Buzzit

Yes we did - good ol Boris... after seeing the rest of the output I think we should just cancel the Olympics completely Or at least I wonder why we spent so much money on an aquatics centre when they could of just held it outside...

Based on the GFS 12z OP you would probably want to cancel the opening ceremony, however, the preceeding warmth is extended in the South of the UK beforehand, and in my view there would be at least an equal chance at the moment, that the dry and warm weather in the south would extend further than Thursday 26th. (a bit of a nightmare for Exeter at the moment so I do not expect them to say much until next week - unless the Government has already called a Cobra Meeting haha)

NZ herald has a good detailed story : http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10820996

From my observations I have seen a pattern lately of the GFS 18z and 0z runs being more progressive in return to unsettled conditions for the UK vs the 6z and 12z respectively - not sure if anyone else has noticed this ?

Thought may be worth posting this from the Australia BOM Tropical Pacific remains close to El Niño thresholds Issued on Tuesday 17 July The past fortnight has seen climate indicators ease slightly, with all showing values near the threshold for an El Niño event. While indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), sea surface temperatures and trade winds have eased over the past two weeks, such short-term fluctuations are common and to be expected, and indicators still clearly remain near El Niño thresholds. Over the last few months, observations have been trending toward El Niño. This is consistent with most model forecasts indicating that the tropical Pacific may approach or exceed El Niño thresholds sometime during the late southern winter or spring 2012. Some models indicate only borderline El Niño conditions may occur, but none suggest a return of La Niña. During El Niño events, large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier than normal during winter and spring, while southern Australian daytime temperatures tend to be warmer. However, El Niño does not guarantee widespread dry conditions. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Outlooks from POAMA, the Bureau’s climate model, indicates neutral IOD conditions for the remainder of winter and spring. Other notes Climate Models: Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau, predict that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to reach El Niño thresholds sometime between late winter and spring 2012. However, many of the surveyed models continue to indicate that there is a strong possibility that the event will remain marginal (i.e. on the boundary between warm-neutral and weak El Niño conditions), and not develop further by the end of the year. Southern Oscillation Index: The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen over the past two weeks, and has been hovering near at, or just shy of, threshold El Niño values for most of the last week. The latest (15 July) 30-day SOI value is −6.3. Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.

Gloom and Doom on here this morning (I find unwarranted). to my mind the GFS 6z OP looks much better than what some of the comments here would indicate, and since when did any of the models have a good / consistent handle on FI ? Lets wait for the high pressure to arrive saturday / sunday and then see where we go ? I would also note that heights to our North have lowered further and the jetstream has also decreased further on the 6z OP

Quote from ACM "Me not notice, me too busy eating high pressure cookies before they escape the Atlantic"

The GFS 18z Op is showing us an Atlantic Cookie Monster (I think its going off on one) but what would Grover know ?

The 0z ECM and UKMO both suggested the low feature and both had it passing harmlessly to the south of the UK (hence why it is represented on the referenced fax chart) would need at least another day or so to have a better idea of this feature.... Its probably not a bad assisting feature to the overall evolution to slightly better weather for most of the UK as long as it keeps to its current track....

I find it interesting that the GFS ensembles for London go from this on the 0z To this on the 6z And back to a lot less scatter on the 12z up to the 21st July Looks like next weekends weather will tell us a lot about where we are heading weather wise

A google search would give you the information without me pointing you to it - but in any case http://www.fao.org/docrep/012/i0680e/i0680e.pdf

It has previously been proposed in NZ, USA, Estonia. And the UN has suggested a fart tax in some of its research papers. Australia now has a carbon tax (both pre and post farm emissions are considered, though on farm methane emissions was only left out due to difficulty of measurement.)

GW : There is nothing wrong with acknowledging your convictions and informing others of such. You are not hurting anyone by doing so.. honour yourself by honouring your convictions in a constructive way. Start a website, collect information, distribute, no harm in that but you need to have a thick skin, as anyone does when they put themselves above the parapet

Ha Ha... But seriously, I still refer back to my point that if we cannot say for certainty what the weather will be two weeks in advance then I will treat the data and conclusions drawn with a degree of scepticism... That does not mean for one second that I think human activities such as deforrestation, or oil shale mining are acceptable. But niether do I think regulation based on cow farts is acceptable either.

