winter watcher

Morning all Overnight runs are very good as we all seem to get hit from this weekends event baring western areas and north western areas. Judging by the overnighters i would say at the moment Northamptionshire south and east looks best placed will try and do a map later on this.

Morning all Bitter outside this morning current temp in wimbledon is -4.2c with broken clouds rolling in. Overnight runs are very good at the moment by brining all the se snow at some point over the next 2 days.

Nothing has changed since earlier we will see 10.20.50. miles differences in future runs. But the main point being as long as we are still in the game com Saturday afternoon.

The big thing i notice about the cold and event that's already happening is that when was the last time we last seen -5.3c temps ( Which i currently have ) And no frost??? This just goes to show you how clean and how dry the air is.

Yep all stocked up here in Wimbledon got me Vodka & 12 cans of Red Bull and 40 smokes for Sat Night. Supposed to be going pub before hand so it should be fun.

West Londoner here 'You are not alone'

Also just wanted to ask everyone's opinion here: Where does Peter Cockroft get snow turning to rain scenario from considering all the models put in front of us today and the meto saying snow only??? His forecast really was beyond me...

Just seen Ian F Tweet good news for me I expect i line from hearts southwards to see the main snowfall although would not rule a slight shift westwards maybe 50 miles east or west over the coming days.

I would suggest that the mods on here issue a new thread as this event clearly needs one. We should have the eastern and south eastern coastal thread and a London and surrounding counties thread. This would save a lot of confusion for new members and a lot of time for the mods. At this present time it looks likely that London and areas and west of are in a favored position to see the most snowfall all subject to change of course. And no it will not turn to sleet and rain inland.

. It is plan clear that all current updated models & METO are showing a snow only event with no milder air incoming once the snow has moved on. The cold air never leaves the south east until at least late next week and that is not a given.

I cannot remember the last good storm we seen in London and the home counties.

Also the met have not put a foot wrong this winter simply because there was no conflicting signal for cold weather up until late January - February. Look not only at the n-w winter lrf but also posters like gp & chino.

I work for on the rail network and since joining 10+ years ago we have always received faxes from the Meto in cold weather. And so far we have only received a fax that ice and cold temps are likely to be below freezing within the next 24 hours. From there what we do is use winter precautions by gritting stations.

Unless you work for the met office mate i would suggest you remove the post before people start questioning this and here is why: First point: Yes the Meto have access to models we do not see but they seem to be siding with the ukmo which is all to progressive with the pattern and within the reliable we keep noticing short term upgrades within t72+ i.e the block being modeled further west and the recent tweets from the pros state high uncertainty i.e there sitting on the fence. Second point to add: The Meto state that the only place to likely see milder conditions returning is the far north west of england and not the south east of england unless you class max temps of +1c to 4c tops before signals and outputs are suggesting a further plunge of cold weather to the united kingdom. Third and final: Have you seen the latest BBC and Meto forecasts suggesting that this period is likely to be mainly snow less? Well tonight we have seen parts of the region hit by snow showers and a streamer setting up although not nationwide suggests to me that the BBC and METO are very much underplaying the chances for snow in the very near future.

Even if it has fallen as light rain for some it proves one thing to me. That no chart can predict streamers and local snow events even at t6+ i would therefore take no notice of the BBC forecast and the meto forecasts and instead stick to radar and this thread for guidance. The BBC and Meto seem to me a good bet to follow when a large scale snowfall is predicted and even then they are prone to balls it up.

See i have seen snow tonight but because of the rate its falling it is just turning wet on cars and roofs ect. So i would guess the same applies nanu?

See i am in the south west of London not far off the river Thames ( Putney Bridge ) lets hope for some action eh!

Steve or Darren is this a Thames streamer or a Kent clipper? Had light snizzle snow on and off here in Wimbledon since 20:30

The lamp post watching has begun for winter 2011-2012 FINALLY. And i am reporting very light snizzle snow

Remember it very well Paul i was posting and everyone say i was telling tall tales and Steve Murr kindly put up a N-W precip map with my post code and he said i was correct. I posted the snaps next day and everyone was in amazement truly memorable event.

Had a few flakes falling while having a ciggie in between my meal at a local restaurant here in Wimbledon a nice surprise to start off the week.

john @06kayeya · Open @fergieweather Is exeter going to bin the latest UKMO as it is showing the block just evaporating which looks wrong to me Ian Fergusson @fergieweather @06kayeya no, they were keen on their GM solution for Fri-Sat & snow potential but we await their new 12z analysis... Interesting times.

Hi John I don't expect mass upgrades in the pattern beyond +72 but what we do want to see is the trend of the high pushing west in the reliable. The output is so unpredictable past +72 at the moment and is likely to change and differ with every run. If i was you i would save every run and compare from each run on a daily basis how much that high moves west.

I have not checked to see if the post was deleted. But would like to add to this that BFTP & Roger are very much usually bang on with there winter LRF they do not base their predictions on a wild guess they use a scientific method such as solar cycles and signals from the strat and certain patterns. I would therefore say that if it was removed by a mod then they may end up making the wrong decision. Roger would not post if he does not have facts and confidence of it happening.

I am not far from Putney Bridge and has always done very very well from Thames streamers. A truly truly wonderful set up if all comes good.