......

I'm also being prepared for surprise snowfalls I'm trying to stay home this week and not go back to Cardiff!!! Snow days are always best at home

Still too early to be looking at the line of rain and snow. Wintry showers around today

Uppers are NOT everything, if you have dewpoints at or below 0 snow can fall even at -1 850's and there is evaporative cooling as well.... Best go and see how the ECM went

There is no parallel version of my GFS now, the Parallel is the operational, so opinions and bias has to be reset Looking interesting tonight, that rain/snow barrier is still too far way to look at.

No point at this stage, it's way to far out to even draw a rough line between rain/snow

Correct, too deep and your warm sector gets wider...IF the GFS 12z holds some features further West it would benefit most parts of the UK as the warm sector would not pose as much of a threat.

I do agree with this, not just cause I'm 100m up! but because of the temperatures that are being recorded are already lower than predicted....

frequent hail showers here, seems to be cooling the temperatures rapidly as the cold air comes in! Here it comes folks!!! Regarding the warm sector over the weekend, if we can get the front to occlude early enough or make the system go further east it will increase the chance of snow - but more on that later - details still v.sketchy!

Snow is always a surprise event! Mr.Murr does have experience yes, but the dividing line between rain and snow is always problematic! One of the reasons why this is difficult is because of the warm sea to the west (Irish sea) but when things are the correct side of marginal, snow can become even heavier than forecast due to the Irish sea acting as a convergence zone. Upper air temperatures are not everything when it comes to snow, they are extremely useful for snow, but as what happened here yesterday evaporative cooling can turn rain to snow quickly! The way I use to describe evaporative cooling is like whipping cream. It changes all of a sudden.

It's far too soon to look ahead past friday Jay. Everything is so sketchy. If you read the netweather guides you should be able to answer your own questions that's how I learnt!!! Gusts going to 45-55mph here!!

WELCOME TO THE MAD HOUSE!!! On a more sane note, don't look too far ahead folks!!! I'm preparing myself for the all new GFS (ooooo!!!) Still all to play for, the uncertainty really highlighted by control runs of the GEFS and GFS!!

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland DO also exist as well....with most seeing snow under that particular scenario Devil is as always in the detail, but I'm content with the current situation lets just see how it develops/what it develops too