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flyer

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    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Pleased to see people are seeing some snow albeit briefly! We've got, you guessed it, rain! lol - typical doh.gif

    Edit: heavier shower just arrived with hail now so at least something different to rain!

    Ah a snow flake. Maybe best not to move after all but wait to see how the weather pans out :clap:

    Just heard Dan the man on the valve set and he said southern counties will wake up to a dusting.

    Believe it when I see it stuff .

    Tidy mansions with 50 acres are going for 2.5 up here. If you want something a little dearer head into Berkshire. :) Not much coast around these parts though. :clap:

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by flyer

    Hi flyer, I must admit the gfs has it progged further south but I dont hold out much hope for here in Poole. The upper temps are not gonna be cold enough until at least the weekend but as ever live in hope.

    Good Evening Kent and Slb

    I know what you both mean but as ever I am the eternal otimist :lol:

    If you go back to last year one low did a right hander as it approached the channel and that one that went left and headed over Somerset. I was 100% gutted in fact I still havn't totally recovered :whistling:

    But just a nudge to the East and down a bit and it would be game on. Still I expect you have noticed how the meto area has got bigger as the day has progressed so that is a +ve.

    Maybe we will have a post race chat in 24 hours to see if we all went skiing or Sailing :D

    Cheers

    me

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by flyer

    Yep I'm familiar with the breakdown scenario (some things have managed to get into my brain which is a miracle as they're a bit science based) but being on the coast we usually get the rain which starts turning to snow the further north it travels as it meets the cold air! What's the best 'system', if there is one, for us to benefit from? e.g. northerly seems to have a 'wishbone' effect for the east/west coasts, easterly for the east coasts etc and for us, well, erm....not sure lol! pardon.gif

    Well as you say Northerlys are not so good for us as unless they are sustained the precip is dumped way before us and the air needs to be very unstable to get any upward flow. Agree the wishbone effect due to the highlands rules things out. It is only the meeting of fronts that gives us a shout.

    If the low moves from the East then the rotation will spill over from the North East blowing inland with some advection off the North Sea.

    The best bet is whisltling lows moving West to East. Quite tight as you dont want a warm Sw flow but a quite tight flow that is not directly affected by the warming atlantic when this hits any high you want it to ride up over to give height. Pretty complex stuff as there are so many variables due to our proximity being an isolated land mass.

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by flyer

    One thing I've learnt from reading stuff on the model thread is not to pay too much attention to things in 'FI' as they invariably change - does this apply to the lows on the 16th as well? cc_confused.gif

    Yep :yahoo:

    But sooner or later we will get a breakdown from the West which will give us a fight between moisture and cold.

    But way before then the weather is making inroads from the East or North. Just needs to make it's mind up.

    Imho an Easterly followed by a Northerly.

    Edit : It's gone very quiet in there since the bun fight :cold:

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hey Stormboy,

    I've been over to the Model Thread and it looks like it's going to be dry, cold/very cold with frosts and any snow confined mostly to east coasts/far south east. I can't beat your record wrt snow but we had a great time in early January here in Portsmouth and the surrounding areas with a lot more snow than a lot of people have seen for many a year! I also had the added bonus of spending New Year in the Peak District and saw loads of snow then as well so I've been lucky.

    To be honest I don't expect to see much in the way of anymore snow for this region apart from the occasional flurry so I won't be disappointed if any lampost watching doesn't bear fruit! Anyway, here's hoping for lots of great thunderstorms later this year, they're my favourite! smile.gif

    Trust me it will snow.

    Just might have to wait a few days till things evolve.

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Well I've enjoyed an almost 'warm' day with plenty of sunshine here - even saw a dozy wasp!!

    Looks like getting colder next week then but not much in the way of any snow for us central southerners from what I can gather, still dry, cold and sunny.... it could be worse! smile.gif

    Hey slb less of the gloom . Here are the plus points. If we get an easterly then look for trough disruption (ripples) this is where precipitation can more often be found. If we get strong flow then showers can get blown in land a fair way . A southeasterly will pick up some extra moisture from the channel although you are a bit close to the coast for things to get going(but hey at least you get to see the factory right above your head as things are shipped up to my end :lol: )

    If we get a ENE then the Thames estuary is good at generating snow streamers.

    And as stated earlier you get overnight channel lows forming just when you least expect them which have brought many a surprise in times gone by .

    If it's a North Easterly then I am afraid the snow will have to be trucked in at £120 per 15 tonner :D :lol:

    OK or we could go dutch on a snow cannon :clap:

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi Flyer,

    I've been reading the model thread with interest but things seem quite focussed on the eastern/central/southeast counties so not sure what, if any, it all means for us in the south central coastal areas. Looks like it might be cold though! cold.gif

    Hello slb that was a quick lurk.

    Looking at the model synoptics if they do not change for the worse then I think we could be in with more than a shout.

    Have been scanning joe b (laminite floori) the infamous "weatheraction" and BFTP who follows a not dissimilar method together with GP,Steve Murr, TEITS, nick sussex, cooling climate,eugene etc in fact anyone who is saying what I want to hear :):)

    But all that aside Blasts "LRF forecast has been pretty good Watch for those unexpected channel lows popping up too.

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Get those runners greased up Girls and Guys "could " be the big one on the way next week.

    Watch to see if those lows in the atlantic sink south and east and give a series of catherine wheel effects on their northern flanks while hoovering up from the channel and pulling in continential colder air .

    Potentially mega amounts of moisture advected upwards.

    But then again ....... :D

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by flyer

    This is becoming a regular feature of the weather of late or maybe the interpretation is a better summary.

    Go to bed full of anticipation, get up really subdued due to a change of plan.

    My eyes cannot take any more or my brain.

    Could be another Gas oven event on the boards this evening ! :unknw:

    2 deg with a thaw of lying snow . Bit of a flurry going on.

    Block if one can call it that seems to be over Hants way so still a bit of uncertainty. West of that warming up alarmingly. Might see some white stuff tonight.

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