winter watcher

I see a lot talking about the meto forecast re milder air. Browsing through the site all i can gather is milder air possibly hitting the far north west of england. I cannot see milder air coming into southern and eastern districts. Also the meto are talking about this weekend and if you do follow the MOD thread you will see that FI is at 72+ and at the moment we keep seeing the trend to upgrade within the 72+ reliable time frame. So i would suggest that if we keep seeing upgrades at 72+ then the meto forecast will be wrong even for nw areas and we will see cold dominance.

I remember over 4 years ago ( Cannot believe it has been that long lool ) when we had a very marginal situation in the home counties where a few miles could make a difference between snow and rain. I just moved about three miles east from where i used to live that winter and i remember myself getting plastered with snow about near a foot and remember me posting pics on net weather and everyone doubting the depth until steve murr had a net weather radar and showing my area getting plastered. Unfortunately the next day all was melted but was a great experience to witness.

I must admit the thing that makes myself come back on the net weather forum each winter is that i was just old enough to remember the 87 & 91 events. I remember waking up in the morning and seeing fresh snow and lots of it and what i enjoyed most is the clear weather in between the snow would not melt it was that cold and at night you would look out the window and see everything is like a ice cube. I especially remember this forecast.... Still brings a smile to my face and i hope we see this repeated over the next few weeks i hope

Who knows maybe this easterly can eclipse those past events although everything needs to be perfect & prolonged in order to do so. I just have a feeling in me water ( Maybe the fosters ) that after the dreaded winter we have experienced so far ( Cold & Snow lovers ) that we will see a great end to winter 2011-2012 something along the lines of 2009-2010 but this time bringing a beast of a friend.

Just want to compare your thoughts in regards to past easterly's both failed and nailed maybe you experienced the January 1987 Easterly or the Feb 1991 Easterly and lived to tell the tale or maybe you wish to speak about the famous failed easterly of 2005 ( I think ). Whatever you thoughts good and bad cold and snowy please tell all here.

Having just read the meto along with the latest bbc forecast they seem pretty confident of a eastern influence and would now say that its 70% - 30% into colder weather winning out. But what seems uncertain is how long will it last and how cold it will get. Although i have had confidence in GP LRF and would say that if this easterly happens it will stick around for a good while.

Have to agree things do not look so promising now. The ECM 12z run probably showing a 48 hour cold snap at best. --- Cooling Climate As i stated by 128 + i could see that this was going to be a belter. I am picking out this comment because to me CC you have not looked at the charts before you posted know wonder newbies are so confused and there is bickering going on in here most winters.

Anonymous21- So can someone put this in simple terms for me, is this a good run or not? Hell yes full of cold and potential for it when it sets up to get better and better. Hope that helps.

192 + and it gets better and better

Have to agree things do not look so promising now. The ECM 12z run probably showing a 48 hour cold snap at best. And why do you suggest this? The ECM screams cold as well as POTENTIAL for down the line.

T168 is fine but its been put back...My moneys on the GFS to win this by a country mile and its 18z will confirm the ECM backtrack tonight. ECM will continue to show T168 charts...expect it to backtrack in its T00 tmw Regards Ah but the ECM has not backtracked has it. It still as you were for me and if anything the GFS was a slight improvement to this evening than this morning which leads me to think it will eventually come into line with the ECM.

Out to 168+ and here comes the cold...

Fail to see the despondency with regards to the ecm +144 looks great to me and can only go one way from here ! The model saga continues until the pub run and the 00z.

I disagree on the point highlighted. The models of late has been all over the place for instance 36 - 48 hours ago when the easterly disappeared only for it to dramatically reappear the following morning with all big three singing from the same sheet and now again we see models dropping the idea. Who is not to say that it will not reappear again in tomorrows models. I can understand every cold lovers disappointments as i am one myself but easterly's are never straight forward to forecast and hence the reason why i believe that this will go down to the wire.

I think the best thing all round is to concentrate on synoptics upto maximum 144hrs. - Nick Sussex Nick i agree to concentrate on the reliable up until that crucial 128+ - 168. However just a thought is that we keep seeing cold if not very cold runs in to the realms of FI however hardly no mild runs. Correct me if i am wrong but this chopping and changing could go right to the wire and i mean T48 as not only due to the complex situation but also other factors as per the GP theory and effects that go with this?

To be honest i would bank a chart like this a cool and cold outlook with night and morning frosts where we don't get cloud cover in the reliable time frame. And high chances into a progression to much colder conditions as we move into the final third of January which ties in well with GP'S and Roger J Smith forecasts. It was always a slim chance that we would see a easterly and i would not be surprised to see it shown on future runs but i think we would need a few bites of the cherry and eventually it will come.

I think the latest ECM is a lot better than the GFS but in terms of what it showed this morning maybe if anything its more of a half way house and possibly a lot more realistic as the real cold for mid to late month has been suggested for a while.

Brilliant looking chart that oozes potential may be the GFS is now beginning to play catch up with the ECM!

Please forgive me for being well ' Not to clued up ' But i thought we was more likely to see a cold attack from the N/E - E direction and not directly from north? Or could it be a northerly attack then with a chance of a easterly outbreak?

This is a very very complex situation and in this situation where i feel instead of looking at the low res outputs stick to the trend within +120 or below. As GP & SM & Fred have all stated that the models in fi will chuck and churn out more how we say ' Different Solutions ' over the coming days before sitting on a actual trend i would hazard a guess to say nothing will become clearer until mid next week as we are still in a process of going through GP'S transformation to a proposed change. Its going to be a case of either 'Slowly Slowly Catchy Monkey' Or the age old saying on here 'Close but no Cuban' Either way its too early to say and tell.

Yes Kold going by the above charts posted from Lewis i think surrey and sussex border can do well out of this set up and with the GFS upgrading the potential for a more prolonged event its just a case of - How hard it will rain ? with a very wet ground it will take very heavy continuous snow to fall for it to settle. Lets just hope it can readily turn to snow as we have seen so far this evening it is currently colder than the forecast suggested previously. Anyway no work tomorrow and red bull and cigs handy well worth a watch. Good Luck all !

Way too much bickering going on in here c'mon guys and girls its bonfire night have some fun and chilax the weather will do what it likes. We are speculators and by no means experts. My view is as the likes of BFTP ( Fred ) & Steve M. We need to see this euro high disappear which is no mean feat but signs are for a change to emerge after mid November where signs are for things to get a little more interesting for us golden coldies however as we all know nothing is for certain in this business until it happens. So in the mean time we stay stuck in a rut awaiting the change. Next week we see above average temps and cloudy overcast conditions with the odd shower or longer spell of rain in the south and for once in the early part of next week up north will be pleasant with sunny spells and a chance of frost by night if sky's stay clear. Either way we should see by mid to late next week where we go once the pattern change does happen.

Im in Wimbledon surrey and these showers are so frequent and intense. But still no thunder or lightning heard.

Afternoon all. Had on and off showers this morning before it brightened up. The last hour clouds have rolled in and got pretty dark. Very heavy rain showers keep happening every ten or so minutes but as of yet no thunder or lightning seen or heard. Have a good evening.

Harry thanks for your thoughts very much appreciated. Im going to go have a little nap and come back and see whats happening at around two. Hopefully i will have a surprise awaiting.