Buzzit

I share your pain...

Anyone bored waiting for snow here is a very rough "will it snow" calculator My link

Yeah well you have seen enough snow already this season

Dont know whats going on with the NW radar - NE Scotland currently showing 29642mph winds LOL

Tell me about it - I refuse to go to bed until I get some dam snow - even if it takes all night !

Hello All Just a thought - there is a very significant solar eclipse happening on the 15th January and it has a wide arc through Eastern Europe, China, both Poles etc (but not UK or Western Europe) as there is evidence that an eclipse does create changes in local climate conditions, and based on the scope of the eclipse it could throw some strange changes into the model mix after the event - Im sure global models take absolutely no account of eclipses and as a result I will also be loathe to trust models based on output from the 15th.

I take your point but Im trying to say lets look at %s based on what we have already experienced this winter. Not a certainty but historical data has some merit.

As I mentioned yesterday but nobody replied to my knowledge I think March will feature a lot of disturbed weather and I expect March to be worse than February Look at historical cold years and see how February and March pan out Is probably more use than looking at normal model output as they are not 'programmed' for this sort of winter

well its rain in twickenham - we always miss out

Hi All I have also poste dthis on the model thread.. (just wondering if anyone here might know ?) Watching the NW 5min radar today I have noticed precip basically coming from NE/ NEE However everytime I go to the NW Future Radar it is pushing the precip up from the S (which obviously is not happening) Usually i note the future radar sort of follows the 700 vectors but wondering what is the reason for the future radar been 'out of sorts' today ? Thanks to everyone for the comments on the models at the moment - I myself see another week of cold at least, though I was previously looking at a mid Jan break for a few days.. and I have a feeling that March will be an execptionally disturbed month for us all (wondering what March precip rates have been following years with significant winter cold spells)

I to share your pain, the amount of time snow seems to dissapate over TW1 fustrates me immensley Though there is always a 0.000005% chance something may happen this weekend

Hi All I know its not model related but dont know where to raise this question Watching the NW 5min radar today I have noticed precip basically coming from NE/ NEE However everytime I go to the NW Future Radar it is pushing the precip up from the S (which obviously is not happening) Usually i note the future radar sort of follows the 700 vectors but wondering what is the reason for the future radar been 'out of sorts' today ?

Not a scrap in SW London - but I am giving it 30 more minutes - is starting to look promising for at least a dusting before I finally go to sleep Much better chance tommorow night for the westies And then the dusting arrives

Just to clarify I was referring to the MetO severe weather warning - at the current time on their website London and SW has been reduced from orange to yellow with regards to % chance of severe weather which I think is wrong.

Hello everyone Im not convinced by the MetO severe weather % downgrades for areas London and SW of... Looking at the wind vectors and synoptics there are multiple paths of which snow could arrive and slight changes in the Vectors can make a huge difference to the snow path. Without question the SE will see snow over the next couple of days, but I also think London and SW London are not 'out of the woods' yet

Very strange Thanks for the info ! Just started a bit of sleet in twickers but enough ground snow that I dont think will matter to much, the new pcp band just exiting the channel looks good for here so Im sure your niece will wake up to a layer of snow with a reasonable depth... Cheers *** strike that back to snow already ***

Hello Sno - My mother lives by Ladbroke grove, have you got a dusting layer or any accumulation ? Here in twickenham certainly have a couple of cm on the ground with the bonus that we are looking like we will stay in the snow band for some time to come... Thanks

TEITS - As usual I agree with you, however I also have a feeling that we could see a lot more snow than expected over the next 24hrs due to the extremely unusual weather synoptics. For instance depending on where and how long it takes the replacement low to get its act together we could end up with a very slow moving system dumping a lot more snow than is expected at the current time. As mentioned by others much more knowledgable than me - I expect all areas to get at least a little of the laying snow experience by the weekend Everyone please be considerate of those more needy than yourself and whatever you do - dont go on a cross country car trip for a few days at least

TEITS I agree with you - not because Im in West London , but because analysis of the radar alongside the latest GFS points to it I expect further MetO severe weather upgrades this afternoon By the way - thanks in general for your posts

I felt exposed without my radar But I must say that it goes to show just how great a job Netweather is doing ! (Im sure your all driking champagne and celebrating the increased traffic and subscibers... :lol:)

Snow in central london now Im right by Bank of England

Hi All, Just theorising... It would be a coup for the new op GFS if it has nailed it out to Saturday Would certainly cause a few issues for UKMO & ECM funders if the ECM was also to side with the latest UKMO... However Im only about 50% positive on the details of the run past Friday UKMO seems a bit safe during the same period... (if that is the right expression) in any case I would hate to be having to make a decision at the METO about how to call it now... all eyes towards tonights fax charts me think

TEITS Do you think that may be because John is expecting a very slack easterly flow into the south over the next couple of days ? Perhaps not even really getting across the channel as previously expected ?

Hi All Thanks for the FI interpretations but I really cant see anything beyond the end of my nose (+72) Im not sure the models are currently seeing past +72 either, too many unusual variables.... In general I feel the models are preprogrammed to accept certain variables more than others etc (the weighting factor) which is why we rely on people rather than models. I know we talk about models breaking patterns etc too quickly in FI. But I also wonder whether at the closer timeperiods do the models also throw a wobbly if they see patterns they are not programmed to expect ? (Some form of built in bias even at shorter ranges ?) I feel a deep set cold is on the cards until 2010. Too much momentum around the pole for their not to be... Thanks

Seriously : If anyone mentions the term "rollercoaster" one more time I might blow a fuse Its not a rollercoaster, Im not sure why some on here are expecting agreement from all the models all of the time and for that to be then set in stone. If it was the case then we would only need check the forecast every couple of weeks to know what was going to happen - pretty boring ! As mentioned previously the ECM seems to have gotten over its previous blip and from what I can tell it is the most likely output at the moment. I dont think anyone can say for sure that there is any model agreement +72 the synoptics are highly unusual as compared to recent years and we have yet to see any proof in relation to the UK that any of the models can deal with the UK accurately (above 85%) on an ongoing basis during winter months. The UK is an island and not a big one, as such under the current conditions any new model run is going to change the evolution, I expect this to happen every day for the next week at least. It is safe to say we are in for a cold spell, which is unusual for this time of year in consideration of recent years. There is just as much enjoyment to be had on focusing on +48 to plus +96 let alone going way out in FI. I dont believe any of the current models have aced this period and it is all up in the air. I for one am very thankful of the excellent considered posts from the members on here that take the time to care and explain themselves in ways that make sense to the rest of us. Man cant place all trust in machines just yet