kev238
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Posts posted by kev238
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Just now, Mucka said:
I really would ignore this GFS run. It will be different tonight because the chances of that trough developing in the same way and stalling over Scotland are less than 1% IMO
I have to agree as well. That trough won't be there in tonight's run and will totally change the charts ( in my opinion)
What is becoming clear is that there are many different options for next week post the initial cold wave on Sunday night / Monday morning
it doesn't feel as clear cut as a couple of days ago but a Messier picture might lead to more snow but less cold uppers
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I think there can now be quite high confidence in a bitter east wind next week starting late Sunday or early Monday
After that is up for grabs - lots of options with some more exciting than others
Last nights ECM was one possibility - this mornings another . It will stay cold but will it be cold and snowy is impossible to pin down at the moment
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Everything looks a bit messier this evening than it did this morning post Monday. However, messy could equal snowier.
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Well the GFS run isn't as much fun as the 6z run that is for sure. However, it still gets the cold easterly flow in Monday- Wednesday but then it all becomes a bit MEH after that .
The UKMO is a great run up to 144hrs. The ECM will be interesting later.
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Well we have the 3 models so far all on the same hymn sheet with deep cold arriving sometime between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning.
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Well I must be missing something with all this talk of backtracks .
From what I can see the GFS 6z was one of coldest and snowiest I have ever seen . Yes the deep cold lands on our shores about 12-18 hrs later but that is hardly a backtrack
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So there is now cross model agreement on a wall of cold heading west across Northern Europe
I know it's still 120-144 hrs away but the building blocks are in place Much earlier than that
Its going to get brutally cold I am sure of that - all these insane models plus a very snowy Met Office forecast
details of course unclear but the 26th Feb- 1st march look pretty exciting right now !
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The ECM has a cold pool out towards Russia with -28 air within it !
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Perhaps the consistency is because there is an overwhelming and unstoppable pattern here
it seems inevitable that there will be deep cold from the east. Whether it's convective or not will be based on the location of the high pressure but we seem in a good position atm
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This run is different early on from the ECM so that suggests caution needed ( but so much more fun and earlier so please let it be right!)
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I think the overwhelming size of the cold pool plus the scale of the blocking means we will have to be very unlucky to miss out on a significant cold spell !
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This feels like the real deal tbh. Cross model agreement on a very cold easterly flow seems nailed on. The type of easterly to be determined but it feels like it should be a fun easterly blast rather than those dull boring lifeless ones.
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The GFS mean for next Sunday is remarkable
There should be a high degree of confidence now on the week beginning 26.2.18 being pretty extreme cold wise - this would surely bring substantial snowfalls with it
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2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:
Granted, but as soon as it stops snowing and clouds clear the warmth from the Sun in March melts snow very quickly even if the air temperature is close to freezing.
The chart you post whilst referring to spring snow is actually in February which is clearly - granted only just- in Winter!
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Probably the best snow of winter in Nottingham
Even the latest euro 4 is woefully inaccurate ! The automated Met Office app decided to show heavy snow symbols about 20 mins before it started to actually snow heavily
I will definitely be looking more at the Icon model in the future!
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Well it looks like the push from the west will overcome the block to the east but there is still room for more of a fight from the block .
The colder zonal flow could deliver some exciting weather if it comes off as modelled . We definitely don't want to see the Azores High getting too close to the UK as that would spoil any potential fun weather
This unsettled cold type weather won't deliver epic ice days but heavy temporary falls of snow are definitely possible in favoured areas.
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There is no doubt ECM and GEm got in wrong - lots of praise about how consistent the latter was but that's no good when it's consistently wrong.
The GFS was also way off but there was far too much wishing for the ECM/GEM to be correct.
Personally , I was enjoying the cold westerly driven weather we had been experiencing and consider this interlude to be somewhat tiresome. Hopefully some active weather with a NW/SE jet resuming . What I fear is shaping up though is a milder second half of January with the more traditional SW/NE jet and a block to the east merely preventing anything interesting from occurring over us.
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Well there are so many changes in the near term at the moment that it is quite staggering. The GFS now has a vicious low pressure crossing the country tomorrow night- further south on this run and if it occurred then it would be a pretty devastating storm for central areas.
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Quite epic snowfall just to north of Gloucester. Not far off getting to curb level deepness.
Easily the heaviest snowfall I have seen in years. It looks like it could go for a fair while though if the intensity drops it could turn sleetier.
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About 5cm of snow in Gloucester. Huge flakes.. most unexpected down here.
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A full on snow storm in the north of Gloucestershire . The traffic map on the iPhone pretty much shows the areas copping it with orange showing slow moving traffic .
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I am not exaggerating when I say this is some of the heaviest snow I have seen in recent years. Everything white just north of Gloucester
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Well after hours of heavy rain, it turned sleety and then to heavy heavy snow a mile outside Gloucester city centre.
Amazingly it started to lay pretty quickly. Now it is white everywhere ! This at not much above 20 m above sea level.
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I guess this is all linked to precipitation intensity and is very difficult to model.
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I think the ECM will boost the morale in here but nothing has really changed beyond Monday . Hopefully this run is the way forward but the next run could revert back to a less exciting Wednesday - Friday ! Fingers crossed it won't !