Buzzit

I also agree with OldMetman and others.... In my own turn of phrase : There is no law against making a predicative forecast of the weather There is no law against not wishing to share a theory in depth There is no law against choosing not to get worked up about whether a forecast verifies at 50-70-100% Just leave the guy alone and lets see what turns up, at least its something a little different, something we can all follow, and to my mind at least more interesting than listening to most of the waffle in the model output forum. I would love to see responders in the model output forum also draw their own charts for a distant point in time and see how well they do compared to MB , RJS , etc... RJS - I know you also forecast weather a long time ahead and have spent many years working on it, I appreciate your thoughts in the various forums on Netweather - but, in the case of this thread, it is probably best to let this one go... as you say...

Or the "Polar Vortex Factor" But seriously the concept of the analyst only thread is great - but it also requires a certain level of commitment and quality of post from its members. I personally dont care if posting in the analyst only thread is infrequent but I do care if it is a one paragraph blah post

Getting there

Live news stream working in UK http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/ Just listened to a local met forecaster who only parroted the statement the met put out at 12am couldnt even give an update said wait for th enew release at 8am - typical Current peaks around Brisbane are higher than expected but not by much - however the main dam is loosing the battle and planning to release 638,000 megalitres today A lot of water !

About 3hrs 30 flight time Auckland to Brisbane (think he was in Auckland) and yes, definitely a "domestic" flight Nine News Has some interesting raw video and news reports http://news.ninemsn.com.au/video.aspx?videoid=C695A08D-81FC-461F-B7CC-5DD3AC6F1438

A great idea - best wishes to all involved

If it is proven to be broadly correct over time it will be a particular bonus to Paul and the storm chasers

Hello MB, Thanks for taking the time to post at NW and provide your February 2011 storm forecast. To my uncultured mind I cannot fathom how the weather could not be cyclical in nature, though likely having multiple miny cycles coexisting within a supercycle, the interaction of which at any given point in time provides a template for a method of determining weather synoptics. hence weather been chaotic, but also deterministic... However I do believe that volcanoes and tsunamis do have an ability to modify an existing mini cycle based on strength, so that a forecast made could be horribly off if such an event were to occur after a forecast was made. I think human nature makes us think we can eventually 'control' the weather, but it would be much better if we tried to understand it first I will continue to watch your posts and thought processes with interest regards Buzzit

BFTP does your forecast have something to do with the moon north declination peak on the 20th, the winter solstice total lunar eclipse on the 21st and the lunar perigee on the 25th and the moons southward crossing of the celestial equator on the 26th ? In lunar terms the energy in this is enormous...

Thanks John - Great for learners and thankfully free of subjective symantics

http://www.nasa.gov/145590main_Digital_Media.asx Havent been watching though and i dont have sound so cant tell whats going on doh !

I must also thank SS for the refreshing pragmatism on the GW front

Good Luck to you and all of your colleagues Ian - Internal HR moves are never the easiest thing so I hope it passes as smoothly as possible for you all without undue acrimony

Yes and we all paid however many £000,s for some idiot HR media twit to write that piece of fluff By the time the media propoganda is over they probably could of all stayed presenting for less than the cost of the press releases

About 10cm of snow has fallen in Southland in the last 24 hours. Lots of power outages and road closures throughout both islands...

Hello, Thought I would update on the strom currently traversing NZ. Is fairly unusual. There is a very large extratropical storm trending below NZ at the moment but also bring winds up to 157km across parts of NZ (both Islands) Updated maps as follows :

Looking very interesting for the far north http://www.sat24.com/

I agree with Richard Too many commentators here seem to have been getting unduly pessimistic reading Glacier Points posts in the techincal thread and getting caught up with the long range forecast from the weather... The models are returning to what they forecast late May (example SE reaching 22-25 every day) and this trend will continue throughout June and rain is quite welcome as it limits the uncomfortableness for many people caused by a long stretch of hot weather And judging by latest ensembles FI is 4 days in any case

I always say that UK weather follows NZ weather and my extended family having been loving a long Auckland barbeque summer. so now waiting for the UK to get the flow on

Due to the location of relevant tremor monitors they do generally pick up on activity from surrounding areas... I think this link is the best for getting a true idea of the tremors since eruption (and yes you can see how tremors are picked up similarly at the monitoring stations in surrounding areas) Tremors since eruption From other sites the consensus view is there is definitely something else happening, possibly the movement of deeper magma towards the surface. An earlier idea that the eruption itself was nearing an end seems to be completely rejected now. EDIT : The lower frequency tremors (red line) are possibly indicative of the idea of rising magma Especially as having increased over the higher frequency tremors in an extended duration

The WMC model is the "World Meteorological Centre Moscow" usually the only part of the 'world' their charts may be useful for is Moscow.. as the have a generally useless accuracy rate for UK / France etc That is apart from when yamkin is trying to keep our spirits up....

Hello All Looks like London might be chasing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow again... still hopeful of a snow event soon ! Can anyone help me with a question ? I notice that the precipitation type on the NW radar is slightly different when looking at UK vs Euro (ie. Euro shows snow often where UK shows rain or sleet) and was wondering which one is more accurate ?

Hello All Based off this GFS run it looks like Tuesday is the day we find out whether the SW's start to take a foothold in the South

I have stated this a few times in the last month and I will state it again With the current synoptics and variability in model output the NMM and NAE are not worth the computer processing time they take up. For instance compare the current NMM for 2pm today with actual temperatures - generally the NMM is a minimum 3c higher than actuals across the UK. Precipitation is also slightly misplaced, which over time will also have a considerable negative impact vs actual evolution Brickfielder : I think you have given a very good reasoned analysis of the NMM data for tomorrow as it exists - However I think the actual will be entirely different due to the frankly quite poor nature of the data

Unfortunately the Rugby Union frown on me using the lights for snow monitoring Though the lights that surround the hotel (now built into the stadium) are very good