Snowmadsam

consistant heavy snow here, not settling but still. Time to walk the dog

it's been a rain event here. Never mind

Rain here

Rain here too, I'm not fussed on it settling. I'd just want to see some snow fall out of the sky

I can tell you are jealous! I ate the GU cake sorry! Twiglet anyone? *passes tin around*

You have asked this question so many times. Please stop. Touch and go. Wait and see. There's enough uncertainty in it as it is without "Will it snow" questions. Remember, it's only the start of winter

I present to you, the radar watcher starter pack! -4 upper air holding nicely....

BBC receive 6 hourly updates from forecasters in Exeter; any new information will have to be extracted from the Met Office Media Briefing Service portal via the duty forecaster and be put onto the master “show” on Weatherscape XT manually (imagine the joy of adding snowflakes). We also need to be careful tonight if this snow line heads south it could interact with high winds....the perfect storm

Netweather models placed us north this morning meaning a rain event. No real change on the 18z run last night. This is deffo gonna be a nowcasting event. The heavier the rain is, the more chance of it turning to snow thanks to evaporative cooling

Indeed. Proceed with caution is very much the thing here. A fascinating 24/48/72 hours ahead. As with these events it’s all about timing. I’m gonna start watching around 6pm. (I’ve even asked for an early shift tomorrow 7-5) I’ll update once the 18z Netwx SR comes in

As in 30 miles south. Another 20 and we’d be in the best place

Confidence regarding Sunday is interesting. Netweather models position the event south. A small 20 mile shift could be all it takes

That's correct. The BBC use 6 hourly "shows" as they are referred to on Weatherscape XT. BBC will next get guidance at 6pm this evening, then again at 10. I'm still thinking a 30 mile shift southwards, but remains to be seen

There Netweather Short range model gives us this a short adjustment of 50 miles south could deliver for all of Wales

Marginality is going to be a big factor for this weekend. The now-casting will really begin Saturday evening and early Sunday morning for those on the edge of snow/rain. A fascinating time ahead for sure.

The NetWeather SR model also goes further south, a small 20 miles south would really benefit much of South Wales and the South West.

I maybe able to shed some light on the Beeb situation and what they base forecasts on, after a week work experience in the weather centre around this time last year. Duty weather managers are the only ones who can add raindrops or snowflakes onto forecasts. Even BBC/Meto forecasters have to go through the duty forecaster to add something to charts. Guidance is also handed over to the BBC every six hours from Exeter. With regard to the current situation, I suspect a playing it safe situation is very much being used. For short term forecasts BBC uses NAE and UKV models primarily in regards to precipitation. The situation at the moment weatherwise, is in a word. Unpredictable. I am expecting that slider to head on a more Southerly track. But we will have to wait and see. P.S Also Carol Kirkwood really is nice and very funny Now. I'm going to boil the kettle and watch the 18z come out

Snowfall amounts in these sort of situations are very difficult to predict, especially in a northerly scenario. Take everything with a pinch of salt.

Please can we bear in mind posting Precip charts is as likely as playing pin the tail on the donkey in regard to slider lows at the moment. These are very much now-casting events. You may have more chance of winning the lottery than taking them seriously

Or B*lls up...

Hello, yes it's really me. I'm back for a short while! Can I just say for the newbies here. Please don't get carried away by one run. Especially in the territory these charts are in at the moment (very unfamiliar). We are experiencing something very different to what we have been used to for a number of years. But we must not get carried away. The pattern at the moment looks different, and what really happens post friday, is well anyones guess. If I was to place a bet, I'd be thinking of a mixed month with a NW-SE jet being suggested. Many model outcomes have been suggesting this scenario on and off. Let's wait and see what happens - REMEMBER: It's only the first week of winter! So please have some chill!

1000ft snow drifts and the coldest winter recorded of all time.

Potential dangler setup happening tonight......hmmmm

Evening folks, showers coming in now now most likely to be of snow acrss western areas of Wales.....keep an eye out, potential dangler weather tonight

Very sleety here, but not to snow, strong north winds. All to play for with upper temps going down later - evaporative cooling could help too in those heavy showers. Let's wait and see