Buzzit

Hello I believe the model output is indicating a more likely snow event for Yorkshire north, South of Yorkshire seems to be continuing to slowly downgrade. However this is all in FI so this can obviously change and I think there is far too much uncertainty in the models +72 that nothing is certain. Even with the blips in the ECM lately it is still the most accurate model, and based on the fact that the synoptics are so unusual for this time of the year in relation to recent winters, I think we all need to take a chill pill and wait and see what happens. I still favour the accuracy of the ECM, though I also think ECM (and every other model) is likely to change significantly over the next three days. I am sure that the month of December 2009 will go down in model analysis folklore and there is no certain outcome as yet Mods : Perhaps you can introduce a technical model thread that you have to 'sign up' to join, which will make it easier for you to ban people from it if they are off topic. I want a easy to find model discussion thread, not 16 different model discussion threads (excuse the hyperbole) Thanks

Hi All I for one would like to give thanks to the mods on here - it cant be easy ! Can I make a suggestion that this thread (and previous model output threads from the last couple of weeks) get pinned so that over time we can all pour through the discussion and get a really good idea of what is and has occurred ? As the synoptics etc are so unusual as compared to recent years I feel it would be a fantastic teaching tool in due course if someone can analyse and build some sort of teaching model after the event Just a thought - thanks everyone for your posts !

I was going to say Wrecking Ball In any case I was happy at 2AM this morning with the NOGAPS which gave so much agreement amongst the models of yesterday into FI at a timerange that I feel is reliable that I was just very happy that a definite cold spell was on the way

And the NOGAPS is looking good ! better than previous, with more reach around now I can go to bed not worrying about waking up to a shock now :smiliz19:

In the North Island at the moment is a great example of a thunderstorm band meeting up with a stationary torrential rain front http://www.metservice.co.nz/national/maps-rain-radar/rain-radar/all-nz-rain-last-6-hrs

Nope I was thinking next year myself

Headline : Mixed Bag end of winter looking nastyArticle Tone : Not ConfidentDecember : Temp (normal), Rainfall (above average), Snow (below average) * One std cold snapJanuary : Temp (above average), Rainfall (below average), Snow (below average) * No cold snapsFebruary : Temp (below average), Rainfall (average), Snow (average) * One significant cold snapMarch : Temp (way below average), Rainfall (average), Snow (way above average) * Awful

Hello, very longtime lurker and love this site immensly. Based on this evenings posts I felt I had to finally register an account and share with you the following link http://market-ticker...Leak-FLASH.html http://www.investiga...latestissue.pdf http://wattsupwithth...files-released/

Hello, very longtime lurker and love this site immensly. Based on this evenings posts I felt I had to finally register an account and share with you the following link http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1648-Global-Warming-SCAM-HackLeak-FLASH.html http://www.investigatemagazine.com/australia/latestissue.pdf http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/19/breaking-news-story-hadley-cru-has-apparently-been-hacked-hundreds-of-files-released/