kev238
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Posts posted by kev238
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I think the -10 uppers are just hitting the Lincolnshire Coast and the radar is looking promising as it highlights the potential for next few days
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None of the models suggest Sunday being a good day for the Midlands generally. It’s tonight and into tomorrow where things get more interesting
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The period Monday - Wednesday looks good for the Midlands- esp the North and East Midlands
I don’t expect huge depths but a few places which are lucky will do well. I’m minded to stay positive as the BFTE 2018 was delivering little to Notts until the 28th Feb when a streamer set up for 16 hours delivered 10-15 cm - this wasn’t shown on apps / models etc until it was starting where all of a sudden from barely any snow symbols there were 16 heavy snow symbols
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The models are certainly picking up the potential showery convection Monday - Wednesday . Things look a bit better in that regard for many areas
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I agree that the output looks slightly underwhelming for snow in this region although it really will be a case of watching the radar
models always underestimate convection with a cold flow from the North Sea so there may be some surprises though overnight tonight might be best opportunity for more western and southern parts of the midlands
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The output does look underwhelming at the moment for this region but there are enough hints from the models to suggest there will be some snow showers in the region
it will be a case of watching the radar
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Well it’s nailed on that next week could be the most wintry period since the beast and potentially 2013
There is cross model agreement for this - clearly distribution of snow is up for grabs but I would think it might be wise to get a fully stocked fridge before the end of the weekend
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The ECM is magnificent for snow across much of UK
Things are looking very promising . I don’t think it will backtrack but another 24hrs of runs will surely solidify confidence
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I think there can be increasing confidence for the majority of the UK of a bitter spell laden with Eastern Promise. It really would take a shift Of monumental proportions for it to go wrong now
And pressure looks low so quite unsettled with it too
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Well.. one thing is looking pretty evident on all models . That the weather is going to be very wet ( Infact potentially exceptionally so) in the next 10 days. The chance is there that some precipitation could be wintry but floods re-emerging could be the major story
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The amber warning came out at the precise moment it stopped snowing in Nottingham
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Very heavy snow here in Nottingham city centre . Definitely worse the further south in the city you are which is unusual
It looks like a few more hours of this with intensity lessening over time
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About 4-5 cm in central nottingham. I feel quite lucky as less than 20 mins north there’s hardly anything.
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The pivot looks ideal for Nottingham , Derby , Tamworth , Burton , Matlock though in this region of it can go wrong if will. Some light insignificant snow in the centre of Notts now
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In Nottingham - it’s looking better than it did 6hrs ago
I reckon somewhere between Notts and Leicester will do best in the end
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I think a realistic expectation is more of what we have seen this month . Cool to cold Generally with snow potential - probably in much the same places that have done well in recent weeks. The models neatly match the long range Met Office forecasts which have never talked of deep cold from the east but the chance of battleground events and wintery hazards
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This low pressure looks like it could bring more precipitation than was expected in areas that don’t need it !
this could be winter or it could be wet!
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The danger with all these runs is that it looks like the sort of pattern that could deliver a lot of rain ( or transient snow) to some areas that really don’t need it!
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Nottingham ( Watnall) by the end of the 18th had had a staggering 101mm of rainfall against an end of month average in Feb of 47mm
That means the rainfall % if it stayed dry is already over 200% for the whole month (and we all know stay dry it isn’t !)
There must be a good chance of a top 5 wettest Feb across the country
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There is no way around it - this winter will end unsettled with the same sort of pattern that has been around for most of the season
A complete lack of snow for most of the country though I was lucky to be in a tiny strip of snowfall last Monday in Nottingham so cant complain too much
A lot more rain to come although less intense across England than during the first 20 days of this month
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Absolutely lashing it down in Nottingham
I think flood defences are going to be tested greatly over next 48-72 hours
Trent is predicted to reach about 4.3 metres at Nottingham which is high but over a metre less than 2000
but these predictions are increasing hour by hour
The exceptionally wet 6 months has culminated in this potentially catastrophic flooding event
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36mm of rain in Nottingham in the 12hrs to 6am this morning
most fell from 10pm-4am
many roads shut and rail lines closed
the river Trent predicted to peak 50 cm higher than in November but no where near the levels of autumn 2000
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Well I am in Nottingham and the last 4 hours have been quite biblical in terms of rainfall
loads of mini squalls and lines of convection dashing through
we are not far off an inch of rain in the last 4hrs
I think there are going to be some places suffering severe flooding tomorrow ( or even at the moment )
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Had about 2 hrs of heavy snow in north Nottingham
the whole city is gridlocked due to snow plus closure of the a52
1hr 30 mins to travel 2 miles thus far!
Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward
in Regional
Posted
The radar does look increasingly good. Shows the impact of -10 uppers over the North Sea and it bodes well for the next few days