winterfreak

I'm confusd too and the build up is likened to waiting for a filling at the mo.......

Alas, i knew this talk of 'winters of old' was just FI...... I'm an optimist but a realist also. I just can't see that cold weather coming. Those in the know say 'don't compare the models 'run-to-run', look for the trend'. The only trend i see is that the cold weather remains maddeningly elusive and will remain so...... I'm more than happy to be proved wrong though.

You're serious right? Come on... Or is that only if the ECM pans out? It's not in the bag yet is it?

Waddya reckon then Leiws for Kent?....

I'm literally in Wrotham now, on the foot of the Downs. 4c and no ppn at all sadly.......

You think so? The only trend i keep getting from the models is a dissapation into the ether of anything remotely wintery......

4c with a Northerly 9mph wind. Pressure 1028mb and 3c dewpoint! Cloudy but good visibility.

no... Why all the gloom then? i thought everyone thinks it's crap?

Thanks very much John for taking the time to explain (although i'm not much wiser) and i'll try to take on board what i can. It's not that i have a downbeat view of models, i apologise if it came across like that, i just couldn't get the 'fortune telling' explanation out of my own head re them. I understand that it's all about trends and they shouldn't be compared 'run to run' but i just could explain the models to myself in a way that makes sense

As a newbie i can't understand the models in that they are, effectively, crystal balls (in the meteorlogical sense). I struggle to understand the worship in them. They are just computer models right? They aren't exactly what the weather is doing 'right now'. I mean, it's the same as saying 'if i had a million quid........' On that basis the ECM or GFS could just put whatever squiggly lines, pretty colours and 850hpa temps on that they like, it doesn't actually mean zip, does it? I can't get my head round the 'well if the ECM verifies, London will be under 18' of snow' etc, surely any scenario is possible if the chart verifies? Please explain to a numpty why computer models are just so thrilling and why so much faith is placed in them......

I'm guessing upgrade but in the long term (ie when it's actually supposed to snow) it'll downgrade dramatically....:winky: I hope it doesn't but gut feeling won't let me get excited....

When's this blumming cold coming??? Still about 3c down here in Tonbridge and i'm fed up with mild.......:winky:

You're a brave man Lewis......<_<

Will it snow here in Kent? Whatever the answer i'm not convinced. I've been on for the best part of a week now and it's been consistently 'We'll know by Thursday/Friday/Saturday' and so on. The longer it takes to arrive then the more that it won't actually get here... Whilst i'd love it to snow, i feel in my heart it'll be a massive poop-sandwich.......

Metcheck's been in a pickle all day.......

I take it all's still fairly 'odds on' for some wintry weather??? I'd love snow for all but TBH, just some heavy frosts and 0c max temps would be just as lovely and would be certainly more seasonal........

As a total novice it's great in a way to sort of sit back and 'watch' you guys and the rollercoaster of emotions. I feel a bit guilty as there are some members on here saying 'we've waited 7/8/9/10 years to see synoptic patterns like those that are being shown at the moment' and i've been on here a few weeks and seen it already! But as i remember January 1987 here in Kent and have waited so long to see that sort of winter again, i'm almost as worked up as the more experienced people! It's harrowing for a snow buff here in the SE because one moment we're full on for 'lake effect' snow, then we're only going to get light drizzle, then 'looking fabulous for the SE', then 'mild Sw'lys'....ARGGHHHH!!!!!

Does anyone think we'll be lucky for the old white stuff in Kent????

Bit windy in Tunny Wells later this week....... http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/7days.asp

I'm up, too excited to sleep but I rely on everyone else for info as I don't understand the models well enough to comment! Looking forward to some snow in Kent if we're lucky!!! Sorry OT mods... Hope this run is a belter Steve!!!

Is it worth panic buying yet???:o But seriously, my nan is 86 and lives alone. I know i want a snowfest but i'm worried because if the snow comes off, we couldn't get to her...unless i borrow the work quad bike i suppose...:o Is it worth preparing for in a serious way?

I'm merely a novice and really understand only the merest basics! I live in Kent and it's pure torture at the moment because one minute the SE is going to get a dumping, then it's merely a marginal area, then a snow fest, then drizzle...... It's shredding my nerves here people.....:o:crazy::o

Please don't tempt fate, it's all too eager to pee on our fire at the best of times.....

It's another '87 i long for Two foot of snow on the North downs....Bliss!!!

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm Does anyone know why such a sudden drop? Tech problems?