Snowmadsam

Thundersnow in Login - last seen 10 years ago!!! BOOOM!!!

A small exclusive for you all https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCZSrMmhWsU&feature=youtu.be

Ground too wet here now - and temps to high...I await the snow showers with anticipation

Snowed here, a slushy covering if even that! More to come later

Very much still to play for, a live event no doubt, all depending on the position of the low..... Lots to watch folks

Boom clap the beat of thundersnow goes on and on on on on! GFS onboard with UKMO and ECM. Let's just hope the ship doesn't sink har har me harties!! ( I have gone posh pirate!!)

It still staggers me how we have yet to see a solution to this!! Very much going to be a live event I think....

I thought I would a little post to help out newer members The main difficulty is the dramatic contrasts in the models, a good example is this mornings GFS 0z compared to the 6z. The operational runs are widely contrasting with their outcomes (one run being mild and the other being cold). The GFS ensembles also don't give us a clear picture either due to the spread amongst them between the colder conditions and milder conditions. This flip-flopping way the models are running is usually a tell-tale sign that the pattern is set to change, but to what nature is NOT at all pinned down as of yet. Now, what is so useful for us is the use of the ECMWF model, this model DOES have credibility in terms of reliability, but it does also have its hindrances as well such as being firm on the selection of charts it has generated and does not have a sudden change of heart with weather patterns, it prefers to backdown slowly. What is interesting today from the 0z run of the ECMWF was that it's operational run (which is the run that can be seen on Netweather) was the mildist set of the whole ECM ensemble. The ECM ensemble itself tended to go for a cooler pattern, but it was very difficult to tell because of this flip-floping pattern that models are churning out. I'm not sure how many of you watch Gavin Partridge's videos, but he explains the whole process in a very visual, engaging and informative way. He also spoke about seasonal model output today and compared 2 seasonal models for a month ahead forecast - the Japanese model (JMA) and the CFS (American model), both had a colder signal to them which may suggest a higher degree in confidence in colder conditions occuring. But this is in no way or form a done deal. Stay Tuned to the models folks! There's a lot coming up! (It's almost like a soap!)

So I thought as a liitle region exclusive if you will, that I would help some of those newer members understand why we are having such difficulty in pinning things down post Christmas! (Please prepare your-selves folks!!) The main difficulty is the dramatic contrasts in the models, a good example is this mornings GFS 0z compared to the 6z. The operational runs are widely contrasting with their outcomes (one run being mild and the other being cold). The GFS ensembles also don't give us a clear picture either due to the spread amongst them between the colder conditions and milder conditions. This flip-flopping way the models are running is usually a tell-tale sign that the pattern is set to change, but to what nature is NOT at all pinned down as of yet. Now, what is so useful for us is the use of the ECMWF model, this model DOES have credibility in terms of reliability, but it does also have its hindrances as well such as being firm on the selection of charts it has generated and does not have a sudden change of heart with weather patterns, it prefers to backdown slowly. What is interesting today from the 0z run of the ECMWF was that it's operational run (which is the run that can be seen on Netweather) was the mildist set of the whole ECM ensemble. The ECM ensemble itself tended to go for a cooler pattern, but it was very difficult to tell because of this flip-floping pattern that models are churning out. I'm not sure how many of you watch Gavin Partridge's videos, but he explains the whole process in a very visual, engaging and informative way. He also spoke about seasonal model output today and compared 2 seasonal models for a month ahead forecast - the Japanese model (JMA) and the CFS (American model), both had a colder signal to them which may suggest a higher degree in confidence in colder conditions occuring. But this is in no way or form a done deal. Stay Tuned to the models folks! There's a lot coming up! (It's almost like a soap!)

Hello Folks!! Here we are again, usual people moaning about no snow, ah the joys of living in Wales! Watch out, PM flow, maybe some danglers/streamers forming into next week......

Don't forget the classic Pembrokeshire Dangler too, this bought heavy snowfall to Western area around the 25th November 2005

Can we not call it "gayness" it's homosexuality. Sorry it bothers me!! haha!! I don't think its genetic at all, surely we shouldn't be studying people to find out what causes homosexuality etc. It seems immoral to me.

Well hello to you, folks!! NEWS FLASH TIME!!!! OPI winter forecast has been released, suggesting a -AO and -NAO... You can read the rest here :- http://app.til.it/opi/ But for a sneak peak :-

Well goodness me, GREAT BALLS OF FIRE!!! Very interesting, the pattern is constant, the location of high pressure over the past week and going into FI has been constant, theres something coming.... But we will have to wait and see!! Keep Smiling folks A pub run special tonight obviously!!!

erm....IT'S BACK!!! http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

This is coming from the Royal Meteorological Society. "RMet is a professional qualification awarded by the Royal Meteorological Society for members pursuing a career in meteorology, or working in a role supporting meteorological services. To be considered for accreditation as a RMet, candidates must have achieved (or be able to demonstrate) the requirements set out in the document below. The extent to which a candidate satisfies the requirements is based on evidence from a candidate’s self-assessment, referees’ reports and the interview panel." - Royal Meteorological Society http://www.rmets.org/our-activities/professional-accreditation/registered-meteorologist-rmet There will be more information in late January!! Keep your eyes peeled!!! Sam

When sending PM's I am unable to use the backspace.... or maybe its me just thought I would let you know Paul

I don't think offering much is the correct termilogy to use...you could give the wrong impression..most people on here are cold fans. I think the word to say is that that there no clear signal as per matt hugo's tweet. JMA is interesting...

I'm not that bothered about getting snow at the moment there's far more exciting things happening (Dr. Who, Christmas, new year etc.). Yes the models look bad from a cold POV (point of view), but then again do we really want a snowfest now? With the ground so warm? I don't thats for sure. Lets all take a chill pill (see I can be down with da beatzzz innit lol!) and relax. I know its so irriatating but we will get there. Slowly. Lets see what happens overnight and into the morning

Don't take those charts for granted..models are only a GUIDE they don't dictate whats going to happen!

Thats too far east haha...never happy xD Put a bet on with mum today that she will see snow see disagrees....£10 is mine hehe

I'm close enough to them, if thunder does happen then that could lower temperatures and upper air temperatures which would lead to evaporative cooling which would turn precipitation to snow

Just had a chat with Derek over twitter, West Carms/East Pembs are expected to see snow/hail, thunder maybe possible...this could of course bring temps down even further...November 2005 anyone?! Best go home just in case!

But it won't amount to much.....the ground is too warm