Buzzit

I share your pain and whinge This weeks weather will be a bit like playing the lottery I think...

Hi All I dont see why we can put much faith in any of the models at the moment apart from a very generalised trend - perhaps the reason comments have decreased on this forum is because there does not appear any point to doing so at the moment.. Whats the point on commenting on FI when there has been zero consistancy in the models week to week. Model verification although high in the short term (3 day) has been particularly worse than usual in the longer time frames (out to 7 day) and reinforces the view that some members hold with regards to post +72 conversations. In addition i think that splitting the technical and general model output discussion has probably done more harm than good as it has given more airtime to rampers, winders, and moaners on this thread. I think they should be put back together again and the mods should take a much harder stance on what gets posted on the resulting thread (its not like more than half of the technical thread gets posted in here anyway...) I also assume that the NMM is based on the data from GFS, which is fine but you take a look at the NMM forecast for right now versus the radar... and I ask if the variance can be so horribly wrong... then there is not much to have faith in at the moment... apart from general trend (ie. LP will eventually head south) I dont see the point in any specifics for next week. I have renewed respect for the difficulties the Meto face...

I repeat as previously that the NAE and NMM have been out of sorts this week. Often they have been wide of the mark by the +12 timeframe and with the current model headaches and chop / changes I dont expect that to change By all means get start to get excited if its within +6 but double check the radar first

Please take the NAE and NMM with a little pinch of salt - they have been very wide of the mark by +12 all week and with the current model headaches and chop / changes I dont expect that to change By all means get excited if its within +6 but by then you will see it on the radar

** Also posted in model thread ** At this point I have to say I have been following the NAE and NMM and in my opinion they have been rubbish this week Getting precipitation completely wrong even by the time the data is released. Very poor. Goes to show how uncertain the actualities are at the moment

At this point I have to say I have been following the NAE and NMM and in my opinion they have been rubbish this week Getting precipitation completely wrong even by the time the data is released. Very poor. Goes to show how uncertain the actualities are at the moment

NMM run is only 36hours, so currently only showing till Midnight Tuesday At which time it is showing entrenched -7 uppers , 0/-1 dewpoint (actually 2 in the extreme SE but I expect that to change tomorrow) and a significant band of precip heading our way Model is updated a 5am, 11am, 5pm, 11pm so doubt I will update on this again until tomorrow morning (where I expect to have better news to report)

Yes its like a family squabble where one person always has to be right and another always has to have the last word.. Utter nonsense and is great to be back in the relative sanity of the London and SE Thread By the way - I see snow showers for a few more hours tonight and based on model output and NMM I think wednesday is looking more tasty for snow lovers than is currently expected

LOL Were you looking for some laminate flooring after Joe B.stardi Didnt know about the text change eh ? Made my day in a wierd way.. Radar shows another batch of possible snow coming through London (from the east) in about half an hour

Netweather NNM shows falling as snow from midnight (this has been showing as snow from midnight tonight consistantly since yesterday morning)

Hello TEITS The 6Z NMM shows the chance of a brief flurry for Peterborough around midnight tonight (is better then the 0Z for your area) However when considering 12am Monday to 12pm Monday Line is definitely more Norwich / Cambridge than Kings Lynn / Peterborough Which i find consistant with some of the recent model output

I got on to the L&SE thread a couple of minutes ago - just seems to be responding randomly....

Hello All I note the NMM is showing a bit of snow about on Sunday night.. What is the % accuracy of the NMM or should it only be considered +12 / +24 ? Thanks

I understand your point Leigh, and it is not the first time this winter that a similar occurence has happened with the GFS However the logic is slightly messed up in that now all the other days it showed something different wont verify.... So is it actually any more accurate than any other model ? Probably Not... Does it seem to pick up on things other models do not in FI at times ? Yes but that is not a logical indicator that the GFS is more accurate than other models My own view is I am glad that we all have the GFS, primarily because the more models we have the better, but I also like seeing 'Fools Gold' in FI (which GFS seems to do more than any other model at the moment) and then enjoy the occasional pot at the end of the rainbow when it comes off...

To me the following frames some up the situation (which if you love snow how could you ask for more ?)

Fantastic weldone to everyone involved looking well worth the (extra) wait

Hello All Have been reading the various comments on here and keeping note The end of the 12Z GFS run is a monster , I dont think the UK could cope with that output. I have to add that we are in exactly the same position we were in during the first cold spell of this winter where x amount of people thought something would happen and x wouldnt (no change there) In case somebody is running through the thread and scratching their head the following may translate as a three point update 1) There will be a northerly this weekend 2) there will be a period of more mild weather next week 3) For the last few days there has been the makings of an easterly showing in FI However it has remained in FI and continues to backdate, though it certainly is a recurring theme in the various model output, and synoptics continue to become more favourable to the idea of an easterly without confirming it

Weather Online have a facility Historic Temps

Im now going to take note of how many posters state FI begins in 72hrs (based on GFS 18z)

To qualify to tender you need to have an annual income in excess of £10 million so i think netweather is out With respect to the most bandied about competitor to the MetO , can they really do a worse job ? I know this will raise the heckles but the NZD is a lot cheaper than the £ so I expect the tender will likely be highlighting pound for dollar an even better service than currently provided... (and updated ledgible graphics) And lets not carried away here, if the MetO does loose the contract they will still have a role within the new provider it would be rediculous not to...

The Seagull rule is as follows (actually applies to almost all seabirds) 1) Everything is fine if they spend most of their time offshore 2) If they are just offshore huddled in groups it generally means wind / storm 3) If they are inland it generally means that conditions are already bad or going to get worse from the direction they are inland from

Hello, Has anyone else noticed that as at 5pm yeaterday there were 580 earthquakes registered in the california region in the last 7 days. Right now that number has dropped to apx 550 with a few of the 5 & 6 earthquakes dropped off Extremely unusual volume of earthquakes which I also put down in part to the recent eclipse. Recent earthquakes California

Good night all - If I dont get at least a couple of hours sleep the wife is bound to cause some trouble Take Care Edit : Happy Snowdaze

Welcome Jamie, yes the only people up in this thread are the sad ones who havent got much snow (relative to elsewhere) so far However I did have the pleasure to spend Christmas in Forres (Scotland) and New Years in newcastle so in reality Ive had mountains of snow over Christmas / new Year (to the point my parents in law lost their guttering) Just not seen much at home

I agree on all of your points sno - here in Twickenham roofs are lightly covered and the grass has gone a lighter shade of pale all good signs The NW Radar has not been working properly all night ie. Much earlier the future radar got stuck between 9.45-10.30pm and now current stuck at 2.35am Sigh.. even with nobody from the SE on the site still has problems I think you have a few hours to go