Buzzit

Current MJO output is currently looking positive and condusive to assisting with the % probability of summer weather for the UK. UK Met is currently wanting to reduce amplification and revert back to Phase 1 more quickly and may a general part indicator of why the UK Met output is at odds with GFS and ECM at the end of the output we see ECM GFS UKM

Hi Mushy - it is the same chart source but there is variation in the output. ie. the newer version I posted does not have the green line going into phase 3 whereas your posted one did, and yes it would be very welcome to see the MJO getting out away from 1st gear and into 3rd seems to be getting caught at far too many traffic lights...

I see a slightly different MJO... would like to be as positive as you - but not doing and almost every other MJO output does not go to 3 including the UKMA MJO which is a horror show http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml The NCEP GEFS I see is attached below

In my view there is not even hopium in the 6z ensembles that the rest of July will offer anything in the way of warm and pleasant weather. On a seperate note, i really feel sorry for GP getting the summer long range forecast so wrong, I hope he finds something in the data which points to the missed link/s and finds the confidence to keep at it.

Hello All With the GFS op run not looking great I thought it would be a good time to share the NCEP ensemble products and the great 'training' page they have provided to assist with better understanding of the output. Even though the training page is old the data is up to date showing the weather to remain average or below average for the foreseeable... http://www.weather.gov/nuopc/index6.shtml http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/spotlight/12012001/

In addition I would say that the daily difference in output after the 8th of July in this run looks to me like it has got tired of processing the data and gone off on one On the 10-12th every 6am has 1024 over greenland and every 6pm has 1018 with quite different isobars - seems strange to me ?

I do have to laugh a little - GFS op progs a current temperature for Heathrow of 11c feeling like 12c when the current temperature is 17c

Take a look at the lightning around the Spanish coast and hopefully heading our way You can also see the cloud tops bubble up in the satellite http://www.sat24.com/?culture=en Or for those who read this later http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

Yes is OK , besides, breaking through the CIN makes for a better storm

GFS 18z op much more like the 6z , according to the GFS op it seems that if the low tracks to the NE of the UK then that will bring a much higher chance of a general pattern / weather change than if the low stays anchored to the west of the UK which results in the atlantic westerlies continuing. Myself am hoping for the low to proceed NE than hang around because I want some summer but I am not a weather god

Im not sure about the 6 & 12z op runs - mainly because there is so much difference between them come Sunday. They almost mirror until midnight Saturday and then you see this change (about 400 miles of change !) 6z to 12z One of these has to be wrong and Im not having any of the 12z yet... (yes I know the story about matching run to run vs same runs)

Was just going to post exactly the same message and link - cheers

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/earthquakesvolcanos/major-eruption-of-nabro-volcano-in-eritrea/19983.html A couple of good picks - calling Nabro over Dubbi

This eruption could really throw global weather patterns for a six , especially as the ash heads towards the atlantic and traverses where atlantic convection originates from. http://earthquake-report.com/2011/06/12/unusual-series-of-moderate-volcanic-earthquakes-in-eritrea-and-ethiopia/

This eruption could really throw global weather patterns for a six , especially as the ash heads towards the atlantic and traverses where atlantic convection originates from.

I hate the Met office ! If they sat any more on the fence they would need to be surgically removed from it ! And Im also whinning about my recent holiday in hawaii where they had 2 inches more rain than normal while I was there BLAH !

Im going for a less extreme version of 2008 When will the first named storm form? 2nd week of June Which storm will be the first hurricane? Cindy Which storm will be the first major hurricane? Cindy Which storm will be the first Cat5? N/A Which storm will be the strongest? Jose Which storm will be the last? Ophelia When the last storm will form? 1st week November How many landfalls will the US have? 4

The amount of ash does not specifically have anything to do with the eruption event itself. (whether an eruption is occuring or not) Ash is a bi-product caused by the interaction of the magma with other debris, once the debris is cleared then you have a lava flow only if an eruption is still going. (Grimsvotn has previously had one of the longest lava flows in recorded icelandic history - long eruption with no ash) Most ash in Icelandic eruptions is caused by the interaction with the glacier shelf. There is a possibility that a seperate fissure may erupt on the shelf which would create additional ash....

I cannot help but see that the ash cloud zone on the met link looks more and more like a pterodactyl

ABSOLUTELY : I have been reading with interest some news agencies 'spin' on proceedings, seems to be a bit of downplaying going on.. I often turn to this blog regarding Iceland volcanoes : short and sweet and sensible : http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/

I noticed this tidbit in NOAA Hurricane Outlook "La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season." Tying in nicely with part of the forecast

There is a nice burst of lightning / storm activity off the coast of France in the extreme SW of the channel according to the Meteox radar... A harbringer of things to come for the SW / Wales ?

Hello All : Thankfully managed to get hold of all relatives in Christchurch this morning and apart form a few cuts and bruises they are all well thankfully. My heart goes out to those who are not so fortunate (thanks for your support here on the forum). In the September earthquake the only damage one of my relatives suffered was a loss of about a foot of water out of the pool. this time the pool is a write off as is a section fo the house.. goes to show what a difference quake depth makes (and type of quake). Interesting from New Zealand geologists is that they believe the quake is on a completely seperate fault line to the September quake and their is debate about whether it was a 'true' aftershock or not...

I have extended family in Christchurch, one of them works for the traffic department and last time I managed to get through to NZ has still not been seen so hoping for good news... Part of the reason I moved to UK permenantly - apparent less % chance of natural disaster though my thoughts are of course with everyone in Christchurch at this horrible time. By the way - Liquefication is the very last thing you want to see from a rebuilding / emergency services sense - but at the same time it does lessen the impact from further quakes due to the structual change in the soil below ground.

Extremely nasty !