I would suggest we have been in a relatively precautionary state for some time (at least since the banning of CFCs) I would ask at what point does precautionary become conservative / laissez faire / or reactionary... By determining these threshold points as a society or global village we will be able to move the debate forward (or be stuck in a roadblock)

For the heralds of climate change, the worst thing that happened was allowing climate change to be referred to as global warming... It will take decades to win back the publics trust if ever because of it. At the same time using climate change does not work either as most people think the weather changes all the time so what's new and is simply a throw away term to enable carbon taxes and the like (money grabbing governments) once global warming didn't work If we knew with certainty what the weather would be in two weeks time then I think people would listen more and I don't think it's a individualistic vs communitarian issue

July 6th, 2012 I know that many journalists who lived through the recent heat wave in the East think the event somehow validates global warming theory, but I’m sorry: It’s summer. Heat waves happen. Sure, many high temperature records were broken, but records are always being broken. And the strong thunderstorms that caused widespread power outages? Ditto. Regarding the “thousands†of broken records, there are not that many high-quality weather observing stations that (1) operated since the record warm years in the 1930s, and (2) have not been influenced by urban heat island effects, so it’s not at all obvious that the heat wave was unprecedented. Even if it was the worst in the last century for the Eastern U.S. (before which we can’t really say anything), there is no way to know if it was mostly human-caused or natural, anyway. “But, Roy, the heat wave is consistent with climate model predictions!â€. Yeah, well, it’s also consistent with natural weather variability. So, take your pick. For the whole U.S. in June, average temperatures were not that remarkable. Here are the last 40 years from my population-adjusted surface temperature dataset, and NOAA’s USHCN (v2) dataset (both based upon 5 deg lat/lon grid averages; click for large version): Certainly the U.S drought conditions cannot compare to the 1930s. I really tire of the media frenzy which occurs when disaster strikes…I’ve stopped answering media inquiries. Mother Nature is dangerous, folks. And with the internet and cell phones, now every time there is a severe weather event, everyone in the world knows about it within the hour. In the 1800s, it might be months before one part of the country found out about disaster in another part of the country. Sheesh. From - http://www.drroyspencer.com/

The current heatwave duration in the USA was last seen in the 1930s, with 1936 being the worst year. though the temperature was slightly less the duration was the same. Climate Change was hardcore in the 1930s... dont see any 5 sigma evidence from these worthless reports.

Agreed. Personally I think the Met is indicating the likelihood of a N/S split, people have to remember that the outlook is for "the UK as a whole" and I do not see any model output at the current time indicating UK wide constant summer sunshine. Perhaps the weather Gods will grant London a sunny Olympics at everyone elses cost. (Just one more cost to taxpayers ) Latest output does indicate the continued presence of low pressure incoming from the west, but with a change to a more SW/NE tilt.

The GFS18z OP run continues its FI trend towards more settled weather. If it pans out I will have to start playing "I'm a Believer" on high rotation haha

Yes it is, And i do not know why they dont just say - "we don't know what the weather will be in a months time" rather than the bucketload of drivvel they get written by what appears to be the Prime Minister's speech writer - I can hear it now, DC stands up in the Commons and says "It is right that we provide the public with a 30 day outlook even if that outlook is not giving an outlook because that is what the outlook is and it is right that the public be informed". And on a separate point, John is also right, because there is still the best part of a third of summer left at the end of the current Met outlook period, so to suggest "summer is over" is the normal tosh we get in here without any supporting evidence provided. personally i think there is still every chance of a warm final third of summer. Deep FI output has been improving of late - Todays 12z provides more encouragement.

One thing that springs to mind looking at the latest GFS ensembles is that the 850 temps for London show little scatter between the ensemble members over the next week... Situation normal, Low pressure is certainly not going anywhere in a hurry.

No that was my one and only stir... - Now I am trying to write something supporting your efforts to do a storm chase with other people - but it keeps ending up reading like a double entendre so i will just leave it at that - don't be discouraged

the benefits of cable always shine through during a storm... I just hope I get some myself !

Indeed - the hot spot will be wherever you end up chasing