Buzzit

Not disgreeing with you - but my point is that anything post +60 is subject to change at the moment - and any change could be marked downstream. Even looking at the 6z to 12x GFS the greenland high is stronger... I do not see it being weakened and disclocated in the way it is currently being reflected by the models.

Hello All, As far as I am concerned FYI is currently +60. the reason I say that is that as far as I am concerned the Greenland high is still up for debate as to how it will move and how strong it will stay. There is a lot of difference between UKMO / ECM and GFS and until that resolves we will not know what pattern we will head into - stay positive folks

Didn't realise he was so into the magnetosphere - wonder how much Croydon council are spending on their research into gritting and the magnetosphere Do miss Yamkin ramps

JP thanks for the fax chart analysis as usual ! We need to get you some heating to warm your heart a little bit - Or some medicinal spirits Everyone has to remember that we all have good and bad days mood wise - and sometimes it is wise to avoid those things that are getting you down, if only to recharge the spirit a little bit. I just went in the model thread and had to leave not because I was upset with the charts (nothing wrong for the SE that's for sure) but because the mood coming through in the posts is bordering on a form of nasty depression. In fact, I think if the board was looked over by a psychologist they would suggest an angry mob mentality coming through - its the sort of thing that kicks off riots from nothing - only takes one post to do it.... And people keep dipping in there to feed a narcissistic need when 80% of the posts are not model discussion but about what models are showing for IMBY and whether they like it or not - big fat waste of time and not helping anyone better understand or enjoy the discovery of learning and appreciating the models and how far they have come and how far our own understanding has come. As I say - I think the models are promising for the SE and we all have to remember that we cannot know the weather for certain in three days time let alone 5 or 10 or 14 so don't treat anything as gospel and make your own judgements from learning and sharing and experience. I really hope tomorrow nights meet up goes well ! Have a great time everyone Steve

If only we could find a way to harness the energy of the model forum - free hot air for all problem solved - jesting a bit of course....

I do weather updates all year for my work colleagues etc one of them recently added to the distro - put the basic iPhone weather app in front of me today trying to tell me what the weather was going to be - LOL - I let them off gently...

JP thanks for the update - not surprised re position and speed of current low as rain radar and satellite representation were indicating a slower movement and slightly different orientation than progged even at 6pm... Can't wait for a whole weeks worth of now casting....

Would expect so - and you only have to look at location to see where the moaners are

Call me crazy but I am still hopeful of some of the white stuff tomorrow morning in the SE - we may even get a dry period between the SW and NE rain bands which I do not think would hurt - little bit of straw clutching but no toys and pram throwing like the crazies in the model thread

Models are having difficulty with this evenings events - precipitation and location is already out of whack by +3 on the GFS and NAE 12z

Looking at the start of the GFS and NAE 12z runs I think there is already a lot of doubt on what will happen. Precipitation is already stronger and more East than what either model show for Today 3pm. If the models cannot get 3 hours ahead correct precipitation wise then I still believe there is all to play for in the SE overnight

He Did

In my opinion the 12z GEFS mean is better than this mornings 6z. Nothing concerning me with respect to the long range at this stage... Future output will be looking a lot different come the weekend. I believe the models are still fidling with the key in the door at the moment.

Y Fronts ? couldn't resist

Yes Anglia was covered in snow chance for tomorrow morning over East Anglia / Essex (when you open up the picture there is a save icon in the lower right which will open it again but enable you to save as a picture) With respect to Friday I find this interesting - So yes although nothing showing on the short range models - I would say there is a chance - we have to wait and see

http://www.gismeteo....ity/weekly/744/ The link is a Russian site with two week forecast for London - I quite like it for comparison sake (15th december 2012) Weather characteristics, atmospheric phenomena Air temp., °C Atm. pressure, mmHg Wind, m/s Humidity, % Real feel, °C Night Cloudy, snow −1 761 NE 4 87 −4 Morning Cloudy, light rain +2 762 E 4 87 0 Day Cloudy, light rain +5 761 E 4 87 +3 Evening Cloudy, snow +1 761 SE 5 88 −2

That was the 00z the 6z is as per below (still all to play for but dont want people to think the situation has improved since last run)

I always have a quiet chuckle to myself when someone calls it Formula One It is definitely Fantasy Island - which is the perfect description with respect to the UK and thinking that what a model shows at +144 etc will be exactly what happens on a land mass as small as the UK with the Atlantic on one side and Europe on the other.... We still have difficulty forecasting to 3 days accurately of course, so if you do not want to hurt your head I recommend sticking to current to +96 as it is also easier to learn with. The ensembles for your location will give you an idea of the current trend (but trend is never locked in stone)

I got some friends round to help me turn on my snow machine - can't guarantee it will be able to deliver in time with all this new fangled technology - but here's hoping !

Hi All Just like to point out the slightly different treatment of events on the 5th December according to todays GFS and NAE 6z

As expected - the modelling of the atlantic lows on the GFS 18z has changed further still (and will continue to do so) with the initial low pressure remaining south of the UK and the second one intensifying more than the last run. As the low has now initialised I am now placing FI at +72 on the GFS 18 GMT 11/30/12 24.8N 42.9W (speed)25 (pressure)1012 Invest 91L

These atlantic lows showing on the GFS are FI material. The initial one has already lowered in intensity as opposed to yesterdays GFS and also todays 6z output, I do not see them happening in the form that the GFS is showing at all : FI still at +48 for me, especially as these lows have so much impact on the pattern to follow.

Personally I am treating FI at +48 - anything specifics after that is a guestimate in my opinion, and even then I am sceptical of the extent of the deepening of the low off the coast of Canada in the next 24 hours - and I am certainly sceptical of the strength of the forming atlantic low over the next few days.

The amount of times a big fat greenie 1030+ high appears and disappears on the GFS 12z op run in FI is rediculous and implausible in my eyes - I am consigning it to the waste bin... overall trend still looks good for cold lovers after discounting for the implausibility of the actual specifics of the GFS 12z FI charts

Hi All Trying to stay away from cold / snow posting at the moment as I don't think I can take a full seasons worth in here haha Just want to make a point about the GFS ensembles (focused on London) Last nights 18z ensembles showed quite a lot of divergence between the ensemble mean and the control / op on the 850s from 1-4 December This mornings 6z shows much better agreement between the ensemble mean, control & op for 1-4 December For my own sanity during winter I tend to start FI from the point of this 850 divergence IMBY Overall I dont see anything wrong with charts like these for this time of year - we are certainly going to start December with well below average temperatures for time of year.