Nick F

18z GFS has Friday low coming north out of France further east again and moving north more quickly rather than loitering. Still a lot of rain for parts of E England. 18z ICON pretty wet for SE / E England on Friday too, but low doesn't get very far north like GFS. Still a lot of uncertainty over track. Like I said earlier, probably down to sensitivities of the strength and position of the developmental left exit of a jet streak moving north over France - where Friday's low forms.

Wind really howling down the chimney this evening, more recently since it changed from easterly to southwesterly. Temps have really shot up across the SE this evening. For example, below, Heathrow was 12.8C at 4pm and 10pm it was 17.2C, warmest it's been all day.

12z GFS has a different take on Friday's low coming up from France, much further W than 06z run. It brings 2 areas with accumulations of 100mm+ over east Hampshire/ W Sussex & another over E Monmouthshire/ W Gloucestershire. UKV trending a similar track. But the track probably not nailed yet. The formation of the low over N France Friday morning perhaps senstive to the position of the left exit of the jet streak blasting north over France. IMO the low forms in this developmental area of the jet where upper winds diverge and surface winds converge to fill the void. But position of this still to be resolved. This low looks to deepen quite rapidly too while loitering somewhere over S England or SE/EA.

06z AROME nicely shows instability (CAPE shown by pink contours) and the threat of thunderstorms arrive from the south through tomorrow afternoon. My go to model for any thunderstorm risk now.

An early look at the possible weather patterns that may develop this coming winter. El Nino will be one of the biggest drivers of patterns, but will also look at other drivers that may play their part. View the full blog here

Last Sunday afternoon 25C in the SE, today - struggling to reach 10-11C. Summer last weekend, but now definitely autumn

October is often one of the wettest months of the year, so make the most of the sunshine next few days. After a dry 1st 10 days in the south, it looks like midweek until end of this month going to make up for it. Scotland could do without more rain after the recent deluge it experienced, but warning already out for the NE. October 2018 was the last below average October rainfall-wise, 2020 was particularly wet for England & Wales. Wettest October I remember in my lifetime was Oct 2000, was living in Brighton at the time and remember the roads turning into rivers and nearby Lewes the river flooding the town.

Managed to catch a bit of a rainbow behind Heathrow airport looking north on the back edge of a shower moving southeast to the east recently A well-speckled satellite image early evening showing the showery polar NW flow today, with crisp blue skies in between.

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-10-12 21:33:29 Valid: 13/10/2023 0000 to 14/10/2023 0000 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 13TH OCT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

Not bad for 7th October, this wouldn't be bad for high summer either

Looking at a trend GIF for GFS over last 6 runs for 18z Thursday in the coming week, it looks like the model today has backed-off getting the colder polar air into southern areas on Thursday, it stays north. GFS backed off a cooler day tomorrow over England and Wales and now has it as warm as today, like the other models. Not sure we can trust it when it's cooler than others, a cold bias perhaps. After a slight cooling on Thursday to mid-teens for London, it warms up a bit on Friday. But a cooling trend after next weekend, but can we trust it?

Any prospect of snow seems so far off at the moment, 24C at Headcorn, Kent and climbing. Shame I'm working all day today and tomorrow.

Becoming very warm this weekend across southern Britain, as hot air spreads north over western Europe, temperatures perhaps reaching 25-26C. But can it be called an Indian Summer? View the full blog here

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-10-02 07:46:04 Valid: 02/10/2023 0600 to 03/10/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - MON 02 OCT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

Probably to do with wildfire smoke from Canada being drawn in across the Atlantic by Agnes.

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-09-27 08:01:19 Valid: 27/09/2023 0800 to 28/09/2023 0600 SEVERE WEATHER WATCH - WEDS 27 SEPT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-09-25 20:00:48 Valid: 26/09/2023 0600 to 27/09/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - TUES 26 SEPT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-09-21 09:03:02 Valid: 21/09/2023 0600 to 22/09/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 21 SEPT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-09-20 08:43:37 Valid: 20/09/2023 0600 - 21/09/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 20 SEPT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

Blog explaining what's behind the flooding and severe thunderstorms over past few days and also the prospect of more heavy rain on the way this week. View the full blog here

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-09-10 08:08:51 Valid: 10/09/2023 0600 - 11/09/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 10TH SEPT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-09-09 07:36:16 Valid: 09/09/2023 0600 to 10/09/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SAT 09 SEPT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

After a new September record today of 5 days in a row with temperatures exceeding 30C, the heat persists into the weekend, but slowly pushed towards the southeast, while risk of thunderstorms increases by Sunday. Turning cooler and fresher on Tuesday View the full blog here

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-09-07 13:18:51 Valid: 07/09/2023 1300 to 08/09/2023 0100 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 07 SEPT 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-08-23 21:10:47 Valid: 24/08/2023 0000 to 25/08/2023 0000 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 24TH AUG 2023 Click here for the full forecast