Glaswegianblizzard
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Posts posted by Glaswegianblizzard
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Congrats to you all NS, cracking news!
Looking out for any more info on storm Isha tomorrow, seems a bit concerning.
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Treacherous black ice in Inverclyde this morning. Actually quite dangerous in places.
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1 hour ago, Mair Snaw said:
The BBC has mr down for 17 hours of snaw showers heavy at times from 6pm...
Do i believe it... nope not untill i see it..
School closed for 3rd straight day here too..
-5 c a moment ago and it felt it while i fetched firewood
Not the greatest when schools can’t open because of a bit of snow.
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Just had some rain here. Some of the hills in Cowal away from the Clyde have a dusting of snow from earlier.
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Not the first time this winter that weather warnings have been spectacularly wrong. becoming quite difficult to have faith in the system now.
My work place has started putting a lot investment into weather forecasting and even it has been quite hit and miss at times too. Maybe there’s an issue with the models, or interpretation of the models perhaps? Definitely lacking the accuracy that people would expect.
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Also, I get quite annoyed at stupid newspaper headlines about cold weather, but netweather seem to be joining in here. ‘The Arctic cold deepens’ calm doon its about -3 or something. I’d have thought this site would’ve known better.
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Currently watch snow fall over on Cowal. So far not showing any interest in coming over here.
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Yeah not to be a doomsayer but my expectations have been adjusted down by some margin now.
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2 hours ago, johncam said:
We have went from-6 to -2 and no ice days now , aw well mabye next time
Let’s see what happens. It could be right and it’s not as severe as forecast, but I think these events can begin to appear changeable the closer we get.
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6 hours ago, A Winter's Tale said:
At the moment it looks like this cold spell will be closer to Dec 2022 and Feb 2021 than 2009/10. The models are showing a week long cold spell which is a decent length but obviously not as impressive as the two week+ spells in 2010. Since then there haven’t been too many cold spells longer than a week. Here’s a list of spells with 7+ consecutive days of 5c or lower maxima at Glasgow airport: Jan 2011 (7), Jan-Feb 2012 (9), Nov-Dec 2012 (9), Jan 2013 (14), Mar 2013 (8), Jan 2015 (7), Jan-Feb 2015 (7), Jan 2016 (9), Jan 2018 (7), Feb-Mar 2018 (9), Dec 2020-Jan 2021 (13), Jan-Feb 2021 (10), Feb 2021 (8), Dec 2022 (10).
There is the chance the cold spell could be extended as there is uncertainty concerning the strength of the high pressure over Greenland, the possibility of a wedge of high pressure persisting to our north as well as cold weather being difficult to shift.
The duration of cold temperatures is only one factor in determining the magnitude of a cold spell. The depth of cold is another. According to the GFS 06z we could be looking at 4-5 days with widespread maxima of 0C or lower which is pretty notable. In the past 50 years at Glasgow airport there have only been two days with maxima -2C or lower in the second half of winter (there’s a chance we could see such a temperature during this spell). There’s also the chance of notable minima - especially in the highlands and parts of the southern uplands - as the charts posted on this thread showed last night. I think we lows of -15 to -20C are quite likely in the highlands (-20C a possibility) and in central Scotland we could see -7 to -12C.
With regards to snow it’s too early to tell but I’d say most places north of Dundee should be in the firing line of most showers. In such set ups, for most inland places we are relying on features popping up out of nowhere to deliver a surprise. It’s possible this cold spell could be predominately dry like Dec 2022 but even the spell provided a decent fall here towards the end. Also there’s always the chance of a battleground snowfall during the breakdown. Looking at the models there is a feature which could bring snow (should the warm sector play ball) to western and central areas although I suspect it may end up tracking further south to impact SW Scotland and NW England.
So, while this cold spell may not (yet) be a repeat of 2010 as some charts promised over a week ago this still looks like a reasonable cold spell and at the moment the signs are positive for the rest of winter. This winter has already produced a couple of decent falls so I’d take one big fall of 10cm+ or a smaller fall which leaves a few cm lasting for a few days. Despite the complaints from some in the model thread about the lack of snow (primarily for southern England) Scotland is in a decent position to experience snow and hopefully we’ll enjoy widespread snow cover.
The charts at the moment remind me a little of late Dec 2000 which lasted for little more than a week. At Glasgow airport there were 5 consecutive ice days, a low of -11C and one fall of snow dumped around 20cm in the area. It’s an example of how cold spells don’t need to be prolonged to pack a punch. And you don’t need stonking high latitude blocking to produce impactful winter weather. Looking through the archives of some of the notable periods of winter weather it’s striking how quite a lot of the charts are not that impressive at face value (at least by the standards set by some in the model thread).
Great post, thanks very much!
All replies noted, expectations adjusted accordingly! All looking pretty interesting for the next week - bring it on!
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Are we looking at a potential 2009/10 style cold spell here (which we are probably overdue if we don’t count the BFTE in 2018?), or is it looking less sustained than that?
My phone was earlier showing temps in Glasgow of around -12 during next week, but these have since been replaced with around -6/-7.
Popped into the model thread, absolutely nothing of use on display in there…
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Purely going on past experience, I’d be amazed if Central Scotland got a lot of snow from a front moving in from any direction bar the east. Northerlies create wishbone effect and westerlies tend to turn to rain. Struggling to get the excitement so far, not wanting to put a dampener on it but I can also sense the possibility of mass disappointment next week!
North of the Central belt is a different matter of course.
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Very foggy here this morning. Got a chorus of boat horns serenading my Sunday morning.
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17 hours ago, Bats32 said:
It's fairly crazy in there, like to come back here for some sanity......
Enjoyed the sun today, felt like we got some much needed vitamin D! Going to enjoy the drier and cooler period for a while as makes a nice change from the Atlantic enslaught.
Sorry to disappoint, but we won’t get any vitamin D from the sun until April. It’s too low until then.
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5 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:
Cold weather alert for England. Apparently they'll be getting the same temps as we've been getting the last few weeks.
*To clarify: we've not been above 8C for about a month, and most days, it's topped at around 4C or 5C. It's winter. Cold weather alert: look at your calendar!
I can sort of understand that. If it doesn’t regularly get as cold down there then I guess you have to bring it to peoples attention.
Likewise some of our cold weather wouldn’t cause anyone to bat an eyelid in northern Norway.
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Happy new year everybody! Need an early January holiday here….
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Was amazed to see no snow around Glasgow Airport/Braehead, yet coastal Inverclyde still has a covering this evening. I’m guessing snowfall was a bit higher here because of some sort of sea effect or something?
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Quite thick snow here.
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Well I’m glad that Denmark is taking it seriously enough, just a shame the the UK Met Office - and the last I checked Scotland is still part of the UK - don’t seem especially interested.
This is a very bizarre response given that many organisations responsible for infrastructure in Scotland are pretty much on high alert over the next few days. Surely they’re not overplaying it?You’d think the met office would also play a part in warning the public.
If a storm was going to bring winds of upto 80mph to England, you could be sure they’d have named it. I can see an inquest being held in a few days time over this.
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Surprised there’s not more interest in this. Met Office seem to be sitting on something as there are preparations ongoing now in Scotland for significant disruption to infrastructure over the next few days.
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Not sure what the Met Office are sitting on here re: this potential storm Gerrit on Thursday but my work are gearing up for significant disruption over the next 2-3 days.
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See we already have a yellow wind warning for Thursday, can see that being upgraded in some places once we have more certainty.
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9 hours ago, johncam said:
I have no doubt you guys up north will get a few colder days but down here up to Sat , met don't even have us getting a frost
. But has you say can change.
The prevailing weather type here is mild SW’ly wind and rain, so if you’re going to get really down every time a possible cold spell disappears from the forecast, you’re building yourself up for a lot of disappointment.
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Well yesterday was nice!
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Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Glaswegianblizzard
How come I’m seeing some people saying severe winds for England and Wales with some impact on Western Scotland, and others saying much greater impact on western Scotland?
Is the track that uncertain?